Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Really amazing they’d waste armor like this for essentially a border raid over supporting the Donbas push
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1788940862094741837?s=12

It's stretching the Ukrainian forces thinner like I said previously.

Tatarigami_UA - who runs the Frontelligence Substack site:

Overnight, Russian infrantry, backed by armored vehicles, entered Kharkiv oblast from Belgorod area, using small tactical units. Frontelligence Insight had previously cautioned about this scenario. Here's what we know about it:

The capture of border villages like Strilecha, Krasne, Pylne, and Borysivka isn't unexpected. It's an anticipated maeuver to divert Ukrainian resources from the main Russian offensive in Donbas. Considering manpower shortages, Ukraine will be forced to redeploy some personnel.

...

Russians anticipate a significant social backlash, inducing panic and demands for resolution. This pressure aims to compel the redeployment  of units from critical areas of Russian advances in Donbas. Meanwhile, Russian forces deploy infantry units incapable of deep strikes.

The situation is expected to evolve, with Russian forces deploying more units to penetrate additional border areas or to reinforce initial successes. With our estimate of their force equivalent to two Russian corps, they can sustain this operation.

Thus far, the Russian forces have not breached the main Ukrainian defense. Given the time required for Ukrainian units to deploy to the area, it is premature to assess the overall success or failure of this incursion. We will continue to provide updates.

Rob Lee agrees, says it's designed to take units away from defending Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.

If I'm Russian leadership considering Ukrainian manpower shortages, just play a game of 15-on-13 rugby along the frontline, find where they don't have men or their presence is light and attack the gainline on that day.

Yeah I know this is there thinking but it could just as easily bite them in the ass as it’s wasting equipment on fortified areas when they are facing stock depletion issues by next year

One of his posts I did not copy is these areas are not fortified because the border is a gray zone. The fortifications are further inland.

If they want to actually draw Ukrainian forces away they have to push towards the fortified areas that hold strategic importance the areas they raised today aren’t going to get that desired effect

[Woody]

DeepstateUA: "The enemy's offensive continues near Gatyshche, Lukyantsi and Hlyboke."

The gray zone expands

https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/50.2267/36.8262

[Hnv1]

I feel like the AFU high command decided they are willing to sacrifice some swath of land in Kharkov to maintain the front in Donetsk. Which is reasonable considering the Russians can't take Kharkov city, and the Donetsk urban sprawl is the best blockage to stop a Russian offensive

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1789249276314276291?s=46
Wow the UK coming out of the blue with this

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1789106880733712696

[Woody]

I feel like the AFU high command decided they are willing to sacrifice some swath of land in Kharkov to maintain the front in Donetsk. Which is reasonable considering the Russians can't take Kharkov city, and the Donetsk urban sprawl is the best blockage to stop a Russian offensive

The consensus is that Russia wants to advance far enough that Kharkov City is within artillery range, and at the same time maintain a buffer zone.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1789125542819549394

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1789267539282850280
😬 🔥