The absentee/early vote thread

[Dr. Arch]

All looks fine in CO:

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Good news. If NV and CO are locked, then the election is in the bag.

[Eraserhead]

What was the Dem lead in CO at this point in 2012?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Guys, do you remember how you criticised/unskewed pollster's for having too white and not black enough crosstabs? Well, guess *what


*it is though a bit too early, but still.

[Speed of Sound]

What was the Dem lead in CO at this point in 2012?

On November 5th, Dems trailed by 2%.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/early-voting-results-2012_n_2076029.html

[Dr. Arch]

When are the last early voting days this year?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

What was the Dem lead in CO at this point in 2012?

On November 5th, Dems trailed by 2%.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/early-voting-results-2012_n_2076029.html

EDIT: misstake...

In 2008, Obama won EV by 9 4% (correct me if I'm wrong), he won NVCO 9%.
In 2012, Obama    lost EV by  2%                                     , he won by  5%.

EV is not that pretty predictive. With reservation that laws didn't change too much.

[Speed of Sound]

What was the Dem lead in CO at this point in 2012?

On November 5th, Dems trailed by 2%.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/early-voting-results-2012_n_2076029.html

EDIT: misstake...

In 2008, Obama won EV by 9 4% (correct me if I'm wrong), he won NV 9%.
In 2012, Obama    lost EV by  2%                                     , he won by  5%.

EV is not that pretty predictive. With reservation that laws didn't change too much.

Hmmm....do you have a link for that '08 number? Electproject has the party difference in '08 as D+1.

[Speed of Sound]

Cohn is breaking down the Upshot's model and its current stance:

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

What was the Dem lead in CO at this point in 2012?

On November 5th, Dems trailed by 2%.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/early-voting-results-2012_n_2076029.html

EDIT: misstake...

In 2008, Obama won EV by 9 4% (correct me if I'm wrong), he won NV 9%.
In 2012, Obama    lost EV by  2%                                     , he won by  5%.

EV is not that pretty predictive. With reservation that laws didn't change too much.

Hmmm....do you have a link for that '08 number? Electproject has the party difference in '08 as D+1.

I took if from here
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/whos-really-winning-early-voting/264436/

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Oh f**k. I mixed CO and NV

[Dr. Arch]

What was the Dem lead in CO at this point in 2012?

On November 5th, Dems trailed by 2%.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/early-voting-results-2012_n_2076029.html

EDIT: misstake...

In 2008, Obama won EV by 9 4% (correct me if I'm wrong), he won NV 9%.
In 2012, Obama    lost EV by  2%                                     , he won by  5%.

EV is not that pretty predictive. With reservation that laws didn't change too much.

Hmmm....do you have a link for that '08 number? Electproject has the party difference in '08 as D+1.

I took if from here
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/whos-really-winning-early-voting/264436/

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Oh f**k. I mixed CO and NV

Yep

[Speed of Sound]

Ah, thanks for the update! These old numbers are hard to find. So if Dems break even by election day, CO +6 looks plausible, and that's about how polls look. Still, full week to go here.

[Dr. Arch]

Ah, thanks for the update! These old numbers are hard to find. So if Dems break even by election day, CO +6 looks plausible, and that's about how polls look. Still, full week to go here.

Do you know when EV ends or is it different by state?

[KingSweden]

Ah, thanks for the update! These old numbers are hard to find. So if Dems break even by election day, CO +6 looks plausible, and that's about how polls look. Still, full week to go here.

Do you know when EV ends or is it different by state?

CO is all Mail so EV never really ends

[Speed of Sound]

Ah, thanks for the update! These old numbers are hard to find. So if Dems break even by election day, CO +6 looks plausible, and that's about how polls look. Still, full week to go here.

Do you know when EV ends or is it different by state?

CO is all Mail so EV never really ends

And as for the rest, it's all over the map. Column O of this spreadsheet has them all:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vthw8zjKSm1ziPjX50dumTkO2rd4JguC6yxt-KKzgkA/edit#gid=0

[Dr. Arch]

Ah, thanks for the update! These old numbers are hard to find. So if Dems break even by election day, CO +6 looks plausible, and that's about how polls look. Still, full week to go here.

Do you know when EV ends or is it different by state?

CO is all Mail so EV never really ends

And as for the rest, it's all over the map. Column O of this spreadsheet has them all:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vthw8zjKSm1ziPjX50dumTkO2rd4JguC6yxt-KKzgkA/edit#gid=0

5 through 7 for most essentially.

[ag]

Was Democratic bed-wetting this bad in 2012? Don't remember.

I heard it was worse.

At least Romney actually led in the polls multiple times in October.

Well, I was here in 2012 and the bedwetting wasn't worse.

Dems were mostly confident of an Obama victory and I had a much harder time arguing that Romney would win.

There is a difference, though, between Romney and Trump winning. Romney winning would have meant a few years of a competent administration, which would have implemented policies with which some of those here would have disagreed. Trump meaning implies a reduction of life expectancy of all of us on this forum to about 3 years. I know that you personally have decided to commit suicide, and I would have even been willing to respect that - if you were not insisting on dragging the rest of us with you. Honestly, just putting something into Cool Aid and sharing it with your tribe would have been a more decent thing to do: it would have been indistinguishable from electing Trump in terms of consequences for you and your family, but it would have spared me and mine.

Yes, Trump may very well win as of today. And this scares me beyond belief. To think that a gigantic murder-suicide cult, bent on destruction of the human civilisation as we know it, could not merely emerge, but achieve such level of support as we are seeing today is beyond frightening. Even if Trump loses I will never again be able to look into a face of an average white American male without shuddering: I will always have to remember that this person wants to kill: himself, his family, and myself.

[JerryArkansas]

Ah, thanks for the update! These old numbers are hard to find. So if Dems break even by election day, CO +6 looks plausible, and that's about how polls look. Still, full week to go here.

They can lose by 5 and still win the state.  I'm not too worried about it.

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn and Dave Wasserman are getting into a little bit of a spat over black voter share in NC:

Greg Sargent ‏@ThePlumLineGS
Here @Nate_Cohn and the @UpshotNYT project Clinton winning NC by 6, based on early voting and their polling:

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn Nate Cohn Retweeted Greg Sargent
Key is that it's based on a poll that had Clinton up 7. If race tightened/or poll too D, these estimates will be too

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict Dave Wasserman Retweeted Nate Cohn
If AA's drop 3-4% as share of NC electorate (we don't know yet), I have hard time believing HRC will make that up among college whites.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn Nate Cohn Retweeted Dave Wasserman
Sorry, but it's just not realistic to suggest that black voters could fall to 19% of the NC electorate.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  8m8 minutes ago Washington, DC
Black, non-Hispanic share of actual and registered voters in North Carolina since 2004 cc: @Redistrict

[bilaps]

Ok, this is why I called McDonald a hack yesterday.

Today updates from early voting

In NC Dems go from minus 3,4 to minus 3,1% vs 2012 levels
Reps go from 6,9% to 8,7% in the plus column

In FL 7008 more R submited votes

In NV from 7,9 D+ to 6,6 D+

In CO from 3,5 D+ to 2,6 D+

I will admit NV and Co still looks likely D even though Ralston is not someone who is objective so you could quote him. He wrote today about rural counties "until cows come home".

bbb but. Mcdonald constantly wrote that there is no evidence of Comey thing hurting D even though it was way too early for that assumption. And now he is soo quiet.

also i don't see why is Cohn so certain at this black vote turnout, it IS down 8% in early vote. if it just follows the trend on election day 4yrs ago, it will definetly be under 19%. am i missing something there?

[Dr. Arch]

Ok, this is why I called McDonald a hack yesterday.

Today updates from early voting

In NC Dems go from minus 3,4 to minus 3,1% vs 2012 levels
Reps go from 6,9% to 8,7% in the plus column

In FL 7008 more R submited votes

In NV from 7,9 D+ to 6,6 D+

In CO from 3,5 D+ to 2,6 D+

I will admit NV and Co still looks likely D even though Ralston is not someone who is objective so you could quote him. He wrote today about rural counties "until cows come home".

bbb but. Mcdonald constantly wrote that there is no evidence of Comey thing hurting D even though it was way too early for that assumption. And now he is soo quiet.

also i don't see why is Cohn so certain at this black vote turnout, it IS down 8% in early vote. if it just follows the trend on election day 4yrs ago, it will definetly be under 19%. am i missing something there?

Freakouts as usual. I just want this to be over.

[Speed of Sound]

To FL and NV: FL stayed basically at the same margin it has been at and NV produced the same bad numbers for Dems on the same early voting day in '12. So neither of those really do seem to have shown much difference. CO has to get back to even for Clinton to only win by 6, and it was expected to do so. NC is a different beast, and I do think that it will be very very close, and probably tilts R until we see a shift in the EV trend (which may come, as some think it will. I'm a tad less confident in that).

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn Nate Cohn Retweeted Greg Sargent
Key is that it's based on a poll that had Clinton up 7. If race tightened/or poll too D, these estimates will be too

I don't than really understand what then the model is? As I understand this tweet, it is just a [Siena] poll, but instead of LV model, thay use actual results, right? Intresting and, actually, a good news for Trump, if it is true.

EDIT:
Good news for Trump, if this poll was wrong, the race changed etc..

[Brittain33]

Cohn is breaking down the Upshot's model and its current stance:

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Yup, that's the major problem with Upshot. Either they'll be brilliant on Election Day or will have been proven wrong for 2 weeks of data.

[Speed of Sound]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn Nate Cohn Retweeted Greg Sargent
Key is that it's based on a poll that had Clinton up 7. If race tightened/or poll too D, these estimates will be too

I don't than really understand what then the model is? As I understand this tweet, it is just a poll, but instead of LV model, thay use actual results, right? Intresting and, actually, a good news for Trump, if it is true.

It's at least not bad news. The model is pinned entirely to Upshot's NC+7, and they have her at +5.5, which she certainly shouldn't love. That said, if she leads polls by more than 1.5 on ED, this model says she wins.

All of that said, if there's anything wrong with the underpinnings of Upshot's demos, the whole thing is worthless.

[Ljube]

Well, the current EV results confirm what we already know:

NV and CO seem to be safe D, FL and NC seem to be lean R.