2018 New Brunswick election

[the506]

The language issue has completely died down in the last 20 years. McKenna and Lord both took a pragmatic approach to the issue that placated both sides. There's still the odd agitator here and there, but for the most part nobody's looking to reopen that debate.

I can't put a handle on this one this far out. Higgs definitely has the policy chops - he was very much a straight shooter as finance minister and didn't care who he pissed off. If elections were only fought on that, he'd win in a landslide. But he hasn't come across as an effective campaigner, even during the PC leadership race. Gallant is the exact opposite. He had (still has) no discernible policy beyond "do what it takes to get elected".

The Liberals' biggest scandal to date has been the property tax disaster. The province calculates it on behalf of municipalities in NB, and they've switched to an automated GIS-based system that assumed renovations took place that never did, which meant assessments for some home owners almost doubled. The province has spent millions of dollars the last few months in rebates.

The thing that should scare the Liberals is how thin their vote is in anglo ridings, and their plans to keep it are becoming more and more transparent. A recent cabinet shuffle promoted Andrew Harvey (who against all odds won his rural anglo seat by <2%); and Gallant named himself regional minister for the Saint John/Fundy coast area, where 2 of their MLAs won by less than 2% (plus a 3rd they later lost in a byelection). It's also the same reason the Liberals gave Stephen Horsman, their only Fredericton MLA, as many cushy cabinet positions as they could.

As for the smaller parties....David Coon is a shoe-in to get re-elected (I live in his riding). Jennifer McKenzie hasn't announced where she's running yet, but I can't really see her winning anywhere she'd be seen as an outsider.

Kris Austin's seat could go either way. He would have won easily last time if the riding was just the Minto/Chipman area, but the parts of Fredericton attached to his riding didn't give him the time of day. But they are some of the most working-class neighbourhoods of the city, so I can see him taking it with an effective enough campaign. Just not sure if he has it in him.

[the506]

He's very much a "fiscal responsibility" guy, which put him in hot water with the public sector unions as finance minister. He wanted to do a straight austerity budget in 2011 but Alward talked him out of it.

Here's a good writeup on him and his beliefs from the leadership race:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/blaine-hills-pc-leadership-1.3808866

[the506]

That may be the PCs' best chance of winning. The Liberals are still up decently in the polls, but a lot of it seems to be Clinton-style running up the score in their safe Francophone seats.

They have very few safe seats (maybe 1-2) in anglophone regions and won most of them in 2014 by slim margins. The slightest mistake will sink them.

[the506]

He hasn't ruled it out. My guess is if he runs anywhere, it's Fredericton North. It's a suburban riding in his hometown that's perfect for his brand of politics.

[the506]

MQO poll a year out: 41-36-12-7.

http://mqoresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Atlantic-Matters-Report-NB-Q4-2017.pdf

[the506]

This can't be....can it?

http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/media_advisories/media_advisory.2017.10.1361.html

[the506]

I doubt it. Looking back, Gallant getting married last weekend and inexplicably releasing a TV attack ad on Higgs should have been a sign of something.

(How'd that be for a honeymoon? A bus trip to Bathurst.)

[the506]

But hey, if this does happen, I can see a couple NDP seats coming out of this if they play their cards right. They probably won't.

[the506]

No early election. Gallant trolled us all.

https://t.co/LbiKHs8HGp

[the506]

Jennifer McKenzie is running in Saint John Harbour, which is Elizabeth Weir's old seat and where the Liberal incumbent is retiring.

With Fredericton South belonging to the Greens, this is the closest thing to an NDP-friendly seat in the province. It includes both one of those gentrifying hipster districts and the poorest neighbourhood in NB.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/ndp-leader-running-saint-john-harbour-1.4408848

[the506]

Mainstreet: 41-40-10-9.

https://www.scribd.com/document/369752122/Mainstreet-NB-Jan23a2018

Like I said above, these numbers could very well translate to a PC majority since Liberal support is so concentrated.

[the506]

The PCs' only Francophone MLA (and longtime Lord and Alward cabinet minister), Mado Dubé, is stepping down.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/progressive-conservative-mla-madeleine-dub%C3%A9-1.4534868

It's looking more and more like the election will be fought along language lines. The PCs have no real foothold in francophone areas anymore (plus Higgs' French is barely passable), while the Liberals' only real safe anglophone MLAs are Rick Doucet, Chris Collins and maybe Cathy Rogers.

The Liberals best path to victory is to flip urban seats in Saint John and Fredericton, and with where they've been spreading around the goodies lately, they're trying.

[the506]

Anglophone.

But bilingual areas like Moncton and Bathurst tend to go Liberal, if only because French speakers have tended to vote more solidly Liberal lately than English speakers do Conservative. So that evens it out a bit.

[the506]

I'd bet on this being actual PC momentum, considering a couple reasons:

* The Liberals have stepped up their attacks on Blaine Higgs, including a new online ad buy that just started this week. They must have polling showing something is up.
* The PCs have recently introduced a slate of quality candidates to run in swing seats; including former MP Greg Thompson and Moira Kelly (the wife of ex-Graham cabinet minster Mike Murphy). Keith Ashfield was even slated to run before his tragic death last month. The Liberals only need to lose a handful of seats to lose power.

[the506]

Dominic Cardy, after denying for months he'd be running as a PC candidate, was kind of forced into running in Fredericton West-Hanwell - the same seat he contested for the NDP 4 years ago. The current MLA Brian Macdonald abruptly quit a few weeks back. Rumour is he'll be trying for the CPC nomination in 2019.

http://country94.ca/news/437706121/dominic-cardy-wants-be-pc-candidate-fredericton-west-hanwell

While I'm at it, here's some other nomination news and notes from the past few weeks that I didn't think merited their own posts, but are probably worth mentioning anyway.

Three former MPs are looking for provincial seats:
* Greg Thompson is the PC candidate in St. Croix. He goes up against Liberal John Ames, who barely won by 2% in 2014. Should be a Tory pickup in September.
* Jean-Claude d'Amours is running for the Liberals in Madawaska-Edmundston Centre. This was the riding of the last Lord-era francophone MLA (Mado Dubé), and with her not running again, this should be the best chance for a Liberal pickup in the province.
* Chretien-era Liberal MP Guy Arsenault has won the nomination in Campbellton-Dalhousie, defeating the current mayors of both Campbellton and Dalhousie. The winner replaces Donald Arseneault (no relation), who was not running again and ended up being kicked out of Liberal caucus over conflict of interest rules for starting his new lobbying job too soon.

Other news in no particular order:
* Another ex-MP, Keith Ashfield, won the Oromocto-Lincoln PC nomination until his sudden passing in April. The party held another nomination meeting just last night, which was won by Fredericton businesswoman Mary Wilson.
* Speaker Chris Collins got Me Too'd and was kicked out of the Liberal caucus. He's suing Gallant for libel and may run as an independent in Moncton Centre.
* Lord-era cabinet minister Jeannot Volpé is getting back into politics, running for the PC nomination in Madawaska-Les-Lacs. He had some choice words for Alward (and Higgs!) during his administration, so it ill be interesting to see if he can keep his mouth shut.
* Moira Kelly Murphy, the wife of Graham cabinet minister Mike Murphy, is running for the PCs in Moncton South - against finance minister Cathy Rogers.
* Saint John Harbour is shaping up to be the most interesting race in the province. NDP leader Jennifer McKenzie, city councillor Gerry Lowe for the Liberals, and well-known community activist Barry Ogden for the PCs.

[the506]

In terms of momentum and media coverage the NDP might as well be the 5th party. The People's Alliance has even passed them.

[the506]

In terms of momentum and media coverage the NDP might as well be the 5th party. The People's Alliance has even passed them.

Do you think People's Alliance will win a seat this time?

Kris Austin's probably got a 60-70% chance. If everything goes right a la COR 1991 there may be even some coattails in some of the other rural seats around Fredericton, which could only be good news for the Liberals.

[the506]

Indeed; and if the recent released polls actually probed for the PANB, they would find that the NDP was polling in fifth too. Must frustrate you when these Toronto firms swoop in and can't poll the province properly, eh?

I'm surprised they're even polling, I don't think any of the big national firms did in 2014. Nobody west of NB cares enough to understand the landscape here.

"10% of voters would vote for a different party?" Huh I wonder why that would be

Obviously, they're all Moncton Centre voters for Chris Collins.

[the506]

Is there any chance of the NBNDP "pulling a Green" and focussing upon the leader's seat instead?  After all, Elizabeth Weir endured for years (and with respect) as the party's sole legislative representative...

It might be all they have. Though she's up against formidable Liberal and PC candidates.

[the506]

Hey, we're used to being ignored by the rest of the country.

Doesn't help that the Quebec and Toronto municipal races are going on at the same time. If NB wanted any national attention at all for their elections, they couldn't pick a worse time.

Grenier's projector has the People's Alliance at 7%

Doesn't surprise me. Most of their candidates here in the Fredericton area have very active campaigns already.

[the506]

Mayor of Caraquet running for the PCs. Still not sure how well they'll do among Acadians, but they're sure trying.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-progessive-conservative-acadian-support-1.4792502

EDIT: on the other hand, Radio-Canada says they will not be able to do a debate in French because Blaine Higgs still isn't comfortable speaking it: https://twitter.com/roycomeau/status/1031522874958536704

[the506]

Writ drops today.

CRA: 50-30-7-7-6.
https://cra.ca/liberals-enjoy-sizeable-lead-at-the-start-of-nb-election/

For whatever reason, CRA always seems to overstate Liberal support compared to other pollsters.

[the506]

Ok what is this "people's alliance"? That's the vaguest name I've ever seen

Vaguer than Confederation of Regions?

Oddly enough, the same kind of party minus the *overt* anti-Frenchness.

[the506]

Over the next few days I’m going to do some profiles of each of the 49 ridings. Let’s begin, shall we?

Saint John / Fundy Coast

St. Croix
Formerly known as Charlotte-Campobello and Western Charlotte, this riding in the far southwest corner of the province contains the border town of St. Stephen, the resort town of St. Andrews and the village of McAdam. It’s voted with the government every time since it was created in its current form in 1995, with the exception of 2006 when PC Tony Huntjens barely held on.

The current MLA is tourism minister John Ames, who won a close race by less than 2% in 2014. He’s in big trouble this time, as the Tories have recruited longtime federal MP Greg Thompson, who has been uber-popular in that part of the province for years. My guess? If there’s only one PC pickup in the entire province, this will be it. A strong People’s Alliance campaign may be a spoiler, but not likely.
Likely PC

Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
This sprawling riding follows the Fundy coastline from St. Andrews to Saint John. It includes the towns of St. George and Blacks Harbour, Grand Manan and Deer Island, as well as exurban Saint John neighbourhoods like Lorneville and Martinon. The economy, as you might expect, is heavily based on fisheries and aquaculture. Connors Brothers, one of the largest sardine processors in the world, is based in Blacks Harbour. The Point Lepreau nuclear plant is also located in the riding. Voting patterns are similar to equivalent fishing areas in NS, PEI or NL, which means it tends to vote Liberal more often than the rest of rural English New Brunswick – in fact, factoring in boundary changes, the St. George area has been represented continuously by a Liberal since 1978.

Liberal MLA and energy minister Rick Doucet has been in the legislature since 1999, and won in a landslide over the late “maverick” PC MLA Doc Parrott in 2014, in a battle of incumbents forced by riding boundary changes. Doucet’s PC challenger this time is Andrea Anderson-Mason, who’s been regarded as a strong campaigner, but I can’t see her overcoming Doucet’s personal popularity.
Likely Liberal

Saint John-Lancaster
The very working class west side of Saint John, formerly known as Lancaster back in the day, is mostly found within this riding. It includes employers like the Irving pulp mill and Moosehead Breweries. In keeping with the neighbourhood’s culture, most of its MLAs over the years have been known for their strong personalities – McKenna-era cabinet minister Jane Barry, PC Norm McFarlane (who later became mayor), Liberal Abel LeBlanc (best known for challenging a Tory opponent to a fight on the floor of the legislature).

The MLA since 2010 has been PC Dorothy Shephard, who isn’t letting a little thing like breast cancer keep her from running again.  She’s up against B&B owner Kathleen Riley-Karmanos for the Liberals and perennial local NDP candidate Tony Mowery.
Leaning PC

Saint John Harbour
Running in this riding seemed like a good idea at the time for new NDP leader Jennifer McKenzie. Saint John Harbour is the riding covering the city centre, which is hipster-fying at a huge rate, not to mention two of the province’s poorest neighbourhoods in the north and south ends. It was the personal fiefdom of former NDP leader Elizabeth Weir for 14 years. The Liberal incumbent Ed Doherty isn’t even running again. In any other province this would be a slam dunk for the NDP.

But the NDP in this province still hasn’t recovered from the loss of the traditional left-wing voters caused by Dominic Cardy’s shift to the centre, and the subsequent loss of said centre voters caused by Cardy’s forcing out last year.  The Liberals and Tories have both nominated star candidates – city councillor Gerry Lowe and community activist Barry Ogden respectively. Polls have shown the NDP without any sort of boost in Saint John compared to the rest of the province. It’s become an uphill battle for McKenzie, and with basically zero prospects elsewhere, this is it for the orange team. David Coon won Fredericton South for the Greens under similar circumstances 4 years ago, maybe history will repeat itself? I have my doubts.
Liberal-PC-NDP tossup

Portland-Simonds
This is mostly the old money part of Saint John, consisting of the areas around Rockwood Park and Milledgeville, as well as smaller, poorer, immigrant-heavy sections of the North End (formerly called Portland in the 19th century) and East Side (Simonds) that trended Liberal 4 years ago but got outvoted. PC MLA Trevor Holder has been in the legislature since 1999, including a 15-point victory in 2014. I can’t see him losing in this political climate, even with city councillor John MacKenzie carrying the Liberal banner.
Likely PC

Saint John East
This middle-to-lower class suburban riding covers most of the city’s east side (as the name suggests), including the Irving Oil refinery. 4 years ago, Liberal Gary Keating survived a protracted recount battle and won by 9 votes, only to quit after 2 weeks because he couldn’t handle the workload. His PC opponent Glen Savoie easily won the by-election and is re-offering this year.  The Liberal campaign looks fairly weak this time.
Likely PC

Rothesay
By far the richest town in the province, Rothesay is home to the Irving family and the province’s only private boarding school. It’s that kind of place. The PC MLA is Ted Flemming, grandson of 1950s premier Hugh John Flemming, and he will undoubtedly have a senior cabinet position should the Tories win the election. He’s in a rematch against Rothesay High School principal Stephanie Tomilson for the Liberals, who he defeated by 18 points in 2014.
Safe PC

Quispamsis
Quispamsis is Rothesay’s more middle-class neighbour. It’s also Blaine Higgs’ seat. Enough said. His Liberal opponent is Saint John Sea Dogs play-by-play voice Aaron Kennedy.
Safe PC

Hampton
The Hampton riding includes both the town of the same name and some exurban Saint John suburbs reaching all the way down to the coast around Loch Lomond and Red Head. 4 years ago, longtime PC MLA Bev Harrison crossed the floor to run for the NDP, only to lose to new PC candidate Gary Crossman. Crossman's main opponent this year is Liberal Carley Parish, a young lawyer. The NDP candidate this time is Layton – Layton Peck that is, coach of the Hampton High School football team. Green candidate John Sabine had a decent showing 4 years ago and is running again this time.
Likely PC

Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
This riding is based around the town of Sussex, the dairy capital of Atlantic Canada. It also includes an area around the village of St. Martins on the shore, where tourism is the main draw (seriously, if you’re ever in NB, go to the caves – they’re breathtaking). PC Bruce Northrup, who served several cabinet positions in the Alward government, has represented the riding since 2006. The Liberal candidate is (who else) a cheese maker named Ian Smyth.

The People’s Alliance had a strong 3rd-place showing with former Liberal MLA Leroy Armstrong in 2014. He’s not running this time, but they could still play spoiler. Also running as an independent: David Raymond Amos, the province’s own resident conspiracy theorist who’s always good for comic relief at debates.
Likely PC

Kings Centre
Kings Centre is a weirdly drawn riding – in order to drive it from end to end, you need to take a ferry. It includes the Saint John suburb of Grand Bay-Westfield on one side, the farming village of Norton on the other and the scenic Kingston Peninsula in the middle.

The incumbent MLA is Bill Oliver, a former staffer to Blaine Higgs who is seeking his second term in the legislature for the PCs. (Fun fact: as of this writing, his Wikipedia article includes the following: “this year, the year of 2018, Oliver turned 6 years old. It was a very fun birthday with balloon animals, a bounce house, and a magic show. He was a very happy boy that day. Yes he was.”) The Liberal candidate is Bill Merrifield, active in the Saint John recreation community and whose daughter Shannon was the Liberal candidate in 2014. It’s Oliver’s race to lose given the demographics of this riding, but this is the kind of rural anglo Bible Belt seat without a strong incumbent where a good People’s Alliance campaign may upset the apple cart.
Likely PC

[the506]

How bout some more:

Moncton / Southeast New Brunswick

Albert
This mostly rural riding includes most of Albert County, parts of the Moncton suburb of Riverview and the village of Salisbury. Tourism and fisheries are among the big economic draws, with Fundy National Park and the Hopewell Rocks in the riding. It is very small-c conservative, even voting for COR in 1991. The only times the Liberals won Albert since 1948 were the sweep of 1987 and the near-sweep of 1995. From 1999 to 2014, Albert was represented by the popular Wayne Steeves.

After Steeves decided not to run again 4 years ago, Brian Kierstead became the MLA for the riding, however Kierstead inexplicably lost his nomination meeting in April. Carrying the Tory banner this time will be Mike Holland, who owns an outdoor gear business called The Resourceful Redneck and once got a deal on Dragon’s Den.

Running against Holland is Liberal Catherine Black (director of the local NB Community College campus), farmer Miranda van Geest for the Greens, school bus driver Betty Weir for the NDP and Sharon Buchanan for the People’s Alliance.
Safe PC

Riverview
This riding includes most of the town of Riverview, a middle-class suburban community across the river from downtown Moncton. It’s the most anglophone part of the area, going so far as to vote COR in 1991. Like Albert, besides the Tories’ 1987-95 years in the wilderness, the riding has voted for them in every other election since it was created in 1974. At one point it was represented by Brenda Robertson, the first female MLA in New Brunswick.

Bruce Fitch has been the MLA since 2003, and he doesn’t seem to be in much trouble this time either. His biggest opponent is Brent Mazerolle, a former newspaper reporter running for the Liberals. Also running is perennial Green candidate Stephanie Coburn, Madison Duffy for the NDP and Heather Collins for the People’s Alliance.
Safe PC

Moncton Southwest
Can I just say Moncton riding names are completely screwed up? The bulk of the population in Moncton Southwest actually lives due north of Moncton South, which should really be called Moncton Centre because it includes downtown, while the actual Moncton Centre includes the old north end….and on and on and on.

Anyway, Moncton “Southwest” includes some baby-boom-era suburbia along the Mountain Road corridor to the north of downtown, as well as a rural/exurban area to the west around Boundary Creek and Berry Mills. The riding as we know it was created in 2014, from portions of the old Moncton North (a fairly bilingual swing seat that has tilted slightly Liberal over the years), and two very Conservative rural ridings.

The MLA is PC Sherry Wilson, who formerly represented Petitcodiac. She held on by 4% in 2014 by racking up big margins in the rural parts of the riding while the urban parts voted Liberal. She’s being challenged this time by Liberal Suzy Campos, a well-known community activist. The strongest third-party campaign looks to be the Greens’ Sarah Colwell. Add in the NDP’s Hailey Duffy and all 4 confirmed candidates so far are women.
PC-Liberal tossup

Moncton South
This riding includes downtown Moncton and most of the inner city, as well as a more suburban neighbourhood to the west around Jones Lake and Centennial Park. It’s voted for both major parties over the years. 4 years ago, now-finance minister Cathy Rogers beat Alward cabinet minister Sue Stultz by a good margin.

This time around, it should again be one of the most closely watched ridings in the province on election night. Rogers is going up against Tory candidate Moira Kelly Murphy, a well-known lawyer in the area who the PCs regard as a star candidate – and oh, she just happens to be the wife of Graham-era Liberal cabinet minister Mike Murphy. I think whoever wins the province wins here. The NDP, Green and People’s Alliance candidates are all women too.
PC-Liberal tossup

Moncton Centre
Here’s another race that will be very closely watched. The riding includes most of Moncton’s old north end, the suburban neighbourhood of Sunny Brae and the Elmwood Drive corridor. Not exactly “centre”, but I digress.

The story of this riding centres on MLA Chris Collins. As a Liberal candidate, he almost knocked off premier Bernard Lord when he first ran in 2003, won the by-election after Lord left the legislature, and later became speaker. (He’s also often mistaken for the congressman on Twitter, but that’s a story for another day.) Then at the height of the Me Too movement, the Liberals kicked him out of caucus over unspecified harassment allegations. An investigation ruled them to be founded “in part”, but the details have never been made public. He’s running as an independent to try to clear his name.

How well is he doing? My sources in Moncton say he’s winning the sign war, but that might not count for anything. His supporters contend Brian Gallant forced him out in favour of his own pick, councillor Rob McKee. The Tory candidate is Claudette Boudreau-Turner, who runs several successful local businesses, and she could very well win on the vote split. It will be a tough 3-way race. But if his electoral history is any indication, you should never count out Chris Collins.
Liberal-PC-indy tossup

Moncton Northwest
This suburban and exurban riding is found, oddly enough, in the northwest corner of the city. It is mostly anglophone and includes the tourist traps around Magnetic Hill, as well as a small rural component to the northwest.

4 years ago, Tory candidate and former local radio personality Brian Steeves won a tight battle by 3% over councillor Brian Hicks. This year, his Liberal opponent is Courtney Pringle-Carver, a VP for Atlantic Lottery. The People’s Alliance candidate is Myrna Geldart, who once ran for…the NDP?

I’d tend to give this one to Steeves just based on the demographics of the riding, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t hold on.
Leaning PC

Moncton East
This bilingual riding consists of the neighbourhoods of Lewisville and Harrisville, as well as exurban communities like Irishtown and Lakeville. It was Bernard Lord’s riding when he was premier, but outside of that era has mostly voted Liberal.

Liberal Monique LeBlanc is seeking her second term in the legislature. She’s up against Marty Kingston for the Tories, the Moncton Wildcats play-by-play announcer. It’s another close race on paper that will probably go the same way it always does.
Leaning Liberal

Dieppe
The city of Dieppe is the most Acadian and francophone section of greater Moncton. The Dieppe riding includes most of the older parts of town.

Liberal Roger Melanson was first elected in 2010, was re-elected in a landslide in 2014 and has served several senior cabinet positions under Gallant. His PC opponent is Pierre Brine, a real estate agent. The NDP is running lawyer and former daycare owner Joyce Richardson, and the Greens still don’t have a candidate.
Safe Liberal

Shediac Bay-Dieppe
The riding of Shediac Bay-Dieppe has two components: the part fishing village, part exurban areas to the immediate north and west of Shediac, and the newer suburban neighbourhoods on the east side of Dieppe. Hence the name.

The Liberal candidate is Brian Gallant. That’s all you need to know.
Safe Liberal

Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap Pelé
The town of Shediac is known as the lobster capital of the world. Most of its residents are Acadian but are known to speak in a French-English mix called Chiac. The riding continues east from Shediac along the coast to the municipalities of Beaubassin-Est and Cap-Pelé. It has voted solidly Liberal ever since it was created in 1974.

The outgoing MLA, Victor Boudreau, has held senior cabinet positions in both the Graham and Gallant governments; most recently as health minister. He has come under fire in recent years for a major conflict of interest: a new campground in which he had a financial stake may have contributed to water quality problems at the popular Parlee Beach – and the fact that his department was responsible for conducting the water tests may have led to a cover up of the worst results.

With all that in the background, Boudreau decided not to run this year.  Now carrying the Liberal banner is Shediac mayor Jacques LeBlanc, who should easily hold it.
Safe Liberal

Memramcook-Tantramar
In the southeast corner of the province lies this riding, which comes across one of those seats that’s left over after all the others in the area are drawn. The town of Sackville (home of Mount Allison University), and the anglo rural area to the east, is lumped in with the very Acadian town of Memramcook, home to the federal LeBlanc family dynasty of Romeo and Dominic.

The Green party is targeting this riding as a possible second seat, and if it was still just the Sackville area I might have given them a chance. Memramcook was split away from Dieppe and added to this riding in 2014, which caused Liberal incumbent Bernard LeBlanc (no relation) to run against Tantramar PC incumbent Mike Olscamp. A look at the poll map reveals some sharp divides: Green around the Mount A campus, a narrow PC win over the Liberals in the rest of Sackville and the Port Elgin area, while Memramcook voted 70+% Liberal. It added up to a fairly comfortable win for LeBlanc.

LeBlanc is running again for his 4th term in the legislature, this time against retired military policeman Etienne Gaudet for the PCs. Green candidate Meghan Mitton and NDPer Helene Boudreau are both returning from 2014. Having a francophone PC candidate may eat into the margin in Memramcook this time, but I still expect another geographically polarized result.
PC-Liberal tossup

Kent South
Kent County, which is mostly francophone, is divided fairly neatly into two ridings. Kent South is centered on the towns of Bouctouche and Saint-Antoine.

4 years ago, Liberal Benoit Bourque knocked off Lord-era PC MLA Claude Williams. He became health minister last year. The fact PC candidate Ricky Gautreau doesn’t even have a bio on the party website probably explains their chances of taking this riding back.
Safe Liberal

Kent North
Kent North includes the Acadian towns of Richibucto, St-Louis-de-Kent and Rogersville, an Anglophone enclave around Rexton, the province’s largest first nation at Elsipogtog, and Kouchibouguac National Park.

Politically it’s been the fiefdom of the Graham family. Alan Graham served continuously from 1967 to 1999 and served several senior cabinet positions under Frank McKenna. Shawn Graham took over from there and of course was premier from 2006-10. He left politics shortly after his government was defeated. Bertrand LeBlanc, who was first elected for Rogersville-Kouchibouguac in 2010 and moved to Kent North in 2014 when that riding was eliminated, is not running again. His assistant, Emery Comeau, is carrying the Liberal banner this time.

4 years ago this area was the height of the fracking controversy that dominated the election campaign. The Green candidate actually finished 2nd, and when I was up there over Labour Day weekend their candidate Kevin Arseneau easily had the 2nd most signs again this time. (He was pictured wearing a Country Liberty hoodie, a clothing label based in Rexton – nice touch.) But this riding is still the Liberals’ to lose.
Safe Liberal