Florida Megathread (user search)
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JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
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« on: July 09, 2015, 10:38:42 AM »

Oh god there is going to be many pickup opertunities.  Dems lose one with Grahmn,  pick one up in Orlando most likely, the 13, and maybe the 26.  So a net gain of about 1 or 2.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2015, 10:59:23 AM »

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.
Which means? New pick ups?

According to this post on Daily Kos-

http://www.floridasupremecourt.org/decisions/2015/OP-SC14-1905_LEAGUE%20OF%20WOMEN%20VOTERS_JULY09.pdf

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Basically RIP Gwen Graham.
Wait wait,
Gwen Graham's district isn't already "safe rep"?
Oh god no, it only has a cook PVI of R+6.  Not to bad.  Hardly easy to win, but not impossible
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2015, 12:40:50 PM »

Looking past the Brown and Graham contest, this ruling really doesn't hurt many incumbents.  If they go for a least change map, which is hard, all incumbents besides Jolly would run in districts which match the current vote by about 3 points. 
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2015, 01:09:42 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2015, 01:12:22 PM by JerryArkansas »

Looking past the Brown and Graham contest, this ruling really doesn't hurt many incumbents.  If they go for a least change map, which is hard, all incumbents besides Jolly would run in districts which match the current vote by about 3 points. 

I think a GOP Rep in the Orlando is gonna take a hit. Grayson's seat is already 62% and there is a lot of Dem voters in the area that were in Brown's seat. Also the 26th will become a few more points Democratic, meaning Curbelo will probably be in more trouble than he actually was. Will probably result in D+2 in 2016.


With what I was drawing earlier, I had the map rigged to where Ted Yoho would run in the new 2nd, Sandy Adams in my new 3rd, which took in Gainesville and the coast, and John Mica would run in the new 6th.  It would all rely on Yoho and where he ran.  As for the 26th, I shore up Curbelo and give the city of Homestead to the 27th.  The city is not that big, only puts the 27th about 40 thousand over pop equality.  Just trade some precincts in the north.  It's not hard to keep the gains down to 1, assuming the 18th is picked up by reps.
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