Undecided Analysis Shows More Upside for Obama

[Beet]

This is something that I've been meaning to do for a while. The polls this year seem to have an unusually large number of undecideds compared to 4 years ago. A big question mark-- arguably the biggest, is which direction these undecideds will go.

Taking the percentage that each candidate actually gets based on their average polling score at pollster.com as a base below which, barring a dramatic turn of events, they are unlikely to fall, even as the campaign gears up, but while at the same time admitting the possibility that the undecided vote could break decisively one way or another, I calculate the best and worst case "plausible" scenarios for Obama and McCain. What does the race look like if 85% of the undecideds break for Obama? For McCain?

For example, Obama 46%, McCain 41% on Pollster.com. The undecided size is 13, 13x.85=11.05. McCain wins the state 52.05-47.95 if 85% of undecideds break toward him.

Map 1. Obama taps into the deep dissatisfaction at the direction the country is going and connects with his message of unity, hope and procedural change in politics, while contrasting and defining McCain with traditional Washington politics and the Bush administration. Race ceases to become a factor as other issues take precedence.. 85% of undecideds break toward Obama.

Map 2. 1988 all over again. McCain rides his war hero status and experience to contrast and define Obama as an arrogant out of touch elitist and inexperienced, as well as too liberal, and working class whites and moderates flock to McCain. 85% of undecideds break toward McCain.

[HardRCafé]

Even in the first scenario, plenty else would flip before Georgia and South Carolina.

[Beet]

Even in the first scenario, plenty else would flip before Georgia and South Carolina.

Admittedly, Obama is holding on by the skin of his teeth in some states both scenarios-- Georgia (where McCain is polling at near 50) and Arkansas in the first, and New Jersey and Oregon in the second. On the other hand, McCain is barely holding onto Montana in the second scenario, since Obama is polling 48 there.

[Lunar]

Beet, how did you decide on 85%?

Also, one has to wonder if certain states produce more skewed undecideds due to lies and also if the Bradley effect, to some extent, would primarily cause people to say that they are undecided instead of stating that they support Obama.

Those numbers are not favorable, no matter how you slice it, for McCain in New Mexico or Wisconsin.

[Gustaf]

This is not an undecided analysis though. It's simply observing that Obama has a large lead.

Besides, it's not all about the undecideds at this point. Obviously, McCain is not going to win by getting undecideds if he's down 43-48 or something like that. A comeback would be based on peeling off Obama voters as well. Right now I think McCain needs about 70% of the undecideds to tie the race and that's not likely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People need to remember that the, what would be the best term... potential electorate perhaps... grows during the campaign. Obviously this happens everywhere, but it's easier to spot and more ordered in the U.S as campaigns are longer and more ritualistic. Looking at undecideds right now is probably a little silly. Mind you... the same applies to the polls and all the analysis and all the patterns of adverts and rallies in general. You can see all sorts of patterns, but things won't be formed until very late in the campaign. That's what makes following elections worth it, that's what makes looking at historical elections important.

Sorry if that doesn't make any sense.