From FHQ:
http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/snyders-signature-sends-michigan.htmlSnyder has signed the bill that would move Michigan's primary to March 8, so it's no longer scheduled to be pre-Super Tuesday.
So at present, we have the following situation: Four states (IA/NH/NV/SC) are allowed by the two parties to have pre-Super Tuesday primary/caucus dates. However, the tentative schedule has four other early states listed:
http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/p/2016-presidential-primary-calendar.htmlThose are CO, NY, UT, and NC. CO comes with an asterisk, because the state parties have the option to either go with the first Tuesday or February or the first Tuesday of March, and everyone expects them to pick the latter. UT also comes with an asterisk, as the legislature has yet to vote to allocate the funding for the primary. Everyone expects that if they do so, they will also move the primary later.
New York…the legislature is in session all year, and everyone expects them to move later.
So the one remaining question mark is North Carolina. It sounds like at least some Republicans in North Carolina are happy to leave the North Carolina primary where it is, which is three days after South Carolina:
http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/north-carolina-staying-rogue-for-2016.htmlWhether this view prevails or not is unclear. At present, if NC sticks with a pre-March 1 primary, then they suffer the new "super penalty", which means they lose more than 80% of their delegates. Is the state really cool with such a stiff penalty? Will the candidates even bother to commit the resources to campaign in such a big state if there's such a small number of delegates at stake? I guess we'll find out.
