US House Redistricting: Tennessee

[dpmapper]

Do you think the GOP would try to knock out Cooper by chopping up Davidson into 4 pieces?  I'm sure it wouldn't be hard if they were so inclined, but I don't know what the political culture is down there. 

[dpmapper]

I did more or less the same thing as RBH above, but with some numbers:





Basically, this keeps all the Republicans quite safe, and turns TN-05 into a not quite safe, but  strongly leaning, GOP seat.  There is absolutely no downside to this for the GOP that I can see.  

I'm using Bush '04 numbers to gauge things, seeing as Obama's candidacy skews a lot of the numbers in Appalachia.  

TN-01, -02, and -03 (blue, green, purple) are all still uber-safe, of course.  I strung them out to take in the most Dem-friendly counties within reach (though even those counties are probably lean-Republican of late).  

TN-04 (red, Scott DesJarlais) was already 58-41 Bush, but I now have it at 59.4-39.8.  I think Al Gore lost this district in 2000 the way I have it drawn.  

TN-06 (teal, Diane Black) picks up most of Davidson north of the river.  It's still at 56.7-42.7 Bush (down from 60-40).  

TN-07 (grey, Marsha Blackburn) takes in southwest Davidson.  My count has it at 57.6-41.7 Bush.  

TN-08 (lavender, Stephen Fincher) gets the biggest boost.  His previous district was at 53-46 Bush, but even before I add in the Memphis suburbs in Shelby County (sample precinct: 1035-264 in favor of Bush) he's at 56.6-42.9.  

TN-09 is now 66% black.  

Finally, TN-05 (yellow): I'm going to guess that Cooper's house is now in TN-06, but no matter.  He'd run here, rather than try to take on Blackburn on her turf.  My math says that the district runs 54.7-44.6 Bush, compared to 47-52 previously.  Is that enough?  Everyone is saying that Cooper has won in rural districts before, but that was during a time when Blue Dogs weren't getting booted out left and right.  He's amassed a somewhat more liberal voting line during his last stint in a safe district (e.g., voting for the health care bill) and that will be hard to run away from.  Even if he can still win he'll be forced to shift back rightward.  

[dpmapper]

That's annoying.  I read his website and it said something about Sherwood TN, but now that I look more closely, that's where he goes to church. 

Anyway, we can exchange Sequatchie County for half of Marion... not a big deal. 

[dpmapper]

Ack, just noticed I wasn't using the new population estimates.  I drew a new map, but I really don't feel like recalculating just yet.  Maybe after Christmas. 

[dpmapper]

OK, here's the new version. 

Districts 1/2/3 in East Tennessee are still very safe for the Pubbies.  TN-04 (red) now contains DesJarlais's home and is at 59.8-39.4 Bush, not counting two half-counties in the east which are safely GOP anyway.  This is up from 58-41. 

TN-08, in lavender, is at 55.6-43.8 Bush BEFORE adding in the Memphis suburbs, which should bump it up even more.  Up from 53-46 previously. 

That leaves 5-6-7 in the middle.  I've calculated that, combined, they are at 56.7-42.6 Bush.  It's a pain sorting through the Davidson divide, since the precinct labels from the TN SoS don't always match the ones in the app, so I haven't bothered.  It should be relatively easy to divide Davidson in such a way that Blackburn and Black get 57%+ Bush districts and Cooper gets a 55% Bush district.  Cooper's old TN-05 was 52-47 Kerry.  Black is down slightly from 60% Bush, but given that she won by almost 40% in her first try...

[dpmapper]

You're not going to get anything remotely pretty or truly safe for the entire period if you split Nashville. Far wiser to leave it alone (not sure Reps will take my advice, obviously, but yes I consider it likely).

Not pretty, sure, but it's much less ugly than a lot of other states.  You could easily make most of the lines within Davidson County fairly logical. 

As for the "not safe over the entire period"... you think Tennessee is trending blue?!  Nashville itself might be but suburban growth will outpace it.  And yes, the suburban counties will get less red, percentage-wise, over time, but that's because they started at 70% GOP and the people moving in are only 60% GOP - in other words, not helpful from the Democratic point of view.  And of course the rural areas are still moving strongly rightward. 

[dpmapper]

With three districts at 57, 57, 55% Bush, you MIGHT lose 2-3 out of the 15 elections that will occur with these lines.  Whereas if you keep the Davidson district and keep Black and Blackburn packed, you'll definitely lose 4-5.  That's a trade-off you take. 

[dpmapper]

I don't think keeping a Memphis-to-Nashville district is going to make anyone happy.  Fincher is gong to have to suck it up and take in the Memphis 'burbs. 

Incidentally, it appears that, since DRA doesn't include the early/absentee votes, its figures are about 1% skewed in the R direction.  It has McCain winning with 57.9% when in reality he only took 56.9%.