Kasich says he wont help Trump win Ohio

[Mr. Morden]

To clarify, he said he's under no obligation to help Trump win Ohio.  But how is that news?  We already know that he hasn't endorsed Trump, and has made clear that there's a good chance he won't endorse him in the future either.  He's obviously not going to help Trump win Ohio or anywhere else if he isn't supporting his candidacy.  So this is a non-story.

[Mr. Morden]

He ought to realize that he's not just hurting Trump here; he is actually is hurting Republicans across the entire nation because of down-ballot voting. For the sake of the party, he needs to play his role.

How does helping (or not) Trump perform well in Ohio have any bearing on downballot voting in other states?

[Mr. Morden]

He ought to realize that he's not just hurting Trump here; he is actually is hurting Republicans across the entire nation because of down-ballot voting. For the sake of the party, he needs to play his role.

How does helping (or not) Trump perform well in Ohio have any bearing on downballot voting in other states?

Because Trump is heading the ballots on all fifty states and voters pay attention to national politics, not just local. If they see Trump losing consistently in Ohio, then they might feel less inclined to vote GOP this cycle.

That sounds like a rather ridiculous scenario to be honest.  What evidence is there that voters in a general election have their votes influenced by the performance of a presidential candidate in the polls taken in other states?

[Mr. Morden]

He ought to realize that he's not just hurting Trump here; he is actually is hurting Republicans across the entire nation because of down-ballot voting. For the sake of the party, he needs to play his role.

How does helping (or not) Trump perform well in Ohio have any bearing on downballot voting in other states?

Because Trump is heading the ballots on all fifty states and voters pay attention to national politics, not just local. If they see Trump losing consistently in Ohio, then they might feel less inclined to vote GOP this cycle.

That sounds like a rather ridiculous scenario to be honest.  What evidence is there that voters in a general election have their votes influenced by the performance of a presidential candidate in the polls taken in other states?

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/05/19-down-ballot-president-election-effects-candidates-kamarck


Throughout history very popular presidential candidates have had “coat-tails,” meaning that the presidential candidate brought so many voters into their column that the other candidates got votes they didn’t even anticipate. And, of course, the opposite happens as well. Very unpopular presidential candidates often cause down-ballot candidates to lose. The following chart illustrates the point

That is different from coat-tails crossing state lines.  Show me the evidence that a presidential candidate's performance in Ohio has any bearing on congressional races in New York.  The congressional races in New York could be impacted by the presidential race in New York, but not Ohio.

[Mr. Morden]

That is different from coat-tails crossing state lines.  Show me the evidence that a presidential candidate's performance in Ohio has any bearing on congressional races in New York.  The congressional races in New York could be impacted by the presidential race in New York, but not Ohio.

No, it's not. That popular presidential candidates gain seats for the party nationwide (and unpopular presidential candidates lose seats for the party nationwide) indicates that a candidate's overall performance affects congressional (and mayoral & gubernatorial) races across the whole country.

A candidate that does well nationwide is outperforming their party's typical presidential performance in many states.  Their performance from state to state is *correlated* because it's the same candidate.  If he appeals to people in one state he has a good chance of appealing to people in another state.  But there are additional factors aside from the presidential candidate himself, including surrogates campaigning for them within targeted states (like the popular governor of Ohio).  But there's no reason to think that that kind of targeted appeal within a particular state is going to bleed over into other states.  I don't see why *that* contribution to a candidate's vote share would bleed over into other states.

[Mr. Morden]

Didn't Kasich say he will endorse whoever gets the Republican nomination in the debates?

So did Bush, Cruz, Fiorina, Graham, and Pataki.  But none of them have endorsed Trump either.

Of course, as Evergreen noted upthread, Trump himself said back in March that he didn't think the pledge applied anymore.