2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[kwabbit]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

[kwabbit]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

You're assuming that the dynamics of an uncompetitive safe-seat race would obtain in a scenario where LA-05 is top Democratic target -- that seems like an unlikely assumption to make!

I'm not deeply familiar with Letlow, so I suppose it's possible that she overperforms, maybe even by a lot, but the political context of a safe seat mid term election against noname opposition is radically different than what the new seat is likely to be, which is one of the most Biden-voting seats held by a Republican in the country.

Dynamics would be a lot different, but the Dems will have to completely clear the field or it will be hard to get above 50%. The jungle primary is a hindrance, as is Letlow's strength. I think the median scenario would probably be Biden winning the district 54-45, The D-R vote in the primary being 52-48 but where enough Dems run where it's really like 44 top D, 45 Letlow, etc. Then it goes to the runoff where Black turnout may drop further.

Also, Letlow did a lot better than Kennedy did in the Senate race against a different set of no-name candidates. I guess Gary Chambers is fine, but no one paid any attention to this race. I think she is genuinely strong; a telegenic single mother might be better suited to win over Black voters than a crotchety old racist White guy.

[kwabbit]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

You're assuming that the dynamics of an uncompetitive safe-seat race would obtain in a scenario where LA-05 is top Democratic target -- that seems like an unlikely assumption to make!

I'm not deeply familiar with Letlow, so I suppose it's possible that she overperforms, maybe even by a lot, but the political context of a safe seat mid term election against noname opposition is radically different than what the new seat is likely to be, which is one of the most Biden-voting seats held by a Republican in the country.

Dynamics would be a lot different, but the Dems will have to completely clear the field or it will be hard to get above 50%. The jungle primary is a hindrance, as is Letlow's strength. I think the median scenario would probably be Biden winning the district 54-45, The D-R vote in the primary being 52-48 but where enough Dems run where it's really like 44 top D, 45 Letlow, etc. Then it goes to the runoff where Black turnout may drop further.

Also, Letlow did a lot better than Kennedy did in the Senate race against a different set of no-name candidates. I guess Gary Chambers is fine, but no one paid any attention to this race. I think she is genuinely strong; a telegenic single mother might be better suited to win over Black voters than a crotchety old racist White guy.

My point is that it's wildly speculative to assume that a Republican would win a highly Democratic, majority Black district in the most polarized region of the country, especially one which is likely to attract a high quality group of candidates.

I'm not counting Letlow out -- she can win if things go her way -- but the priors of anyone in analyzing this sort of district should rate her as an extreme underdog and the fact that people are saying otherwise kind of smells like cope to me.

This is especially true given that we don't even know what this district will look like. Redistricters, especially in Southern states, have a tendency to respond to court ordered VRA districts with higher than needed amount of packing, designed to make sure they comply with the ruling. They could decide to sabotage Graves instead, or draw a Shreveport-Baton Rouge district like Oryxslayer made before, which I believe would double-bunk Letlow and Johnson. All of these are possibilities, and we should wait before we assume that Julia Letlow is the next David Valadao or something.

I don’t think Letlow would win every configuration of such a district, in fact in the Biden +10 one we’re talking about she’d probably lose too. A Biden +10 district implies that it is not maximally Black and also doesn’t take in any EBR liberal Whites. This makes the district one with R favorable trends, one that is more racially polarized, and one that is more similar to Letlow’s current district. If the district is Biden +14 or more EBR centered then she’d lose.

The drawer of the map could definitely assume that the district must be drawn in a way that Letlow is guaranteed to lose. I’ve seen plenty of people argue that Valadao’s district is not Hispanic enough/not a functioning VRA district since he’s still winning. Or the district could be more compact and barely a majority, something like Biden +8. It’d be hard to argue that’s not VRA compliant even if Letlow squeaks it out.

Again, the jungle primary makes it nearly certain to go to a December runoff. The Democrats would have to clear the field completely to avoid that. Plenty of EBR legislators are lining up for this. I would be very surprised if there weren’t a few serious Dem candidates. Runoffs can vary a lot obviously. Black turnout could fall sharply in which case Letlow would be in a stronger position, or it could be strong a la GA 2021 and guarantee a loss for Letlow.


 

[kwabbit]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

Letlow is a generic Trumpy, pro-insurrection Republican backbencher with no crossover appeal.  The race would be Safe D even with a meh Democratic nominee.  Even if black turnout collapsed, she’d have no path to victory absent the Democrat having a bonafide Roy Moore-tier scandal.  No offense, but any suggestion otherwise is simply Republican wishcasting.  

There is no reason to think she’d have anything resembling crossover appeal, especially not with African-American voters.  If LA gets a second AA seat (and it likely will), then she’s gone and it won’t be very close either.  Probably not even a mildly competitive race tbh.

The runoff is more of a factor than Letlow’s strength. Differential turnout is enough to impact the result in that if it’s a more conservative drawing of the district. There’s a lot of room between Biden +7 and Biden +15 and both could be realistically be drawn. My argument is moot if it’s close to the top end.

The district is racially polarized, but that doesn’t make it allergic to swings. Biden’s margin is ten points lower than Obamas in some of these districts. The area has a longer term R trend and it swung strongly in 2022. It is possible for runoff differential turnout to make it competitive if it’s Biden +10 in a high turnout environment.

[kwabbit]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

Letlow is a generic Trumpy, pro-insurrection Republican backbencher with no crossover appeal.  The race would be Safe D even with a meh Democratic nominee.  Even if black turnout collapsed, she’d have no path to victory absent the Democrat having a bonafide Roy Moore-tier scandal.  No offense, but any suggestion otherwise is simply Republican wishcasting.  

There is no reason to think she’d have anything resembling crossover appeal, especially not with African-American voters.  If LA gets a second AA seat (and it likely will), then she’s gone and it won’t be very close either.  Probably not even a mildly competitive race tbh.

The runoff is more of a factor than Letlow’s strength. Differential turnout is enough to impact the result in that if it’s a more conservative drawing of the district. There’s a lot of room between Biden +7 and Biden +15 and both could be realistically be drawn. My argument is moot if it’s close to the top end.

The district is racially polarized, but that doesn’t make it allergic to swings. Biden’s margin is ten points lower than Obamas in some of these districts. The area has a longer term R trend and it swung strongly in 2022. It is possible for runoff differential turnout to make it competitive if it’s Biden +10 in a high turnout environment.

Even in a runoff, it’d take a Roy Moore-tier scandal for her to win.

Fair enough, what do you think the median outcome is in a Biden +10, 51% BVAP district for Biden vs. Trump 2024, the cumulative D vs. R in the jungle primary, and in the subsequent runoff if it’s necessary?