Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.

Ah, I've kind of been saying that for a while.

Still, I expected an increase for McCain.  The favorable/unfavorable numbers are what I've expected, however.

[Ronnie]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.

Ah, I've kind of been saying that for a while.

Still, I expected an increase for McCain.  The favorable/unfavorable numbers are what I've expected, however.

What do you think the margin will be by Tuesday?

[Lief 🗽]

If McCain can't get ahead of Obama through the RNC, which should hypothetically be the high point of a candidate's campaign, then I just don't see him winning, short of something majorly changing the dynamics of the race (which is pretty much out of McCain's control).

[Umengus]

Party affiliation:

June: gap: 9,5% D
July: 7,5% D
August: 5,7% D

I would like to know their party id sample.

[Ronnie]

If McCain can't get ahead of Obama through the RNC, which should hypothetically be the high point of a candidate's campaign, then I just don't see him winning, short of something majorly changing the dynamics of the race (which is pretty much out of McCain's control).

Rasmussen hasn't even polled the race ahead of the Palin speech yet.  Hold your horses.

[Lief 🗽]

If McCain can't get ahead of Obama through the RNC, which should hypothetically be the high point of a candidate's campaign, then I just don't see him winning, short of something majorly changing the dynamics of the race (which is pretty much out of McCain's control).

Rasmussen hasn't even polled the race ahead of the Palin speech yet.  Hold your horses.

Yes they have: today and yesterday's releases.

[J. J.]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.

Ah, I've kind of been saying that for a while.

Still, I expected an increase for McCain.  The favorable/unfavorable numbers are what I've expected, however.

What do you think the margin will be by Tuesday?

I expect, on one of the polls, to see a +4 McCain or either Rasmussen or Gallup.  I have to admit, I thought the numbers today would be higher.

[Tender Branson]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.

Ah, I've kind of been saying that for a while.

Still, I expected an increase for McCain.  The favorable/unfavorable numbers are what I've expected, however.

What do you think the margin will be by Tuesday?

I expect, on one of the polls, to see a +4 McCain or either Rasmussen or Gallup.  I have to admit, I thought the numbers today would be higher.

It will be Obama by 2-4%.

[Ronnie]

If McCain can't get ahead of Obama through the RNC, which should hypothetically be the high point of a candidate's campaign, then I just don't see him winning, short of something majorly changing the dynamics of the race (which is pretty much out of McCain's control).

Rasmussen hasn't even polled the race ahead of the Palin speech yet.  Hold your horses.

Yes they have: today and yesterday's releases.

Quote from Rasmussen: "Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech."

[J. J.]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.

Ah, I've kind of been saying that for a while.

Still, I expected an increase for McCain.  The favorable/unfavorable numbers are what I've expected, however.

What do you think the margin will be by Tuesday?

I expect, on one of the polls, to see a +4 McCain or either Rasmussen or Gallup.  I have to admit, I thought the numbers today would be higher.

It will be Obama by 2-4%.

Right now it's +1 Obama.

I will be a clearer however.  At some point, the bounce will be +4 McCain on Gallup or Rasmussen.  I can't tell if Tuesday will be the peak day.

[Verily]

If McCain can't get ahead of Obama through the RNC, which should hypothetically be the high point of a candidate's campaign, then I just don't see him winning, short of something majorly changing the dynamics of the race (which is pretty much out of McCain's control).

Rasmussen hasn't even polled the race ahead of the Palin speech yet.  Hold your horses.

Yes they have: today and yesterday's releases.

Quote from Rasmussen: "Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech."

Yes, but two of the three data points from today are from after Palin's speech. Because we know the average numbers for every three-day set, we can extrapolate what the results from any given night were. Obama led by a point or two in the data from both Thursday and yesterday, Thursday including Palin's speech and yesterday including both Palin's and McCain's speeches.

[Ronnie]

If McCain can't get ahead of Obama through the RNC, which should hypothetically be the high point of a candidate's campaign, then I just don't see him winning, short of something majorly changing the dynamics of the race (which is pretty much out of McCain's control).

Rasmussen hasn't even polled the race ahead of the Palin speech yet.  Hold your horses.

Yes they have: today and yesterday's releases.

Quote from Rasmussen: "Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech."

Yes, but two of the three data points from today are from after Palin's speech. Because we know the average numbers for every three-day set, we can extrapolate what the results from any given night were. Obama led by a point or two in the data from both Thursday and yesterday, Thursday including Palin's speech and yesterday including both Palin's and McCain's speeches.

Well, all I know is that by mid week next week, the polling results will be much cleaner.

[Sam Spade]

I want to clarify something I said earlier:  Whilst simple math, combined with the graphic posted above, means that it is most likely that the sample was about Obama +1, the sample could really be anywhere between a push to Obama +2.  Given that the fact the leaner numbers are Obama +1 for the three-day sample, I would place a much stronger bet that if it isn't Obama +1 for today, it's more likely to be a push than Obama +2.

I suspect most would agree.  Anyway, if there's a Obama +6 sample moving off tomorrow, it should get closer most likely.

But all in all, still be patient.  Nothing's written in stone, yet.

[KeyKeeper]

Sunday - September 6, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, +2)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 58% favorable, 40% unfavorable (nc, -1)

[J. J.]

Sunday - September 6, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, +2)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 58% favorable, 40% unfavorable (nc, -1)

We're seeing the bounce and the favorable/unfavorable ratings really do not look good for Obama.  The attacks are working, but how long is another matter.

[Zarn]

I know the conventions were a little close this year.

Would Obama still be getting some sort of DNC bounce? Aren't the convention bounces suppose to erode slowly?

Obama's peak from the bounce had been reached, but McCain could be hitting his or he may not be there yet.

[Sam Spade]

If Silver is right and Thursday was Obama +3.9%, Friday was Obama +0.3%, the odds are that Saturday was somewhere around McCain +4 or so.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - September 6, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, +2)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 58% favorable, 40% unfavorable (nc, -1)

McCain earns the vote from 89% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats. McCain also manages to attract 15% of Democrats while Obama gets 9% of the Republican vote. Voters not affiliated with either major party remain fairly evenly divided between the two men.

McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women. Forty-two percent (42%) of voters say that economic issues are most important this year and Obama holds a 34-point advantage among these voters.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters say the national security issues are most important. Among these voters its McCain by 39.

The Republican hopeful also leads by wide margins among those who consider fiscal issues or cultural issues most important. Obama leads among those primarily interested in domestic programs such as Social Security and health care.

Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 56%.

Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of voters including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of her. Biden earns positive reviews from 48% of voters.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% and 28% respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.

Saintly Sarah must be having an effect. She has put the "umph" back into the McCain campaign, I'll give her that much

Dave

[ucscgaldamez]

The almost double-digit lead McCain had two days ago among Independents is now gone. They are now even. When Rasmussen had said that a bounce was showing for McCain earlier it was mainly on Independents. But the numbers for them just keep changing. If Obama does well tonight, he will pass McCain among independents for tomorrow's update. McCain tying came about by Democrats reducing their share of support from 85%~ to about 81% now. Before the DNC started he was supported by 79% of Democrats. We'll see if it keeps going down or holds steady. If it goes up, then the limits McCain's gains. This race is essentially where it was before the conventions started.

[Tender Branson]

The almost double-digit lead McCain had two days ago among Independents is now gone. They are now even. When Rasmussen had said that a bounce was showing for McCain earlier it was mainly on Independents. But the numbers for them just keep changing. If Obama does well tonight, he will pass McCain among independents for tomorrow's update. McCain tying came about by Democrats reducing their share of support from 85%~ to about 81% now. Before the DNC started he was supported by 79% of Democrats. We'll see if it keeps going down or holds steady. If it goes up, then the limits McCain's gains. This race is essentially where it was before the conventions started.

He was ahead by double-digits among Independents ? Gallup for example had Obama ahead by about 4%. Even the recent dubious CBS poll had Obama ahead.

I don´t really think McCain will get a higher Republican share than Bush did in 2004. I think he'll get 92% of them. Let's say Obama gets 86% of Democrats. It will all come down to Indys again.

Democrats (40%): Obama 86%
Republicans (34%): McCain 92%
Independents (26%): Both 50%

Obama gets 50.1% overall.

[Sam Spade]

I'd be careful about reading too much into Independent shifting.  Basically, after the Democratic convention, you undoubtedly had X% of Independents start identifying as Democrats and perhaps X% of Republicans start identifying as Independents.  Naturally, that would translate into a greater margin for McCain.

After the Republican convention, a shift will occur.  Things will likely go back to the way they were and then X% of Independent will start identifying as Republicans and perhaps X% of Democrats will start identifying as Independents.

Rasmussen's not going to pick this party ID movement up any since he hard-weights the polls.  It's also the reason why Obama's bounce was less in his poll than in other polls and why McCain's will be less too.

[Zarn]

On election day, I don't think Obama will get 86% of Dems. Maybe 79-83%.

[Ronnie]

Woooo!  Go McCain bounce!

And it's not even done yet.  We're only after Palin's speech.  Tomorrow, I bet McCain emerges with a lead.

[Person Man]

Well have to see. McCain simply didn't have a good speech. I do think we will be where the convention started .

[Ronnie]

Well have to see. McCain simply didn't have a good speech. I do think we will be where the convention started .

Yeah, but he had a lot of viewers.  His actual speech was okay, he just didn't deliver it too well.

...Which is the opposite of Obama's speech.  If you read it on paper, it sounds like absolute demagoguery, but if you listen to his inspiring rhetoric, you may be entranced to think he is saying something important.

But yeah, carry on.