FL: Rereredistricting

[windjammer]

Torie or Muon or anyone else,
Could you draw the least changes for the republicans please?

[windjammer]

So in the end, are FL democrats going to pick up new seats?

[windjammer]

Here is my best effort for a Florida map. I just started over from scratch. FL-26 has less than 1% Pub PVI as it turns out. FL-18 is at a 3% Pub PVI, FL-07 is at 2% Pub PVI. Other than FL-13 at a Dem 3% PVI, everything else is safe for one party or the other. FL-20 strikes me as Constitutionally suspect (racial gerrymander breaking every line drawing rule in the book), but that is just me. Nobody else seems to mind, so I went with the flow. One think FL-20 does do, is drive where the lines are at the southern end of FL-18.



 Could you give the numbers please?

[windjammer]

What numbers do you want? I gave the highlights above. I just moved FL-22 and FL-21 around, so that FL-22 is almost entirely in Broward County now. The previous configuration was the remnants of a Pub gerrymander of old, and is just not justifiable.

Well for each district the result of the 2008 presidential election.
Thanks,
WJ

[windjammer]

Torie,
Why didn't they simply back your redistricting plan. It appears this is much more favorable to the dems.

And could you give the estimates for this please too?
Thanks!

[windjammer]

Apparently, Cuberlos' seat is becoming more rep.

[windjammer]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tp4InZCDMrwOery63f5F-EhU8-JDENFMITvI0tniun0/htmlview?pli=1&sle=true#gid=284402054

They really wanted to kill Graham politically.

[windjammer]

Ros Lehtinen's seat is becoming more democratic (Obama won by 9 now), while Curbelos is becoming less democrat (but still won by Obama by a 4 points margin)

[windjammer]

Some analysts on twitter believe that this plan risks to be struck down because of CD9.

[windjammer]

I assume this new plan will hurt the Republicans. How many seats could it cost them?

Well, they might not lose any seat. Here is the best scenario for FL Republicans:
-They will pick up Graham's seat and they will lose Webster's district and Jolly's district. But they would pick up Murphy's district.
-Lehtinen, Cuberlos and Mica all are elected.
Result: no net change.

The best scenario for dem:
-Gwen Graham's district is picked up by the biggest moron Southerland: R+1
-Webster's district and Jolly's district are picked up: D+2
-Joe Mica retires or gets defeated either in the primary or in the general: D+1
-Cuberlos still loses (I mean his district has still been won by Obama by 4.2 points): D+1
-Lehtinen finally loses (her district has been won by 9 points by Obama in 2012) or decides to retire: D+1
So Democrats could pick up 4 district with the new districts. Of course that won't happen .
Democrats will likely hold the same number of districts of pick up 1 seat. But yeah, the new districts are much more favorable to them. I mean, Graham's district was already a republican leaning seat after all.

[windjammer]

The consideration of a full Leon/partial Jax map may be the only thing right now that's preventing Gwen Graham from closing up shop (with the potential for a more divided Orlando doing the same for Webster).

Could you explain please?

[windjammer]

Has someone the numbers about the potential changes?

[windjammer]

Any big changes between these versions and the initial version?

[windjammer]

Sjoyce and other Floridans,
Could you confirm the GOP is literally stupid?

[windjammer]

Sjoyce and other Floridans,
Could you confirm the GOP is literally stupid?

There have been a number of cunning and devious leaders throughout the past few decades who have turned the RPOF into a formidable political force.

Blaise Ingoglia is not one of them.

Wait, why are Republicans "letting this happen"?

Because there's no "Republicans" - the Republicans in the House and the Republicans in the Senate have different aims and interests.

And can Graham be saved in the end?

[windjammer]

Maybe Mica could be in trouble?

[windjammer]

Non one could try to draw an "independent" map?

[windjammer]

Non one could try to draw an "independent" map?

The judge can draw his own map, or adopt the maps proposed by the League of Women Voters/Common Cause/National Council of La Raza.

Any analysis of the League of Women Voters map?

[windjammer]

I absolutely understand nothing about what you're saying.

[windjammer]

Could the anti gerrymandering amendment be invalidated by the federal supreme court?

[windjammer]

Could the anti gerrymandering amendment be invalidated by the federal supreme court?

No. It is within the provenance of the states to do what they want, as long as it does not screw minorities per the US Constitution, or the VRA statute, and honors the one person, one vote, rule.

Thank your for your quick reponse, my favorite republican lawyer .

[windjammer]

Could the anti gerrymandering amendment be invalidated by the federal supreme court?

No. It is within the provenance of the states to do what they want, as long as it does not screw minorities per the US Constitution, or the VRA statute, and honors the one person, one vote, rule.

Thank your for your quick reponse, my favorite republican lawyer .

Thank you. I am a registered Democrat now however.

Wait, this is serious? I thought that was a joke like Lief being a republican.

[windjammer]

Seriously, when a new map will be adopted?

[windjammer]

The latest pawn move is that Senator Galvano instructed staff to come up with a map with certain parameters intended to accommodate the concerns of both the Senate and the House, and staff came up with this. The House leader on redistricting thinks it has potential. It most certainly does from a Pub partisan standpoint. FL-09 on the map per my calculations has about a dead even PVI (46% McCain). So if this map flies, the Dems pick up FL-10, lose FL-02, are favored to win FL-13, and FL-09 is a tossup, so the Pubs either break even, or lose one seat out of the whole thing.

Torie, do you have any FL governor and 2012 results for this district?

[windjammer]

Assuming FL-05 as drawn is Unconstitutional as a racial gerrymander, or at least generates chops that are unnecessary for the CD to elect a black (which is certainly the case), and given that the scoring system used rewards concentrating multiple chops in single counties, I wonder if the map below is the cat's meow. It trichops Lake and Columbia Counties to game the scoring system for chop counts. And FL-10 is equally as minority performing as the versions that are in the maps submitted to the court. Maybe I should have figured out how to intervene in the case. The Judge would have lapped up my FL-05 like a very thirsty man after having crossed the desert in a camel ala Lawrence of Arabia.



And although not legally required, it does get the Hispanic population up a bit in FL-09, while leaving the CD pretty safely Dem, making Mr. Isbell (who also would love my FL-05) and the Dems happy on that front, leaving them with just the FL-26 and FL-27 issue to bitch about, which issue I suspect they are going to lose on.

Wait, now TORIE draws maps that would favor the democrats more than the statut quo? What's going on?