Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[pepper11]

Looks like the drop off of McCain's monster Thursday and the new party ID weighting nearly cancelled each other out.

[pepper11]

All of these supposedly 'nightly' numbers don't jive with this posted on Rasmussen on their South Carolina Senate race.

"The South Carolina survey was conducted on Thursday night. Several state polls conducted that evening showed very positive results for Democrats and it was one of Barack Obama’s best recent nights in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. It remains to be seen whether this was a temporary blip in the race or the beginning of a new trend leading to a significant advantage for the Democrats."

This sounds like bigger than a 2 point lead for Obama as stated in previous posts.  In any case, this night will drop off tomorrow so we will likely see a tied race tomorrow.

[pepper11]

If your number of Obama + 3 last night is correct, the Rasmussen state pulls are insanely good for McCain as they took place on the same night.

[pepper11]

Those one day totals are a total farce. The are not listed even on premium membership.  McCain did not win Sunday by 5 and Obama did not win yesterday by 6 or 7. 

[pepper11]

No its by someone else.

[pepper11]

edit

[pepper11]

If you goto the morning video it gives you a preview of the polls.

[pepper11]

I am pretty sure a Pro-Obama sample is coing off tomorrow. I think the last 2 days have been about +4.  We will likely see +4 O tomorrow.

[pepper11]

So its not down to a four point margin, but the internals actually have better news for McCain. Obama was at +7 last week among 'certain voters' (Obama 45 McCain 38)- you can only see this as a premium member. Today it is only +2 (Obama 42, McCain 40). The trend has been that the leaners in Rasmussen's daily report lag a few days behind the certain voters. This has remained a consistent pattern throughout the tracking poll.  If it continues, and I expect it should - McCain should close to 2 or 3 points in the next few days.

[pepper11]

Another state for McCain to retreat from. Put the money in CO.

[pepper11]

Excellent news and just as anticipated.  Should narrow even more in the upcoming days. Mac is back.

[pepper11]

Monday- October 20

Obama: 50 (-1)
McCain: 46 (+1)

Cetrain voters: Obama + 2

Don't know how this jives with one of the worst news day of the campaign for McCain.
 
 
 

[pepper11]

 Ras breaks his voters into certain, likely, lean and shows the crosstabs on premium service. 

Yesterday certain voters were 45-39 Obama. Today 43-41 Obama. I know the Thursday sample was pro-Obama, but yesterday must have been a decent McCain sample. A 4 point swing is quite large.

[pepper11]

must have been a BIG night for McCain last night, maybe even even. Comeback!!

[pepper11]

Ras's new weighting is almost +8 Democrat this week. Not saying it is wrong, but it is the closest its ever been to Kos.

[pepper11]

Friday October 31

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 47 (+1)