538 Model Megathread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 18, 2024, 11:37:43 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  538 Model Megathread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 84492 times)
twenty42
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 861
United States


« on: July 21, 2016, 10:19:47 AM »
June 28 polls-plus odds (release date):

79.1% Clinton, 20.9% Trump

July 21, 11:00 AM EDT:

59.9% Clinton, 40.1% Trump

Something to think about, for sure.
Logged
twenty42
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 861
United States


« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2016, 11:39:10 AM »
Quote from: Mehmentum on July 21, 2016, 11:29:30 AM
Lol, the OP is literally bragging about their candidate having a 39% chance of winning.  Sad!

Bragging? Nah...I have no personal stake in Trump winning or losing. I merely thought Trump's chances of victory doubling over the course of three weeks was worth bringing up.
Logged
twenty42
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 861
United States


« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2016, 01:14:57 PM »
Quote from: New Canadaland on July 21, 2016, 11:52:07 AM
Not to mention Silver had a 50.3% chance of Obama winning Florida in 2012. That's flipping a coin that it would take thousands of flips to determine is slightly weighted one way. In what sense was that a "call"?

Trump's very margin at this very moment in Florida.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.024 seconds with 8 queries.