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Wakie
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« on: January 25, 2005, 11:18:09 AM »

While I agree that if he had run he would have won, I doubt Reagan would have gone for a third term.  Although the official announcement of his Alzheimer's came in 1994, there is speculation that he had already begun to feel the affects of it much sooner.

I see a more likely case for a post-FDR President going for a third term is Eisenhower in '60.  Despite the heart attack I think he would have wanted to stick around to deal with Cuba.  And if he stays, JFK doesn't run.  Eisenhower easily gets a third term.  This means better coordination of the Bay of Pigs invasion and a greater presence in Vietnam sooner.

Let's assume that Oswald, upset over the US intervention in Cuba, then assassinates Eisenhower in '63.  Now there is President Nixon.  Nixon wins reelection in '64 over LBJ (mainly because of a wave sympathy after Ike's murder).

There is no Civil Rights/Great Society legislation.  The war in Vietnam escalates.  In '68 JFK (w/ John Connally as his VP ... in this timeline Connally doesn't flip parties) defeats Nixon and begins serious peace talks.  Before his term is finished JFK has brokered peace with Vietnam and his brother, Bobby, is aggressively attacking organized crime.

In '72 JFK wins relection.  Kennedy presses on Congress and passes a watered down version of Civil Rights legislation.  As Attorney General Bobby Kennedy begins using it to bust up the KKK.

Someone else can figure out the rest.
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Wakie
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Posts: 3,767


« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2005, 01:19:47 PM »

If Richard Nixon had been elected in 1960, Vietnam would never have gotten out of control.

Keep on dreaming.  Vietnam was a gigantic disaster.  The only way to avoid it getting out of hand would have been to pull out in '62.
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Wakie
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« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2005, 01:51:20 PM »
« Edited: January 25, 2005, 01:54:35 PM by Wakie »

Ok, the US forces in Vietnam won every battle and yet we lost the war.  The reason is because the enemy had no where to go.  Put simply,

If (Cost of Defeat) < (Cost of Victory - Spoils of Victory)
Then you will lose a war of attrition.
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Wakie
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Posts: 3,767


« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2005, 10:07:27 AM »

While I agree that if he had run he would have won, I doubt Reagan would have gone for a third term.  Although the official announcement of his Alzheimer's came in 1994, there is speculation that he had already begun to feel the affects of it much sooner.

I see a more likely case for a post-FDR President going for a third term is Eisenhower in '60.  Despite the heart attack I think he would have wanted to stick around to deal with Cuba.  And if he stays, JFK doesn't run.  Eisenhower easily gets a third term.  This means better coordination of the Bay of Pigs invasion and a greater presence in Vietnam sooner.

Let's assume that Oswald, upset over the US intervention in Cuba, then assassinates Eisenhower in '63.  Now there is President Nixon.  Nixon wins reelection in '64 over LBJ (mainly because of a wave sympathy after Ike's murder).

There is no Civil Rights/Great Society legislation.  The war in Vietnam escalates.  In '68 JFK (w/ John Connally as his VP ... in this timeline Connally doesn't flip parties) defeats Nixon and begins serious peace talks.  Before his term is finished JFK has brokered peace with Vietnam and his brother, Bobby, is aggressively attacking organized crime.

In '72 JFK wins relection.  Kennedy presses on Congress and passes a watered down version of Civil Rights legislation.  As Attorney General Bobby Kennedy begins using it to bust up the KKK.

Someone else can figure out the rest.

Oswald would have had no reason to assasinate Eisenhower, even if he did kill Kennedy, which of course is HIGHLY suspect to begin with.

Well, for the sake of simplicity let us accept the Warren Commission findings.  Oswald's motive was basically that he was crazy.  Also he resented American interference in Cuba.  He absolutely would have motive to go after Eisenhower (Ike being President may have even resulted in the success of Bay of Pigs).
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