2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/tekken_guy/status/1667326977882177541

It’s possible to make a Black-majority LA-05 as close as Biden+4. Cassidy won this seat and someone like Letlow can pull a Gerald Greene and hold it as long as she wants.

Maps like this are put up a lot by DRA users on twitter and atlas on how to "cheat" the VRA ruling, but pretty much never pass through the court and become reality.

The whole point of a VRA section 2 district is that the voters of the minority race can reliably elect the candidate of their choice, especially if the opposition bloc votes against the minority race, which is definitely the case in Louisiana and Alabama.

The lawyers know this, the courts know this, the politicians know this, it just won't happen.

There’s a reason the rural black seats in NC and GA still stand. If it looks like cheating, then it’s probably cheating.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So the chance SC is gonna get a second congressional district have gone up exponentially. At this point I think even in NC republicans are only going to gain one seat. RIP Jeff Jackson.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.    

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.    

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances.  

This is weapons-grade wishcasting.  Letlow wanted to overturn the 2020 election.  She’s a generic Republican nutjob with no crossover appeal whatsoever.  Nothing moderate about her.  

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.    

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.    

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances.  

That's not a completive race, outside of freak circumstances no republican even one with moderate appeal is able to win black voters in substantial number especially in the deep south.  They can win black majority districts if the differential turnout is high enough, but given her district will include a substansial number of college educated liberal voters that won't be that helpful to her here.

....you have obviously never been to Baton Rouge LOL

Letlow is going to win more Black voters than a "normal" Republican in these circumstances.  If differential turnout is high enough, she could win the race.    

Imagine actually believing this

What I’m assuming is happening is that women are perceived to be more liberal then they actually are, even if they have the same policies, that’s why Klobuchar was seen as a progressive and Warren was seen as Sanders ideological equal. But yea when rubber hits the road these notions are dispelled.

Baton Rouge has a lively black liberal activist base with the likes of Gary Chambers and Sadie Roberts-Joseph. In the LA-02 Special in 2021 Chambers’s best area was Baton Rouge. So yea I don’t imagine Letlow will be able to win over this seat as a republican

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Why do Landry and Graves hate each other?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1748131036997853305

Louisiana definitely not afraid of border gore.

Are they drawing LSU into Higgins’s seat?!

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If they’re gonna just make it as ugly as possible I demand they bring back the border hugging graphic glitch that was the 1993-1994 4th district. It even was Fields seat!

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Honestly if Scalise could move to Slidell that’d be great