Control of Congressional Redistricting as of 2018 elections

[Oryxslayer]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

I suggest you add a "lean" category for those states with weak commissions or laws regarding redistricting.
-KY as said has a law preventing cutting counties over 1 CD, which practically means that the partisan balance of the state cannot change - but KY06 probably becomes more Pub.
-OH as stated has a commission but it is a partisan one. Most people I have talked with agree the commission will give dems a competitive seat or two and reinforce their existing seats in exchange for allowing pubs to gerry the rest of the state.
-NY has a law requiring a independent mapper. But the legislature, if unified, can reject the commissioners maps and draw their own.
-MO similarly now requires a special nonpartisan appointee to draw said maps. probably means the 6-2 divide continues.
-FL similarly has the fair districts amendment, which requires centralized districts with ideally competitive PVIs, and requires more Majority-Minority districts then the VRA necessitates. Though considering what happened in 2011, its questionable if the republicans would respect said guidelines.
 

[Oryxslayer]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

I suggest you add a "lean" category for those states with weak commissions or laws regarding redistricting.
-KY as said has a law preventing cutting counties over 1 CD, which practically means that the partisan balance of the state cannot change - but KY06 probably becomes more Pub.
-OH as stated has a commission but it is a partisan one. Most people I have talked with agree the commission will give dems a competitive seat or two and reinforce their existing seats in exchange for allowing pubs to gerry the rest of the state.
-NY has a law requiring a independent mapper. But the legislature, if unified, can reject the commissioners maps and draw their own.
-MO similarly now requires a special nonpartisan appointee to draw said maps. probably means the 6-2 divide continues.
-FL similarly has the fair districts amendment, which requires centralized districts with ideally competitive PVIs, and requires more Majority-Minority districts then the VRA necessitates. Though considering what happened in 2011, its questionable if the republicans would respect said guidelines.
 

Iowa is literally a computer that draws the lines at random.

The computer generates maps that have very low levels of distribution. If I recall from 2010, the legislature then picked certain maps they liked from said generation.

[Oryxslayer]

- IA has a strong commission. As said, by others, it will be respected but like all commissions, still be influenced by the republican majority.
-ME and CT need 2/3s majorities. Practically this means little change, though such change probably benefits the party in power like 2010 where the minuscule changes in ME benefited pubs, and CT dems.
-MD as stated is dem controlled.
-UT has a commission though the legislature may ignore it the statutory law. Considering UT republicans tend to Rule of Law types, the commission probably holds barring Chaffetz becoming Gov.
-CO adopted a new commission this Month that has to be respected.

Pretty much this, except that I believe KS Republicans can also override the Democratic governor.

They can, but Republicans are only like two seats over the two thirds mark in the House and there are some moderate Republicans that would not agree to pass a map that goes too crazy.

It is important to remember that Pubs had a trifecta in 2010, but the map ended up as court drawn because of the moderate/radical and suburban/rural splits.

[Oryxslayer]

could bel edwards get two vra districts?

No because reps will have a near super majority by 2022 and Cedric Richmond needs to win with 80 percent so he will tell no democrats to vote against 2 60 percent dem districts.

Richmond would have no problem in a 60% Dem district.

Black dems want 80 percent districts. They will backstab fellow democrats like Russ carnahan

He can frankly have a 75% district in only New Orleans and the region south of Baton, the other seat can be something like D+7 and go diagonal from Shreveport to Baton. Mind you this is with 2010 numbers, which is the big question regarding LA redistricting. In 2010, the was still Katrina fallout, but by 2012 people had moved back fully into New Orleans. With AAs moving south, it might be possible to see LA crack 33% AA. If so, then it becomes a case of "can we draw to BVAP" seats rather than "will we draw two BVAP seats."

[Oryxslayer]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned.  

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

If everything goes the Republicans way in this battle, then the legislature will just cut Trone loose and ensure the remaining six are safe forever. I'm also fairly sure a district solely with PG and other Dem areas counts as illegal racial packing.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe the Republican SCOTUS majority will just vote down Democratic gerrymanders and not bother with setting precedents.

Roberts and Kavanaugh will rule that it is OK for Republicans to gerrymander, but not OK for Democrats to gerrymander.

I mean as much as a few conservatives on the court want to say this (Kavanaugh), we are a nation of laws that apply to everyone.  If they uphold the Maryland case, it will be used by dems everywhere as precedent to chuck out Pub maps. This is what ascending to the Supreme court does, it gives you a Long-Range Perspective. It is in the conservative majorities interest to let dems have this one seat for two years, rather then give pubs the seat and open the door to many more future pub losses.

So, I guess I would love them to set precedent that Gerrymandering violates an individuals First Amendment rights, because it gives us as a nation a position from which we can throw out not just racial gerrymanders but political gerrymanders.

[Oryxslayer]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

[Oryxslayer]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

NY-22 being eliminated probably helps Stefanik - her seat could stand to gain parts of Oneida, which is reliably R turf.

Much of Oneida would go to Brindisi, while Stefanik would pick up Oswego and maybe Cayuga and the rest of Herkimer, which she'd be fine with.

It's not what she gets, it's WHO she gets. Brindisi's from Utica. And NY21 is less Pub then NY22, even with Oneida attached. It also has some Dem areas like the Canadian border that I could see trending back towards the Dems, whereas NY21s non-Binghampton areas are a harder lift for Dems.

Basically, there are three upstate scenarios right now:
-Stefanik vs Brindisi - very bad for GOP but the natural fair scenario
-Katko vs Reed - Bad if the Trumpists are still around
-Katko vs Brindisi - good for Pubs, since Katko is already living on borrowed time until Dems really find a quality candidate, pour money into the seat, and perhaps pair Ithica with Syracuse. This however requires gerrymandering.

[Oryxslayer]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

NY-22 being eliminated probably helps Stefanik - her seat could stand to gain parts of Oneida, which is reliably R turf.

Much of Oneida would go to Brindisi, while Stefanik would pick up Oswego and maybe Cayuga and the rest of Herkimer, which she'd be fine with.

It's not what she gets, it's WHO she gets. Brindisi's from Utica. And NY21 is less Pub then NY22, even with Oneida attached. It also has some Dem areas like the Canadian border that I could see trending back towards the Dems, whereas NY21s non-Binghampton areas are a harder lift for Dems.

Basically, there are three upstate scenarios right now:
-Stefanik vs Brindisi - very bad for GOP but the natural fair scenario
-Katko vs Reed - Bad if the Trumpists are still around
-Katko vs Brindisi - good for Pubs, since Katko is already living on borrowed time until Dems really find a quality candidate, pour money into the seat, and perhaps pair Ithica with Syracuse. This however requires gerrymandering.

Why would Stefanik vs Brindisi be bad for the GOP? Stefanik is one of their strongest incumbents, and placing them in the same district is the most likely scenario for Brindisi getting defeated in 2022.

If it's a Dem midterm, then yes. If it's a Trump midterm, I put her fate at no better then 50-50.