2018 New Brunswick election

[mileslunn]

In terms of federal ridings in NB, I think it sort of breaks down like this:

Tobique-Mactaquac, Fundy-Royal, and New Brunswick Southwest: Those are traditionally safe Tory ridings so as long as they don't screw up badly should regain those, although it's possible Liberals might hold them like Andy Savoy did in 2004 if the Liberal incumbent is personally popular.

Miramichi-Grand Lake, Fredericton, and Saint John-Rothesay: Those are probably toss ups as the moment so too early to say which way they will go.

Madawaska-Restigouche: with how badly Tories have done amongst NB Francophones should stay Liberal unless a blue wave sweeps Quebec in which you might get some spillover.

Moncton-Riverview-Diepe: safe liberal, only winneable if there a strong splits on the left.

Beausjour and Acadie-Bahturst: Easy liberal win but NDP could pick up latter if they get the right candidate.

[DC Al Fine]

I have a hard time seeing the Tories only winning the three safest seats on a 44-37 split... Especially if the language divide is similar to what it is provincially.

[mileslunn]

That was more just in general as numbers will likely shift between now and next federal election. If 44-37 is correct it would probably net 6 or 7 seats for the Conservatives.

[DC Al Fine]

MQO is out with a poll that for the first time shows the PCs in the lead.  Whether this a trend or a rogue poll we will have to see since if PCs win this would be the third one term government in a row.  Mainstreet research also shows it close by Liberals still slightly ahead but due to how busy they are on the Ontario front they haven't released the full details.  Also this poll shows the federal Tories ahead in New Brunswick too.

Provincial

PC 43%
Liberal 35%
Green 11%
NDP 7%

44% still undecided so obviously a strong potential for the numbers to shift significantly between now and September 24th.

Federal

Conservatives 44%
Liberals 37%
Greens 10%
NDP 7%

Considering how federal and provincial numbers are almost identical I wonder if there is some confusion as this rarely happens, the question is which is causing it.

There's an equivalent poll out for Nova Scotia that has substantially different federal and provincial numbers, so I'd guess it's not confusion.

[the506]

Dominic Cardy, after denying for months he'd be running as a PC candidate, was kind of forced into running in Fredericton West-Hanwell - the same seat he contested for the NDP 4 years ago. The current MLA Brian Macdonald abruptly quit a few weeks back. Rumour is he'll be trying for the CPC nomination in 2019.

http://country94.ca/news/437706121/dominic-cardy-wants-be-pc-candidate-fredericton-west-hanwell

While I'm at it, here's some other nomination news and notes from the past few weeks that I didn't think merited their own posts, but are probably worth mentioning anyway.

Three former MPs are looking for provincial seats:
* Greg Thompson is the PC candidate in St. Croix. He goes up against Liberal John Ames, who barely won by 2% in 2014. Should be a Tory pickup in September.
* Jean-Claude d'Amours is running for the Liberals in Madawaska-Edmundston Centre. This was the riding of the last Lord-era francophone MLA (Mado Dubé), and with her not running again, this should be the best chance for a Liberal pickup in the province.
* Chretien-era Liberal MP Guy Arsenault has won the nomination in Campbellton-Dalhousie, defeating the current mayors of both Campbellton and Dalhousie. The winner replaces Donald Arseneault (no relation), who was not running again and ended up being kicked out of Liberal caucus over conflict of interest rules for starting his new lobbying job too soon.

Other news in no particular order:
* Another ex-MP, Keith Ashfield, won the Oromocto-Lincoln PC nomination until his sudden passing in April. The party held another nomination meeting just last night, which was won by Fredericton businesswoman Mary Wilson.
* Speaker Chris Collins got Me Too'd and was kicked out of the Liberal caucus. He's suing Gallant for libel and may run as an independent in Moncton Centre.
* Lord-era cabinet minister Jeannot Volpé is getting back into politics, running for the PC nomination in Madawaska-Les-Lacs. He had some choice words for Alward (and Higgs!) during his administration, so it ill be interesting to see if he can keep his mouth shut.
* Moira Kelly Murphy, the wife of Graham cabinet minister Mike Murphy, is running for the PCs in Moncton South - against finance minister Cathy Rogers.
* Saint John Harbour is shaping up to be the most interesting race in the province. NDP leader Jennifer McKenzie, city councillor Gerry Lowe for the Liberals, and well-known community activist Barry Ogden for the PCs.

[mileslunn]

Dominic Cardy, after denying for months he'd be running as a PC candidate, was kind of forced into running in Fredericton West-Hanwell - the same seat he contested for the NDP 4 years ago. The current MLA Brian Macdonald abruptly quit a few weeks back. Rumour is he'll be trying for the CPC nomination in 2019.

http://country94.ca/news/437706121/dominic-cardy-wants-be-pc-candidate-fredericton-west-hanwell

Not surprised, he endorsed Maxime Bernier for Conservative leader federally and run on a rather right leaning NDP platform in 2014, so seems PCs as opposed to NDP are a better fit for him.

[136or142]

Will the NDP nominate more than 13 candidates?

It reminds me of the classic Sam Cooke song "Summertime (and the NDP is stuck on 13 candidates in New Brunswick.)"  The song is a favorite of a lot of people except for New Brunswick New Democrats but there aren't many of them.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet is out with a poll and shows a tight race although due to voter efficiency PCs would probably win if the numbers hold up.  Also seems a strong age gap which bodes well for the PCs.  Off course those numbers could easily change during the campaign.

PC 39.4%
Liberal 38.1%
Green 8.9%
NDP 6.6%
Other 6.9% (I suspect most of that is People's Alliance which wasn't included)

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet includes the NDP, Conservatives and Greens in their Quebec poll, but doesn't include the People's Alliance in this one

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet includes the NDP, Conservatives and Greens in their Quebec poll, but doesn't include the People's Alliance in this one

Odd. I guess some pollsters can't use Wikipedia.

[KingSweden]

Is any NB government going to win two terms again at this rate? Graham, Alward and now Gallant all look to get bounced...

[mileslunn]

Is any NB government going to win two terms again at this rate? Graham, Alward and now Gallant all look to get bounced...

It's still close enough Gallant might eke out a win.  I suspect eventually voters will get tired of continuously turfing governments nonetheless as long as the economy is stagnant it might continue to happen.  Perhaps this will encourage some government to be bold and take risks as the status quo obviously is not working so whatever short term backlash, maybe taking a risk on something different is worth it as I've found especially in Atlantic Canada politicians tend to be risk averse so that might change this.

[136or142]

New Brunswick NDP have now nominated 16 candidates.  At the rate they're going they should have candidates in all 49 ridings by the time of the 2022 election.

[mileslunn]

New Brunswick NDP have now nominated 16 candidates.  At the rate they're going they should have candidates in all 49 ridings by the time of the 2022 election.

I suspect if they cannot find enough, the leader will just appoint several.  The danger with this though is little time to vet so if they do by chance get any momentum, real risk they will have several nutty candidates that might scare people away.  By contrast if you have your nominations far enough in advance, you can properly vet candidates and weed out anyone that might cause trouble.

[136or142]

New Brunswick NDP have now nominated 16 candidates.  At the rate they're going they should have candidates in all 49 ridings by the time of the 2022 election.

I suspect if they cannot find enough, the leader will just appoint several.  The danger with this though is little time to vet so if they do by chance get any momentum, real risk they will have several nutty candidates that might scare people away.  By contrast if you have your nominations far enough in advance, you can properly vet candidates and weed out anyone that might cause trouble.

The appointed candidates are usually both paper candidates and parachute candidates.  Often a political party will appoint a semi-vetted party executive just to have the name on the ballot.  The Newfoundland and Labrador NDP did this in a number of ridings in the last election.

I'm sure the goal of the NDP is to have at least 25 candidates on the ballot so that it can claim that it can form a majority government and so, might be in a position where it would have to implement its promises.

Although the NDP did not win any seats in New Brunswick in 2014, this is still certainly a major come down given that I believe they received their highest share of the vote in a New Brunswick provincial election in 2014.

So far the NDP is also only running two really high profile candidates: the party leader and a former head of the New Brunswick Federation of Labour.  I'm not sure what impact this semi collapse of the NDP will have in regards to the opinion polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Brunswick NDP have now nominated 16 candidates.  At the rate they're going they should have candidates in all 49 ridings by the time of the 2022 election.

I suspect if they cannot find enough, the leader will just appoint several.  The danger with this though is little time to vet so if they do by chance get any momentum, real risk they will have several nutty candidates that might scare people away.  By contrast if you have your nominations far enough in advance, you can properly vet candidates and weed out anyone that might cause trouble.

"Nutty candidates" won't be an issue for a party polling in single digits in a province so small. The Libs and PCs aren't going to waste time doing oppo research on them.

[DC Al Fine]

New Brunswick NDP have now nominated 16 candidates.  At the rate they're going they should have candidates in all 49 ridings by the time of the 2022 election.

I suspect if they cannot find enough, the leader will just appoint several.  The danger with this though is little time to vet so if they do by chance get any momentum, real risk they will have several nutty candidates that might scare people away.  By contrast if you have your nominations far enough in advance, you can properly vet candidates and weed out anyone that might cause trouble.

"Nutty candidates" won't be an issue for a party polling in single digits in a province so small. The Libs and PCs aren't going to waste time doing oppo research on them.

Agreed. A lot of people are treating this like the Ontario or BC NDP, when the more relevant comparison is to the Green Party.

[the506]

In terms of momentum and media coverage the NDP might as well be the 5th party. The People's Alliance has even passed them.

[DC Al Fine]

In terms of momentum and media coverage the NDP might as well be the 5th party. The People's Alliance has even passed them.

Do you think People's Alliance will win a seat this time?

[Hatman 🍁]

In terms of momentum and media coverage the NDP might as well be the 5th party. The People's Alliance has even passed them.

Indeed; and if the recent released polls actually probed for the PANB, they would find that the NDP was polling in fifth too. Must frustrate you when these Toronto firms swoop in and can't poll the province properly, eh?

[DC Al Fine]

In terms of momentum and media coverage the NDP might as well be the 5th party. The People's Alliance has even passed them.

Indeed; and if the recent released polls actually probed for the PANB, they would find that the NDP was polling in fifth too. Must frustrate you when these Toronto firms swoop in and can't poll the province properly, eh?

It's hit or miss even out east. CRA and MQO are based in Halifax and only the former asks about PA -.- How friggin hard is it to check Wikipedia?!

[Hatman 🍁]

"10% of voters would vote for a different party?" Huh I wonder why that would be

Meanwhile, Mainstreet is probing for the NDP and Conservatives in their Quebec polling.

[the506]

In terms of momentum and media coverage the NDP might as well be the 5th party. The People's Alliance has even passed them.

Do you think People's Alliance will win a seat this time?

Kris Austin's probably got a 60-70% chance. If everything goes right a la COR 1991 there may be even some coattails in some of the other rural seats around Fredericton, which could only be good news for the Liberals.

[the506]

Indeed; and if the recent released polls actually probed for the PANB, they would find that the NDP was polling in fifth too. Must frustrate you when these Toronto firms swoop in and can't poll the province properly, eh?

I'm surprised they're even polling, I don't think any of the big national firms did in 2014. Nobody west of NB cares enough to understand the landscape here.

"10% of voters would vote for a different party?" Huh I wonder why that would be

Obviously, they're all Moncton Centre voters for Chris Collins.

[adma]

Is there any chance of the NBNDP "pulling a Green" and focussing upon the leader's seat instead?  After all, Elizabeth Weir endured for years (and with respect) as the party's sole legislative representative...