2012 Intrade rankings
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Author Topic: 2012 Intrade rankings  (Read 32699 times)
LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #150 on: October 22, 2012, 11:13:17 PM »


                    Today's Change
Obama 61.1%     (-0.4%)           277 EV
Romney 39.3%    (+0.5%)          257 EV
Tossup  (New Hampshire)              4 EV

Lets see how this debate changes things. Things very active now.
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J. J.
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« Reply #151 on: October 23, 2012, 08:29:38 AM »
If you jumped out of Romney, jump back in.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #152 on: October 23, 2012, 03:43:28 PM »
Why have Obama's Intrade numbers gone down by 5 points today? That doesn't make a bit of sense.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #153 on: October 23, 2012, 03:49:00 PM »
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on October 23, 2012, 03:43:28 PM
Why have Obama's Intrade numbers gone down by 5 points today? That doesn't make a bit of sense.

Because it's been a pretty good day for Romney in the trackers, I guess.
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Orion0
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« Reply #154 on: October 23, 2012, 03:53:14 PM »
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on October 23, 2012, 03:43:28 PM
Why have Obama's Intrade numbers gone down by 5 points today? That doesn't make a bit of sense.

People are waking up to the fact that d+9 turnout in Ohio or any of the other swing states is a fantasy pure and simple. Reality is starting to set in and intrade reflects that.
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BM
BeccaM
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« Reply #155 on: October 23, 2012, 07:04:57 PM »
Wtf? He's dropping way too much.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #156 on: October 23, 2012, 07:09:30 PM »
As I noted Romney's polling is better now than back when he hit 45 in August. I think Romney was undervalued, now the market is correcting, especially as Romney is doing well in national polling.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #157 on: October 23, 2012, 07:10:26 PM »
Well, now we've got our answer as to what happened:

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/10/intrade-manipulation-fail.html
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J. J.
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« Reply #158 on: October 23, 2012, 07:15:18 PM »
It is more of a market reaction to the polling and that Romney/Ryan won the debate series.  It is a retrospective market reaction.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #159 on: October 23, 2012, 07:35:40 PM »
Some financial sites have found pretty high correlation between changes in the stock market and changes in Intrade for Obama.

When there are periods of high sell off's in the market Obama's numbers tend to fall simultaneously on Intrade. Today was a large sell off in the markets.
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California8429
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« Reply #160 on: October 23, 2012, 07:51:01 PM »
Updated map?
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #161 on: October 23, 2012, 07:54:29 PM »

Later tonight. Looks the same.
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J. J.
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« Reply #162 on: October 23, 2012, 08:41:47 PM »
Quote from: Likely Voter on October 23, 2012, 07:09:30 PM
As I noted Romney's polling is better now than back when he hit 45 in August. I think Romney was undervalued, now the market is correcting, especially as Romney is doing well in national polling.

Romney's at 44.6 currently.  He's up about 5-7 points.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #163 on: October 23, 2012, 08:44:13 PM »
This piece describes in detail what happened:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/23/how-to-manipulate-prediction-markets-and-boost-mitt-romneys-fortunes
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J. J.
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« Reply #164 on: October 23, 2012, 08:47:55 PM »

As noted, an ephemeral effect.  This has building most of the afternoon. 
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Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden
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« Reply #165 on: October 23, 2012, 09:02:56 PM »
Intrade had Romney in the mid-60s in Ohio a few minutes ago.  Definitely something weird going on.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #166 on: October 23, 2012, 09:07:13 PM »
Obama - 52.7
Romney - 47.1

This is rather intriguing. Perhaps someone has inside information on Trump's upcoming revelation and it's worse than most of us are fearing?
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J. J.
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« Reply #167 on: October 23, 2012, 09:09:48 PM »
Quote from: Mitt Montgomery Burns on October 23, 2012, 09:07:13 PM
Obama - 52.7
Romney - 47.1

This is rather intriguing. Perhaps someone has inside information on Trump's upcoming revelation and it's worse than most of us are fearing?

It just could be market reaction to the end of the debates, plus the close polls.  There has been a 4 point shift in D wins OH numbers. 
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #168 on: October 23, 2012, 09:09:55 PM »
Ah, here's an explanation among the comments....

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J. J.
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« Reply #169 on: October 23, 2012, 09:20:56 PM »
Quote from: Mitt Montgomery Burns on October 23, 2012, 09:09:55 PM
Ah, here's an explanation among the comments....

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D win in OH is now 48%. 
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Devils30
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« Reply #170 on: October 23, 2012, 09:22:35 PM »
I think we have some Republicans manipulating it a bit. Obama is down to 52 and it has Romney favored in Ohio based on no evidence whatsoever.
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Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden
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« Reply #171 on: October 23, 2012, 09:23:55 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on October 23, 2012, 09:22:35 PM
I think we have some Republicans manipulating it a bit. Obama is down to 52 and it has Romney favored in Ohio based on no evidence whatsoever.

Polls.
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #172 on: October 23, 2012, 09:25:26 PM »
Ya....how is there a 14 point net jump for Romney after Obama winning the debate? It's never been this active before while not having a debate.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #173 on: October 23, 2012, 09:28:24 PM »
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/23/how-to-manipulate-prediction-markets-and-boost-mitt-romneys-fortunes/
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J. J.
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« Reply #174 on: October 23, 2012, 09:32:23 PM »

This wasn't it.  Obama's numbers were falling faster than Romney was gaining.  Also OH has been moving dramatically. 
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