The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Only counting potential candidates for whom there've been at least 20 shares traded (otherwise, the volume is so light that the numbers become silly):

Romney 30.0
Jindal 20.0
Pawlenty 18.9
Huckabee 16.9
Palin 13.4
Gingrich 12.0
Giuliani 10.0
Huntsman 10.0
Crist 9.9

[Mr. Morden]

Latest (again, only counting people for whom we've had at least 20 shares traded):

Romney 24.1
Jindal 17.0
Huckabee 13.0
Palin 11.2
Sanford 11.0
Pawlenty 10.0
Gingrich 9.5
Crist 8.0
Huntsman 8.0
Thune 6.5

[Mr. Morden]

I'm suprised Palin isn't at least 2nd. I don't think she is going to win the nomination, but she is probably more likely than Jindal of Huckabee.

40% of America love Palin. Whether they will still love her in 3 years, I don't know. I like her a lot, but I won't vote for her, because I know, that unless Obama's approval ratings are below 40%, she will lose. I would feel much more comfortable voting for Crist, even though we don't agree on some issues.

Like I said I don't think she will end up winning the nomination, but I still think she is more likely than most potential Republican candidates at this point, many of whom probably won't run at all.

To be honest, I'm not at all convinced that Palin will run either.  I'd say that, for example, Palin is probably less likely to run than Pawlenty.  But Jindal, OTOH, is *really* unlikely to run.  No way should he be as high as 17.0.  (Although, if Jindal did run, I think he'd be more likely to win the nom. than Palin.  Palin seems far more likely to self-destruct during the long primary campaign.)

Oh, and for amusement, here are the 2012 Democratic nomination odds:

Obama 85.1
Clinton 10.0
Biden 8.0

[Mr. Morden]

I'd love to know how Biden was doing at intrade in March 2005 for '08.

Don't know about March, but in July 2005, he was in 3rd place, and at about 10%:

Every so often, I like to look at the Tradesports odds for the 2008 elections.  Used them for my Kerry-o-Meter in 2004, used them in my discontinued Hillary-o-Meter for 2008 (which may be brought back at some point after the midterms).  Not that they're scientific or anything, they're just interesting.

And, now, in order, the top 10 Republicans and Democrats.


1) George Allen (19.5%)
2) John McCain (17.9%)
3) Rudy Guiliani (12.1%)
4) Bill Frist (10.0%)
5) Mitt Romney (8.7%)
6) Jeb Bush (6.6%)
7) Condi Rice (5.5%)
8 ) Chuck Hagel (5.2%)
9) George Pataki (3.2%)
9) Newt Gingrich (3.2%)


Democrats:

1) Hillary Clinton (46.9%)
2) Mark Warner (10.9%)
3) Joe Biden (10.8%)
4) Evan Bayh (7.7%)
5) Al Gore (5.9%)
6) John Edwards (5.5%)
7) Bill Richardson (3.8%)
7) Tom Vilsack (3.8%)
9) John Kerry (3.4%)
10) Jon Corzine (2.2%)

[Mr. Morden]

Total odds certainly 3% or below.

I don't know about that.  I mean, it's a low probability, but I'd probably actually put Obama's chances of being assassinated at greater than 3%.  The POTUS is a pretty big target for assassination.

Keep in mind, of our last 10 presidents, one of them was assassinated, one resigned, and one (LBJ) dropped his reelection bid, when he was still constitutionally eligible to run for another term.  Granted, all of those things were more than 30 years ago, but that doesn't mean that it's never going to happen again.

[Mr. Morden]

Jindal has dropped to third place, and Palin is down to 10.0, which is as low as she's been since mid-November:

Romney 24.1
Huckabee 13.9
Jindal 12.1
Sanford 11.0
Palin 10.0
Pawlenty 10.0

[Mr. Morden]

Romney up, and Palin back up to 2nd place:

Romney 30.0
Palin 14.0
Huckabee 13.9
Jindal 12.1
Sanford 11.0
Gingrich 10.0
Pawlenty 10.0

[Mr. Morden]

Romney always does well on Intrade...

Doesn't help him.

I actually thought he was undervalued for the 2008 nomination during much of 2007.  I thought he was too low, and Giuliani was too high.

[Mr. Morden]

Petraeus "surges" into second place, and Pawlenty's 2010 retirement news lifts him up to a tie for 3rd with Palin:

Romney 27.1
Petraeus 19.8
Palin 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 14.0
Jindal 12.1
Sanford 11.0
Crist 8.0

(again, only counting those with at least 20 shares traded)

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty now up to 2nd place:

Romney 27.1
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Jindal 12.1
Palin 12.0
Sanford 11.0

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford drops out of the top tier.  Gingrich and Thune gain:

Romney 29.9
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Gingrich 13.5
Palin 13.0
Jindal 12.1
Thune 10.0

(again, only counting those with at least 20 shares traded)

[Mr. Morden]

Palin plummets.  Jindal and Gingrich gain (only those with 20 shares traded included):

Romney 29.9
Jindal 16.0
Gingrich 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Thune 10.0
Petraeus 8.9
Crist 8.0
Giuliani 6.9
Cantor 6.8
Palin 6.5

[Mr. Morden]

Romney extends his lead, and there's a huge Palin rally.  Dumb.  Even if you still think Palin's going to run, I would think any sane reading of events should have her odds diminished since last week:

Romney 33.8
Jindal 16.0
Gingrich 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9
Palin 13.9
Thune 10.0

[Mr. Morden]

Um, why is Jindal in second? Didn't he indicate he wasn't running?

No, I don't think so.  I think he's indicated that he's interested in running for reelection, but hasn't ruled out a presidential run in 2012.  Of course, doing both would pretty much be impossible, since the LA gov. race would be in Nov. 2011.  Then again, there's still time to back out of the LA gov. reelection bid.

But you're right that there's no way he should be in second.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney drops.  Palin surges ahead of where she was before her resignation.  People are dumb.  There's no way her resignation actually *improved* her chances of being nominated for prez:

Romney 25.0
Jindal 15.9
Gingrich 15.0
Palin 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9

[Mr. Morden]

Romney drops.  Palin surges ahead of where she was before her resignation.  People are dumb.  There's no way her resignation actually *improved* her chances of being nominated for prez:

Romney 25.0
Jindal 15.9
Gingrich 15.0
Palin 15.0
Pawlenty 15.0
Huckabee 13.9

Yea, of course they are, because if they don't believe what you do, then they are stupid pigs right

Dude, this isn't about agreeing or disagreeing with my political beliefs.  This is about political *analysis*.  And yes, some political analysis is dumb, and I feel no guilt in identifying it as such.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney drops.  Palin surges ahead of where she was before her resignation.  People are dumb.  There's no way her resignation actually *improved* her chances of being nominated for prez:

The polls show that she has become more popular with the Republican Party, not less, since her resignation.

Which poll(s) do you mean?  There's been, what?  One?  Two polls on Palin since her resignation?  Do either of them show any real statistically meaningful trend?

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Yeah, I'm going to go with no chance in hell does this improve her prospects at the nomination.  One can't just look at the short term reaction to this.  Rather you have to imagine how this would play out in an extended primary campaign.  And I think this will end up playing terribly.  I can imagine the Romney attack ads over this playing in my head right now.

Edit:

link

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Yeah, Sarah-mentum.

[Mr. Morden]

Figured I'd do an update as a baseline just in case the "Palin divorce" rumor turns out to be true, and her share price tumbles.....Anyway, Romney expands his lead, and Pawlenty drops a few points:

Romney 33.9
Jindal 15.9
Gingrich 14.4
Palin 14.1
Huckabee 13.9
Pawlenty 12.1

[Mr. Morden]

Figured I'd do an update as a baseline just in case the "Palin divorce" rumor turns out to be true, and her share price tumbles.....Anyway, Romney expands his lead, and Pawlenty drops a few points:

Romney 33.9
Jindal 15.9
Gingrich 14.4
Palin 14.1
Huckabee 13.9
Pawlenty 12.1

I agree divorce or an affair would make her seem finished in a potential 2012 race but that's also a bit absurd seeing as how McCain and Reagan were divorced.  And on the other side Clinton wasn't divorced but...  I don't really understand how it's not inconsistent to nominate McCain but then say "Oh, we can't nominate Palin now that her marriage ended."  Obviously, the rumors could very well turn out to be false.

Having your marriage blow up in the public eye two and a half years before the primary voting is politically a lot different from having it blow up 30 years ago.  Also, being divorced and then remarried is politically different from being divorced and single.

Of course, this is all quite premature as we don't have any word on Palin's marriage from a credible news source.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney and Huckabee drop while Pawlenty moves up to second place:

Romney 29.0
Pawlenty 18.0
Palin 17.1
Gingrich 15.0
Jindal 15.0
Thune 12.6
Huckabee 10.0
Crist 7.7
Giuliani 6.9

[Mr. Morden]

Jeb Bush gains, and Huckabee drops to an all-time low:

Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 18.9
Palin 17.0
Jindal 15.0
Gingrich 13.5
Thune 12.9
Huckabee 9.0
Jeb Bush 7.0

[Mr. Morden]

Palin gains, Jindal drops.....Palin and Pawlenty breaking away from the second tier a bit.....moving a bit closer to Romney:

Romney 28.0
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 17.0
Thune 12.5
Jindal 12.0
Huckabee 11.9
Gingrich 11.0

Palin is absurdly overvalued, IMHO.

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty surges into a close 2nd place; Jindal drops:

Romney 27.0
Pawlenty 24.9
Palin 17.6
Gingrich 13.0
Thune 12.5
Huckabee 12.0
Petraeus 9.0
Jindal 8.0

[Mr. Morden]

Can anyone explain what those numbers actually mean and how one bets on intrade?

Someone who's actually traded in the market can probably explain this better than I can.  But in brief, each share is a contract between two people.  If a share of "Romney to win the 2012 GOP presidential nomination" is traded at 27.0, it means that one person who's betting on Romney to win puts up $2.70.  That person is agreeing to a contract with another person, who puts up $7.30.  In three years, if Romney wins the nomination, the first guy gets all $10, while the second guy gets nothing.  Whereas if Romney *doesn't* win the nomination, then the second guy gets all $10, while the first guy gets nothing.

The numbers I've been posting are the price of the latest transaction on each candidate to win the nomination.  Latest numbers are:

Romney 25.2
Palin 23.0
Pawlenty 20.0
Huckabee 14.5
Thune 11.1
Gingrich 10.5
Jindal 7.6

(those are just the top 7 names at the moment.....there are a total of 28 names listed, including such uber-longshots as Fred Thompson and Gary Johnson)

So that means the last transaction on Romney was a share traded at $2.52, last transaction on Palin was at $2.30, etc.  If the market had more volume, and if there wasn't also the fact that these shares won't pay out for another three years, then these would translate into probabilities of the person in question winning the nomination, at least the probability as the market sees it.  But you'll notice that even these top seven add up to more than 100%.  There isn't enough volume yet.  Still, I think you can read the numbers as being correlated with how the market views their probability of winning.  Romney has been in the #1 slot for more than six months, so I think it's fair to say that the market thinks he's the frontrunner.

[Mr. Morden]

Intratrade is such a silly market.  It swings based on any piece of news.  Pawlenty has only gained because he is creating noise from himself by putting together a campaign team and rumbles about him going to Iowa.  Its not even a gamble.  For example, if you pick Jindal today your going to make fake money because a news story like, 'Jindal May Consider Probably Maybe Running in 2012' will increase his chances by 5-7 points.

I think you have something of a point, but you overstate it somewhat.  Yes, Intrade tends to overreact to the latest news.  But it should be reacting to the news, just not as sharply as it does.  For all of us who are not in any of the potential candidates' inner circles, all we have to go on is the news.

Compared to 3-4 months ago, it now looks like Pawlenty is much more firmly committed to running in 2012, and he's managed to attract some top talent to his team.  So he *should* be on the rise in Intrade.  The probability of him winning the nomination has gone up.  Similarly, the reason why Jindal has dropped is because it increasingly looks like he's not going to run in 2012.  If a news story came out today that said that he was thinking about running after all, then his Intrade price *should* go up, provided that we actually think the story is credible, and that he's not just blowing smoke.  In 2006, when Obama told Russert that he was now thinking about running for prez, his stock shot up on Intrade.  As it should have.  Before that day, it looked like an Obama 2008 candidacy was very unlikely.  Now, with that one sentence, he was opening the door somewhat.

I could go on, but I think you get my drift.  To a large extent, the betting on Intrade is an exercise in trying to read the minds of the people who may or may not run for president.  To the extent that a news story can give us insight into that, it drives the prices.  Not sure why that's a problem.