Rasmussen: CT Gov - Rell (R) 65%, Malloy (D) 21%, DeStefano (D) 19%

[dazzleman]

Rell is an excellent politician.  She knows just how to hit the perfect pitch on all the major issues.

[dazzleman]

Why is she so popular?  All I know about her is she survived breast cancer, replaced a corrupt governor (she was actually part of his administration), and signed civil unions into law.

I live in the state, so I've been watching her closely for the past 1-1/2 years that she's been governor.

Part of it is that she isn't John Rowland.  He was pretty popular up until 2003, but lost his popularity when his lying became clear.  She came in like a breath of fresh air, and projected enough distance from him not to get caught up in his scandals.

Part of it is her personality.  She has a very pleasing personality, and appears to be open to various points of view.

She gives the conservatives (or what pass for conservatives in Connecticut) just enough to keep them from revolting, while appearing open to more liberal viewpoints.

Interestingly enough, I got a fundraising letter from her recently, and she didn't mention a word about civil unions.  She successfully presented it in such a manner that she is credited with settling the issue without allowing gay marriage, and that's enough for her supporters.

She refused to commute the death sentence of Michael Ross earlier this year, another popular position.  She also said that if the state legislature tried to repeal the death penalty, she would veto it.  The attempted repeal failed by a large margin.

Part of her popularity is that she didn't really have to make very hard choices in her budget.  State revenues are up, and incumbent governors are usually popular when that is the case.  And her strongest potential opponent -- Richard Blumenthal -- has chickened out of a run.

There is also a feeling even among many Democrats that the Democratic party should not control both the legislative and executive branches.

[dazzleman]

Why is she so popular?  All I know about her is she survived breast cancer, replaced a corrupt governor (she was actually part of his administration), and signed civil unions into law.

Didn't she also veto an death penalty abolition bill recently?

She said she would veto the bill if it passed, but it failed by a wide margin, 89-60 in the lower house, IIRC.

[dazzleman]

So do you think Rell can hit 65% re-election mark? Even 70% against a no-name Democrat who is poorly funded?

Rowland hit 65% against Barbara Kennelly in 1998, so Rell can probably do it.  I wouldn't expect more than that, and even 65% would be pretty tough, since there are lot of people who will vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is as a matter of principle, even if they like Rell.

[dazzleman]

Rowland received 62.90% to be annoyingly precise. Its on this website: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/GOVERNOR/index.html.

I guess Joe Lieberman will be running for re-election; Lieberman is popular amongst both Republicans and Democrats and in 1994 and 2000 garned margins above what Rowland received. In 2006, in what is likely to be a Democratic year, he could got 62%-68% I feel. That would affect Rell's chances of hitting Rowland's 62.90% (likely) or above and around Lieberman's (67% in 1994, 63% in 2000) (unlikely)

Thanks.  I was going by memory, and I thought that 1998 election was 65-35.  In that case, I doubt Rell will hit 65%.  Lieberman interestingly enough has his major opposition coming from the left due to his Iraq war stance.  That old blowhard Lowell Weicker is making noises about a rematch of their 1988 race, when conservatives voted for Lieberman and he defeated the incumbent Weicker.  That would be an interesting one.  In that case, even I would probably vote Democratic for that race.