Here are three scenarios. Bernie would have no chance of winning, but would end up burning the bridge for Hillary to win the election.
1. Assuming the 2016 campaign is otherwise similar/the same, Bernie is mostly just a nuisance that only takes a tiny fragment of Clinton voters, which ends up spoiling MN, NH, and ME for Trump.
Trump - 328 EV, 45.7%Clinton - 210 EV, 46.4%Sanders - 0 EV, 1.9%2. Bernie has a moderate showing (somewhat similar to Perot '96), possibly to the point of participating in debates. Has little effect outside of the Northeast (where Bernie gets 4 EVs), Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest.
Trump - 364 EV, 45.5%Clinton - 170 EV, 41.9%Sanders - 4 EV, 9.3%3. Bernie ends up totally splitting the Democratic electorate while Republicans are mostly united, and basically causes anti-1992 to an even stronger extent.
Trump - 451 EV, 44.9%Clinton - 72 EV, 28.2%Sanders - 15 EV, 25.4%
