So Russia and Georgia just went to war

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Luckily, France, in the name of EU, comes in the game and say:

"Please turn back to your positions of before the war"

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080809/wl_afp/georgiasossetiarussiaunrest_080809203148;_ylt=Av1VBQTjbEEFSUJapBQW8Z6s0NUE

...

What did you expect Kouchner to say? Kill all Russians? Kill all Georgians? Kill all South Ossetis?

I would have expected him to propose serious and accurate things. With what happened the situation just can't no more be as before, and it seems so evident for me that I wonder why I write it.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Luckily, France, in the name of EU, comes in the game and say:

"Please turn back to your positions of before the war"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080809/wl_afp/georgiasossetiarussiaunrest_080809203148;_ylt=Av1VBQTjbEEFSUJapBQW8Z6s0NUE

...

What did you expect Kouchner to say? Kill all Russians? Kill all Georgians? Kill all South Ossetis?

I would have expected him to propose serious and accurate things. With what happened the situation just can't no more be as before, and it seems so evident for me that I wonder why I write it.

     The thing is, any realistic proposal would probably anger either the Georgians or the Russians. He probably just said what he did to avoid fanning the flames, so that a real compromise will be more easily reached in due time.

[GMantis]

You know, I've been reading this thread, and others, for some time...

And I keep getting reminders - especially from Dessie Potter/GMantis "Whatever the Russians do is good! Whatever the Americans do is evil!" - of why I so dislike the European Left Wing. I was expecting a whole lot of 'well the Georgians are pro-American, and so we'll find some way to blame everything on them so we don't interrupt the energy supplies from Russia' and I'm seeing some of that already. Gee, where are all the people who have been screaming over the U.S. violating Iraq's internal affairs all these years?

Bloody hell, Dessie, is it EVER possible for the Russians to do wrong in your world?

And for the record, my best bet, based on available information, is that the South Ossetians actually instigated this by shelling Georgian villages. Naturally, with the Russians' approval and foreknowledge, since isn't it awfully convenient that the Russians just happened to have all these troops ready to swoop in at a moment's notice, no preparation required?

But don't worry, no matter what the Russians do I expect certain people to justify every action they do.

Poor Georgians, they've been screwed over by the Russians ever since independence and it looks like it's going to continue. I can't really blame them, even if they are doomed - they've been facing the carving up of their county for over a decade now and now we're going to see it get finalized because nobody ever wants to tell the Russians "no".

If you can't tell, of course I back the Georgians - I did so back in 1992 and 1993, as well, and yes, I saw the hand of Russia back then as well.

Hmm, I haven't launched an incendiary blast over foreign policy for ages now, although I certainly have been tempted while reading a lot of threads on this board.

Isn't it strange how no one accuses those condemning Russia in one voice of acting mindlessly, but I'm accused are once.
I do not support everything the Russians do. They have escalated the conflict needlessly by bombing targets deep in Georgia and they seem to be using this as an opportunity to teach Georgia a lesson.
However, I can't support Georgia. Who started the current escalation is difficult to determine - there is simply insufficient information. However it was the Georgian army which attacked Tskhinvali under the slogan of restoring constitutional order and nearly destroyed the city, probably killing hundreds. For 12 hours or more the Russians didn't actually do anything - strange reaction for someone who has reportedly instigated everything. Meanwhile, the western media (and especially the US one) slept. They came to life only after the Russians counterattacked. Now they are trying to twist things around, as I've mentioned above; of course, it wouldn't be the first time.
About Saakashvilli. When he came to power, he said he would return Adjaria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia to Georgia. The Adjarians, being Georgians gave in easily. However, the Ossetians and Abkhazians had led a bloody war with Georgia and had little wish to return. So even then it should have been obvious that he was planning to use force to regain those territories. The military budget was increased enormously, forces were send to Iraq to "prepare them". Meanwhile the tensions with the breakaway regions escalated. The Russians were also partially at fault there. South Ossetia perhaps should have accepted the Georgian proposal. How much their refusal was due to Russian pressure or due to an unwillingness to return to a country which had forced a 100 thousand Ossetians to flee to Russia (no one's commented about this, I wonder why...) is unclear. Saakashvilli might have wanted to solve this peacefully, but the military option was clearly on the table all the time.
It's a complicated question whether Russia had the right to intervene. Their peacekeepers were probably not very neutral. The Georgians may not have attacked them on purpose - when you're shelling a city with artillery, accuracy is difficult to achieve. However, I don't think any strong nation would accept such an attack and not retaliate in some why. Much has been made of the fact that 93% percent of the South Ossetians are Russian citizens. This is not the case of them being made to take Russian citizenship. Before the first conflict with Georgia started, they had only Soviet citizenship, which became useless after the collapse. They couldn't get Georgian citizenship, so what other recognized citizenship could they take? This was the only way they could travel or receive pensions, for instance. Now, whether Russia was justified to attack another country to defend its citizens is questionable, but again, probably no nation in the caliber of Russia would just stand by.

The interests of the west are more in line with helping the people then harming them. Unlike the Soviets. See what the Soviets did to the Ukraine over energy a few years back.

Yeah, how dare those damn Soviets (somehow existing 13 years after their collapse) impose market prices on the Ukraine!

Market prices had absolutely nothing to do with that incident. That was Russian retaliation against Ukraine because they hate(d) Yushchenko and were still mad they hadn't killed him with that dioxin in 2004. Yushchenko was getting too friendly with the West, in the Kremlin's opinion, just like Georgia has been doing, and in both cases, they've tried to stop it.

Well, probably the idealistic thing to do would be to continue subsiding the Ukraine even after they stopped being a friendly country ( they had also stolen gas  for several years), but it would be absurd from any sensible policy.

The most amusing thing about this is the fact that it's Russia's own ethnic minority enclave, Chechnya, that's getting the worst treatment in the former Soviet Union, yet it's also incidentally the only one Russia doesn't support. There are few things more blatant than Russia's double standard here. I say this as someone who was pretty fucking happy when the Russians took out that monster Shamil Besayav.

The Chechens had their independence. They made Chechnya in a bandit state, where people where abducted for ransom and then and their heads cut off, then they finally launched terrorist attacking Russia and attacked Dagestan. Yes, it's strange why the Russians don't support them.
And please don't equate me with the European left - they haven't been very active on this thread, but it's obvious that they would condemn Russia even louder than the Americans (even if the European media is more objective than the US one).
Now this post will probably ignored, but perhaps at least no one will invent my positions for me.

[dead0man]

We'll turn our backs on them like we (not just the US, the West at large) have done many times before all over the world.  If we have nothing to gain but the liberty of others, we're not very consistent about helping.

You think we SHOULD intervene?

It would make more sense than helping Saudi Arabia.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Last events:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/georgia_south_ossetia;_ylt=Asj5_XWxYUqWqdE3ora8ghqs0NUE

Now that Georgia has accepted to militarily leave South Ossetia, the crisis could go down.

Now we have to know if it is ready do definitely give up its sovereignty on the place given that Russia militarily took it and said that Georgia will now have to give up this province. It seems that it would be the same for Abkhazia.

But before the next security council to speak about all of this, Russia could profit of the fact that things are not yet clear to continue its military actions against Georgia.

[Silent Hunter]

The Russians have been mistreating the Georgians since before independence. In fact, for a good couple of centuries.

[dead0man]

The Russians have been mistreating the Georgians since before independence. In fact, for a good couple of centuries.

but haven't you heard?  The Georgians started it...THIS TIME!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, I guess Georgia has just "surrendered"... they've declared an unilateral cease-fire.

[StateBoiler]

Azerbaijan is actually giving vocal support to Georgia. Not very surprising but does this mean anything?

Well Russia did the same thing to them in the early 1990s over Nagorno karabakh so it makes sense they would have little tolerance for the Russian "we are supporting separatists in your borders under the guise of peacekeepers" game.

Nagorno-Karabakh is not an issue between Russia and Azerbaijan, it's an issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It's something like a 75% majority Armenian region completely surrounded by Azerbaijan.

In response to Idaho's question, unless Azerbaijan commits troops to help Georgia, their support is not worth a rat's ass.

[Silent Hunter]

Well, I guess Georgia has just "surrendered"... they've declared an unilateral cease-fire.

Which Moscow says hasn't happened. Now they've just bombed Tbilisi international airport.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Azerbaijan is actually giving vocal support to Georgia. Not very surprising but does this mean anything?

Well Russia did the same thing to them in the early 1990s over Nagorno karabakh so it makes sense they would have little tolerance for the Russian "we are supporting separatists in your borders under the guise of peacekeepers" game.

Nagorno-Karabakh is not an issue between Russia and Azerbaijan, it's an issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It's something like a 75% majority Armenian region completely surrounded by Azerbaijan.

In response to Idaho's question, unless Azerbaijan commits troops to help Georgia, their support is not worth a rat's ass.

Like Transnistria, the Armenian occupation of the region is mostly Russian-backed. This is one case where I have a lot more sympathy for the secessionist state though, since it's mostly just Armenians trying to be left alone by the people who've treated them like utter garbage for 1500 years (Azeris basically being just a different brand of Turks.)

At the fall of the Soviet Union, most of Azerbaijan, including the capital Baku had a significant Armenian population. They don't anymore, since most were ethnically cleansed immediately following the fall of the Soviet Union, through actions though more comparable to pro-KKK white mobs lynching blacks rather than systematic ethnic cleansing (though of course, the government did nothing to stop it, which they could've.) The Azeris also committed quite a few horrific massacres in Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 90s.

The Armenians have pretty much served as the whipping boy for anti-Christian Muslims for the entire existance of the Armenian nation.

[StateBoiler]

There's been three new articles on the conflict on an armchair admiral's blog I read.

http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/

I suggest reading all three, but here are the highlights. All times are eastern U.S. time:

Article at 9:50pm last night:

-A lot of "noise" out there as far as what is reliable info and what is not
-Both states are controlling outgoing info and sending out both accurate and inaccurate info
-Georgian internet still on; Russia have been disruptive with cyber attacks, Russia has pounded military and specific government websites; Russia have not eliminated bandwidth, but are jamming the satellites
-Ukrainian sources are updating every 2-3 hours on action going on at Russia's Black Sea staging area; so Russia is doing stuff out there right in the open
-Ukrainians have mixed feelings on the conflict; the entire fight is about Russia from their end and whether you're pro-Russia or anti-Russia, no one cares about Georgia
-Georgian forces are putting up quite a fight
-conventional Russian forces have not entered the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali; Tskhinvali is being ruled by snipers; vehicles on both sides take a pounding when visible; Russia does not appear to have sufficient infantry yet
-Russia is working to surround the city with armor and mechanized forces, and intends to enter the city with infantry to support the mechanized units; he notes that this was the U.S. strategy when they took over Fallujah
-the 58th Army of Russia has suffered some damage, conflicting reports on how much; Georgia is having a degree of success with irregular and conventional forces
-both countries have used artillery on Tskhinvali and the city has been blasted to hell
-civilian death toll probably higher than being reported
-Georgian air force still flying sorties, he says this is incredible!

Midnight article:

-NY Times reports Russian navy dispatched from Ukrainian Black Sea base and will land troops in a port city in Abkhazia called Ochamchire
-Russia notified western governments it was moving ships toward Abkhazia
-on July 31st, Russia announced that Ochamchire in Abkhazia had a major railroad completed going toward it; he ventures this means it will be a logistical base
-it could also be that Ochamchire will just be a "ferry point" from the larger Russian port of Adler, 100 miles north of Abkhazia and thus bypassing land transport in the tough terrain

2:10am article:

-Georgian Army gave withdrawel orders to forces in Tskhinvali; began around 5am local time
-more than 100 Georgian soldiers were killed by all-night artillery, city is completely destroyed, civilian casualties are very high

10:50am article today:

-Russian navy confirmed that a section of the Black Sea Fleet was heading to the Georgian coastline and it included a missile cruiser; three assault ships were earlier sent to the same destination
-Georgian government statement says Russia sent 4000 troops to Ochamchire and have already landed; author notes that if all seven ships that were sent were fully loaded, they couldn't carry 4000 troops, and wonders if Russia had sent more ships than are being reported, maybe a commercial ship
-Ukraine not excited about being a forward operating naval base for Russia and has threatened to block ships helping the Russian campaign from returning; author questions practical effects of this, and that this war has exposed a Russian weakness in the Black Sea with its basing
-Russia has put in place a blockade on Georgia, denying passage for a Moldovan-flagged ship, but is denying it is doing so; he notes that up to this point, Russia had been fairly honest about what they've been doing in that they've not hidden their desire to secure Abkhazia and South Ossetia and this marks a departure from that
-in international law, a blockade is an official act of war (see Cuban Missile Crisis and why we called a blockade a quarantine)
-with the Georgian withdrawel from South Ossetia, Russian's stated position of "peacekeepers" has reached its limit as since the opponent's army has withdrawn, there's no reason to fight against them
-the ball is in Russia's court, and the question is how far it will push and what the world will do if they decide to do so

[StateBoiler]

The Georgian President right now is on CNN stating his case.

[Meeker]

What are the chances of Ukraine getting involved militarily?

[StateBoiler]

What are the chances of Ukraine getting involved militarily?

If they're smart, zero.

[Meeker]

What are the chances of Ukraine getting involved militarily?

If they're smart, zero.

Are they smart?

[Silent Hunter]

The Georgian President right now is on CNN stating his case.

He's been doing that a lot on the international networks.

Apparently, the Georgians shot down a Tu-22 "Blinder" (I don't think the Russians have those still) or a Tu-22M "Backfire".

Ukrainian population are apparently divided on this.

[StateBoiler]

This is...crazy. From the Guardian:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/10/georgia.russia4

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Chechen peacekeepers and Cossack volunteers. That's the ticket.

[GMantis]

Well, I guess Georgia has just "surrendered"... they've declared an unilateral cease-fire.

Which Moscow says hasn't happened. Now they've just bombed Tbilisi international airport.

That was in fact a millitary airport:
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSLA69550520080810
The Russian external ministry claims that Georgia hasn't ended the fire, though they have received the note anouncing the ceasefire.
There is some dispute whether the Georgians have evacuated the whole of South Ossetia or whether they have only returned to the lines in the beginning of the conflict.

[GMantis]

On a side note this little adventure has done wonders for Mikhail Saakashvili’s relations with the parliamentary opposition. When last we checked in with them a few months ago they were accusing him of rigging the Presidential elections. Now they are voting him emergency powers.

This works on the other side as well. Putin was very unpopulat in North Ossetia after the mishandling of the Beslan crisis and now he's the most popular man there.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gMtka75bFWjJ0vQJurlFm_NO_0bwD92ETTV80

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ukrainian population are apparently divided on this.

Shock

[Dan the Roman]

I am not suprised the Russian Army is having trouble. Its performance in Chechnya was unimpressive, and man for man it is vastly inferior to the Georgian forces.

Unfortunately in the long run this is not a man for man conflict, and the Russian Navy and Air force, both if which have an overwhelming superiority, seem to be begining to tell.

They probably could nominally overrun Georgia if they wanted to.The real question is, have their recent successes made them that foolishly cocky. It is not a fun country to occupy, and I am sure the Turks and Azeris would be happy to keep the Georgian insurgents well-supplied with weapons.

As a serious matter the Russians have blundered in PR by not making a bigger deal out of EU condemnation of the last Presidential elections in Georgia./ If i were the Russian Ambassador facing Saakashvili on TV would hammer home the fact that the same people who are supporting him now cited serious irregularities with his election a few months ago.

[GMantis]

I am not suprised the Russian Army is having trouble. Its performance in Chechnya was unimpressive, and man for man it is vastly inferior to the Georgian forces.

Unfortunately in the long run this is not a man for man conflict, and the Russian Navy and Air force, both if which have an overwhelming superiority, seem to be begining to tell.

They probably could nominally overrun Georgia if they wanted to.The real question is, have their recent successes made them that foolishly cocky. It is not a fun country to occupy, and I am sure the Turks and Azeris would be happy to keep the Georgian insurgents well-supplied with weapons.

As a serious matter the Russians have blundered in PR by not making a bigger deal out of EU condemnation of the last Presidential elections in Georgia./ If i were the Russian Ambassador facing Saakashvili on TV would hammer home the fact that the same people who are supporting him now cited serious irregularities with his election a few months ago.

I doubt the Russians intend to occupy Georgia. They'll probably limit themselves to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, where the supposed advantages of the Georgians willbe minimized.

[StateBoiler]

I am not suprised the Russian Army is having trouble. Its performance in Chechnya was unimpressive, and man for man it is vastly inferior to the Georgian forces.

Part of Chechnya was Soviet aftermath and how the troops weren't getting a lot in the way of a paycheck, not to mention lack of maintenance to equipment. That problem doesn't exist now what with the energy market. But like was stated elsewhere, this was Russia's first foreign deployment in 19 years. You have to go way back to when Gorbachev was in power. There's certain to be cobwebs. One of the nice side effects of temporary excursions that the U.S. military does every so often is it provides on-the-job training to our military for when the "real" fight comes.

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Agree. This is Israel's main problem with their neighbors. They're technologically superior, but the neighbors can afford to be far more expendable with their forces.

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This is where we can tell the strategic intelligence of Putin, Medvedev, and the other people that run the country. Soviet Cold War strategy was always based on using Eastern Europe as a buffer. If I were running Russia, I wouldn't want to annex Georgia, I'd just use it as a buffer state while hinting to Georgians to vote for leaders that don't openly hate us or want to join NATO. Looking at a map, Abkhazia makes sense to annex. South Ossetia just from looking at a map looks indefensible to me. It's just a finger sticking out into Georgia and could get attacked from three directions.

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I disagree. Because Russia rejects the wisdom of the EU and what they think about Russia's own elections as a matter of sovereignty. So if they used the EU's point about the Georgian leader's election, that means that Russia would be admitting the EU would also have a point on how Russian elections are carried out, which the Russians categorically reject.

[2952-0-0]

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hV2N6fVKS5slf10A13Dj_uIdaZ4QD92FJCEG0

Now the war has moved onto the seas.

The Russians now have full air and sea supremacy.

Meanwhile all the airlines are getting the fuk out:

http://www.tbilisiairport.com/0.php?id=1