538 Model Megathread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 18, 2024, 12:34:03 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  538 Model Megathread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 84493 times)
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« on: July 22, 2016, 01:08:18 PM »
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 22, 2016, 12:52:33 PM
Quote from: Sorenroy on July 22, 2016, 12:48:51 PM
For the first time in forever, Trump has passed 40% in 538's polls-plus model.

Projected as the favorite in both Ohio and Florida. That doesn't make any sense.
The model doesn't make any sense this far out.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2016, 03:55:45 PM »
Nate Silver is this cycle's premiere unskewer of polls so it is not surprise that his idiocy is evident to all.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2016, 04:03:14 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2016, 04:24:05 PM by Ebsy »
BEAUTIFUL!

Now just waiting for North Carolina and Ohio!
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2016, 02:24:39 PM »
Arizona is blue on the nowcast.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2016, 06:33:18 PM »
Quote from: JRP1994 on October 06, 2016, 05:53:59 PM
Who said that Nate Silver had turned into a partisan GOP hack now that the FiveThirtyEight model has Clinton as a 75% or better favorite?
Oh discredited fraud Nate Silver is still a paid GOP operative. Even he can't show Trump ahead anymore!
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2016, 04:14:43 PM »
Quote from: Zombie Spenstar on October 23, 2016, 03:49:36 PM
Trump's been gaining ground every day since the debate. Am I right to be a little nervous?
The junk trackers have too much influence.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2016, 03:26:13 PM »
Quote from: muon2 on October 26, 2016, 10:26:58 AM
If you use HuffPo 3-way and limit the polls to nonpartisan pollsters and likely voters the current numbers from their trend lines are Clinton 45.1%, Trump 40.7%, Johnson 5.1%. For the 2-way it gives 45.8% to 42.4% (moderate smoothing)
Why would you do any of this?
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2016, 11:02:36 AM »
The only thing dragging Trump up a little bit in the models is the many terrible tracking polls.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2016, 01:42:02 PM »
It's pretty obvious that Silver's model is a gigantic joke.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2016, 03:10:37 PM »
DOGSWEAT.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2016, 03:27:53 PM »
Quote from: Castro on November 05, 2016, 03:25:41 PM
Now Nate is trying to pin the Great Recession on Ryan Grim. Truly a sight to behold.

Nate Silver Verified account
‏@NateSilver538
Not just an issue in elections models. Failure to understand how risks are correlated is part of what led to the 2007/8 financial crisis.
lol, that's one way to frame it.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2016, 07:06:45 PM »
Quote from: LLR on November 07, 2016, 07:05:10 PM
Quote from: Meclazine on November 07, 2016, 06:08:10 PM
News.com.au predicts a Trump win:

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/why-trump-could-really-win-this/news-story/8e4bd4e6f5a65434724702ed8c8f221f

"one of the most respected pollsters in the United States, Nate Silver"

Haha. Told you top of Google meant something.

Except that he's not a pollster

Nate Silver hates when people call him a pollster.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.022 seconds with 11 queries.