The absentee/early vote thread

[KingSweden]

Early surge in absentee requests from Youngstown, Ohio.

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http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/sep/15/requests-to-vote-by-mail-surge-above--le/?mobile

Hopefully a good sign.

I wouldn't be so sure. This is an area I expect to swing to Trump (though I think Clinton will very narrowly carry Mahoning)

[KingSweden]

Early surge in absentee requests from Youngstown, Ohio.

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http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/sep/15/requests-to-vote-by-mail-surge-above--le/?mobile

Hopefully a good sign.

I wouldn't be so sure. This is an area I expect to swing to Trump (though I think Clinton will very narrowly carry Mahoning)

Nah, Hillary will still crush him there.

Curious what your reasoning is (I know little of Youngstown area but heard estimates that between 20-30% of union members are voting for Trump)

[KingSweden]

I think early voting is just becoming more popular in general. It's probably too early to glean much more than that from this info.

[KingSweden]

Do Georgia absentee ballots usually skew pretty R?

[KingSweden]

He also noted this represents an improvement from 2012.

So it is an improvement, just not "huge D lead!" As some have interpreted. Still, fits CV of them doing better

[KingSweden]

FL already has over 2 million ballots requested, which split 43% R and 37% D (see post from TN volunteer slightly above).

In Mid-October 2014, there were also more than 2 million ballots requested in FL, and the split was 42% R, 39% D ...

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-picking-up-s_b_5973716.html

So a month ahead of schedule to hit same # of requested absentees? Interesting.

[KingSweden]

Maine absentee ballots stats as of 9/27

Thought the number for GOP in CD2 would be higher. Perhaps polls overstating GOP support or Dems crossing over? Too early to tell, alas

[KingSweden]

What are the party affiliation numbers like in Maine these days?


Isn't it plurality independent?

It wouldn't surprise me if that were he case

[KingSweden]

Not looking good for Trump. And what's up with Iowa? I thought it was Lean R or something?

Woah... did the IA ground-game suddenly just wake up?

Maybe Robby Mook DOES know what he's doing

[KingSweden]

Question: What states in early voting/absentee is Trump doing well in (if any) or holding his own against Clinton? This is my 2nd election voting so knew to all these stats.

So far, based on past results, Iowa

[KingSweden]

OTOH the Democrats registration edge continues to decline in Nevada.
What's up there?

It's not as far as I can tell. Democrats increased their edge in Active voters from August to September.

@RalstonReports

Partisan edge by registration:
2008 final: Ds +8.4 percent
2012 final: Ds +7.2 percent
2016 now: Ds +5.6 percent

Trend with a capital T.

Which rhymes with P, which stands for Pool!!

...sorry

[KingSweden]

This is a map of early ballot requests by county in Florida according to MyFlorida.com Some really interesting things to see, but I'm not sure what exactly is expected about this and unexpected. Might the strong Democratic showing in the North be enough to save Gwen Graham?

Gwen Graham isn't running, I don't think

[KingSweden]

From what I've been seeing in pictures of TN. Early voting turnout seems through the roof.

Man, good news for Trump in that all-important swing state!

[KingSweden]

Oregon

http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Documents/G16-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf

168,847 returned so far or 6.6%...

Party break down appears to be
Democrat 87,649
Republican 46.997

...

I know it's early but that's DOUBLe

[KingSweden]

NC early vote update:


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

So in NC Primary turnout between 2008 and 2016, we see Democrats losing 29% and Republicans more than doubling! Obama won NC by < 1%.


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Republican Primary turnout in NC up from 2008 by over 100%!!!



Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Democrat Primary turnout in NC down from 2008 by 29%.


NC looking really good for R's right now which is one of the several must win states for Trump!

god, this just soiled the thread

Remember guys, Trump's turnout operation isn't in a computer, it's in our hearts

[KingSweden]

WBAL Baltimore News
@wbaltv11
Final update per MD State Board of Elections: 125,914 voters checked-in day one of early voting. Entire early voting period in 2012: 107,385

Wow. Shame MD only holds legislative elections during midterms, else this year would probably be a jackpot for Democrats.

Can Dems maximize their map much more in MD?

[KingSweden]

Consider that polling place changes can be affecting NC numbers. I don't know how you'd adjust for it, but you'd expect Dems to be behind

[KingSweden]

I'll bet NV voters prefer voting later in the day because it's so dern hot there.

And Vegas is... not a morning town

[KingSweden]

Ah, thanks for the update! These old numbers are hard to find. So if Dems break even by election day, CO +6 looks plausible, and that's about how polls look. Still, full week to go here.

Do you know when EV ends or is it different by state?

CO is all Mail so EV never really ends