538 Model Megathread

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The current Now-Cast map:

Clinton 342
Trump 196

RIP TN Volunteer

[Wells]

The current Now-Cast map:

Clinton 342
Trump 196

RIP TN Volunteer

I actually just posted it here to trigger him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Clinton's now at 63.3% in polls-only, 67.7 in polls-plus, and 82.2 in nowcast.

[IceSpear]

This is why it was pointless to start this before the conventions. Why bother showing these massive swings we all knew were coming?

[Mehmentum]

I enjoyed this description of what each of the forecasts are 'thinking' right now.

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[Stranger in a strange land]

This is why it was pointless to start this before the conventions. Why bother showing these massive swings we all knew were coming?

So that the massive swings would look cool on the graph.

[IceSpear]

I enjoyed this description of what each of the forecasts are 'thinking' right now.

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The now cast sounds a lot like the Atlas Forum!

Glad to say I sounded like Polls-plus though.

[ProudModerate2]

The swing that took place today in the 538 models, in favor of Hillary, is dramatic.
And they made me happy !
8-)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

According to today's now-cast, if Trump picks up EVERY state he has a 25% or greater chance of winning, the map looks like this:

Trump 270
Clinton 168

If Clinton picks up every state she has a 25% or greater chance in, the map looks like this:

* Missouri is at 24.9% for Clinton

Clinton 384
Trump 154

[Mallow]

This is why it was pointless to start this before the conventions. Why bother showing these massive swings we all knew were coming?

The polls-plus version has been remarkably steady.

[Wiz in Wis]

According to today's now-cast, if Trump picks up EVERY state he has a 25% or greater chance of winning, the map looks like this:

Trump 270
Clinton 168

If Clinton picks up every state she has a 25% or greater chance in, the map looks like this:

* Missouri is at 24.9% for Clinton

Clinton 384
Trump 154

Has there been an election where one candidate has carried all 13 original states? 36?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

1984 also.

[/]

According to today's now-cast, if Trump picks up EVERY state he has a 25% or greater chance of winning, the map looks like this:

Trump 270
Clinton 168

If Clinton picks up every state she has a 25% or greater chance in, the map looks like this:

* Missouri is at 24.9% for Clinton

Clinton 384
Trump 154

Those two maps actually look really, really realistic, with the exceptions of Nevada in the first and Missouri in the second.

It would also be pretty cool if Clinton won all thirteen original colonies.

[Wiz in Wis]

1984 also.

Yeah, Roosevelt did it 3 times actually, 36, 40, and 44

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

1984 also.

Yeah, Roosevelt did it 3 times actually, 36, 40, and 44

Wow, I'm amazed he won New Hampshire three times.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Another interesting game to pay is to match red states with blue states by probability of flipping.

In polls-plus:

DC, MD, HI = OK, AL
CA = WV, ID
NY, MA = NE-3, WY
IL = NE-AL, KS, UT, AR, LA, TN
VT, RI = KY
WA = TX, IN, MS
NJ, DE, CT, ME-1, OR = MT, ND, SD, AK
NM = SC
MI = NE-1, MO
VA, MN, ME-AL = GA
PA, CO = AZ
NV = NE-2
IA = NC

Trump is closer to these than Clinton is to any Trump states:
FL, OH, NH, ME-2

[fldemfunds]

According to today's now-cast, if Trump picks up EVERY state he has a 25% or greater chance of winning, the map looks like this:

Trump 270
Clinton 168

If Clinton picks up every state she has a 25% or greater chance in, the map looks like this:

* Missouri is at 24.9% for Clinton

Clinton 384
Trump 154

Those two maps actually look really, really realistic, with the exceptions of Nevada in the first and Missouri in the second.

It would also be pretty cool if Clinton won all thirteen original colonies.

I don't think we see South Carolina flip. That seems like a bit of a stretch.

[LLR]

According to today's now-cast, if Trump picks up EVERY state he has a 25% or greater chance of winning, the map looks like this:

Trump 270
Clinton 168

If Clinton picks up every state she has a 25% or greater chance in, the map looks like this:

* Missouri is at 24.9% for Clinton

Clinton 384
Trump 154

Those two maps actually look really, really realistic, with the exceptions of Nevada in the first and Missouri in the second.

It would also be pretty cool if Clinton won all thirteen original colonies.

I don't think we see South Carolina flip. That seems like a bit of a stretch.

*triggered*

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I don't think we see South Carolina flip. That seems like a bit of a stretch.

The 538 now-cast gives Clinton a better chance of taking SC than Trump has of taking OH (?!).

0-1%
TRUMP: DC, HI, CA, MD, NY, MA, IL
CLINTON: WV, AL, OK, ID

1-5%
TRUMP: VT, RI, NJ, WA
CLINTON: WY, NE-3, TN, LA

5-10%
TRUMP: OR, CO, NM, DE, CT, WI, MI, ME-1
CLINTON: NE, KS, AR

10-25%
TRUMP: MN, PA, VA, ME
CLINTON: IN, TX, MT, ND, SD, NE-1, UT, KY, MS, MO, AK

25-40%
TRUMP: NV, IA, OH, FL, NC
CLINTON: SC

40-50%
TRUMP: ME-2, NH
CLINTON: NE-2, AZ, GA

[dspNY]

538 Nowcast this morning has Arizona at exactly 50-50 and Georgia with a 48.6% chance for HRC

[Wiz in Wis]

A bit off topic, but MSNBC just plotted out Hillary's ceiling at this time: Here was the map:

Pretty much lines up with all of the states where Hillary has >25% chance of winning today in 538 Nowcast.

[dspNY]

The polls-only and polls-plus will also move to 90% or more for Clinton if we get a bunch of Florida polls like Suffolk showing Clinton up 6 points

[Xing]

Man, the now-cast map is absolutely bluetiful! And he hasn't even entered in the FL Suffolk poll.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A bit off topic, but MSNBC just plotted out Hillary's ceiling at this time: Here was the map:

Pretty much lines up with all of the states where Hillary has >25% chance of winning today in 538 Nowcast.

Today's >25% nowcast for Clinton:

*SD is at 24.9%

At >20% SD, ND, MT, TX, and MS flip.
At >15% IN flips.

>25% nowcast for Trump:

At >20% NV flips.
At >15% IA, OH, FL, and NH flip.  This will get Trump to exactly 270.

In other words, if Trump's ceiling is 270 EVs, Clinton's ceiling is 468:

[evergreenarbor]

Happy South Dakota Farmers strike again.