Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

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Did their site crash from traffic or is it normal to get error messages this time of day?

I have been trying to get into the site for a while now, I think they maybe changing a few thing or something.

the DNC is conducting a DOS attack on Rasmussen so that they can continue to pretend Sarah Palin is just a very bad dream.

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the DNC is conducting a DOS attack on Rasmussen so that they can continue to pretend Sarah Palin is just a very bad dream.

Have you considered the possibility that the sample for today is so strongly McCain that they want some extra time to process it before releasing it?

humor, it was humor

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please delete the guess   its confusing

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2/3 of the sample were interviewed prior to the Palin speech; all were interviewed prior to the McCain speech.  This is going to get uglier for Obama before it gets better.

IIRC, convention bumps are very elastic.  The underlying structure of this race would seem to point to a 5-8 point advantage for Obama.   Why Obama is unable to ride with those undercurrents is a mystery to me.

But, I would say Obama still has about a 75% chance to win.

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Samspade, good guess.  538 did an algorithm to figure out the exact (roughly) day-to-day numbers:

Why is Obama still leading in day by day tracking polls during the GOP convention when the inverse wasn't the same for McCain during the DNC convention?

is this a serious question?  if so...probably because the race was close going into the DNC and Obama grabbed the lead within a day and received a bounce from the week's DNC convention...now McCain and the GOP are receiving their bounce from the RNC, but we won't know the full extent until next week.  If the RNC bounce > DNC bounce, McCain will probably be leading come next week, else, Obama will be leading.

Not sure if Obama has figured out what to do with Palin yet, though I did hear they were sending Hil-Lary down to FL and sending all the Dem female Governors out to run naked through the streets.  Good thing Ann Richards isn't still around.

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Can someone remind me which presidential nominee has been aligned with the very personification of ineptitude (Mr 34%, according to Rasmussen) 90% of the time in the Senate? Is contributing to the mess really worthy of a 22% net approval rating?

Four more years of America's international standing in the gutter; four more years of relentless attacks on middle class living standards; four more years of blue collar jobs being outsourced. Ugh

I'm going to wipe the floor with McCain if he wins - and things aren't a hell of a lot better in four years time. And that's a promise

Dave

look at the bright side...in four years, Palin's daughter Willow will be 18.

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strange that McCain polled better over the weekend...any thoughts to explain this?

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I guess one might assume that Obama may well have had the lead in last night's individual polling numbers?

Yes. if the trends are any indication, the numbers for the last three nights were M+5, O+2, O+3 (four days ago was a tie), or something along those lines. So expect Obama to be in the lead by a point or two tomorrow (but no guarantees, they do sometimes have odd one-day movements).

an eight point swing for Obama from Sat to Mon (which doesn't make sense at all) means we are putting way too much value into the final result and instead need to consider this race tied if either candidate is within 3-4 points of each other.

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Obama has in the high single digits of campaign offices in N.D., while McCain has none.

I make no pretense that that will swing enough voters to overcome a 14-point gap in a state that always votes Republican, but it's interesting nonetheless. We're going to see what happens when a campaign works a state it should have close to no hope to winning.

ND was never going to a deciding factor, even if Obama won it with 52% of the national vote.  Time to close up shop and move the operation to Minn/Wisc/Iowa

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Friday - September 12, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% / 49%, including leaners (+2, +1)
Obama: 45% / 46%, including leaners (-1, -2)

Lipstick....Lipstick...Lipstick...I mean....Sarah...Sarah...Sarah

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Friday - September 12, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% / 49%, including leaners (+2, +1)
Obama: 45% / 46%, including leaners (-1, -2)

One, this is too late to be a post convention bounce.

Two, the 'bots are fairly stable and don't have midweek bounce.

This is either a bad sample, or McCain is opening up a lead.  If it's a bad sample, we'll know by Monday, if not sooner.

no, Wednesday was just bad high sample for Obama.  All of us Christians were at Wednesday night service handling snakes.  But Thursday night, those of us who survived the snake bites were back home.

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I'd expect Obama to get a bump in the polls due to the hurricane coverage. Every time Obama is out of the spotlight his numbers rise.

like...during the DNC?

I think Sen. McCain wil get a bump in the polls due to the Ike. Why you ask? Well, gas prices, Sen. McCain wants to drill off-shore and most Americans do, Sen. Obama doesn't want to.

and the Palin interviews will still be playing

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6, 7, 8, points?

According to my chart - Obama 6.19% to 9.18%

so, it went from McCain +5 to Obama >+6 in the span of 24 hours?...time to start ignoring daily numbers, guys

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6, 7, 8, points?

According to my chart - Obama 6.19% to 9.18%

so, it went from McCain +5 to Obama >+6 in the span of 24 hours?...time to start ignoring daily numbers, guys

I think this is why they have a three day average.

true, and Obama +2 brings Ras more in line with the results of other polls

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I get the numbers from another person Sam, who I am beginning to start to doubt....

why are you doubting just now?

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at this point, I am more inclined to believe Ras over Gallop, but it is strange that they are moving in opposite directions

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at this point, I am more inclined to believe Ras over Gallop, but it is strange that they are moving in opposite directions

Two big Obama outliers will roll off in the next two days. Gallup and RAS will be back near each other shortly.

but the state data tells me that Obama is ahead nationally by about 3-5 points, that's why I believe RAS over Gallup

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Ya, state polls tend to lag national polls a little.  Never quite figured out why.

i believe you, but that makes no sense

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Right now, Obama is up about 2-3 points, and I'll lean towards saying it's more like 3 points. 

I'm leaning towards a 5-6 point Obama lead.

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Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Thats just really really silly. Of course there is noise within a tracker, but O+10 to M+1, back to O+12 and then down to M+3 is completely illogical. If those are the actual results (and we know ras doesn't release them) then there is something badly badly wrong with his polling. But I don't believe those are his figures and thats just someone somewhere (maybe you?) taking the piss. There will be 1 to 3 point movement from day to day, thats all - backed up by the tracker only moving 1 or 2 points every day.

Who the heck makes you the resident expert on tracking polls?

No-one and nothing. Just like to see a bit of logic being used, thats all.

I mean, if you're telling me that its perfectly normal for wild 15 point swings to occur from one day to the next in tracking polls, and yet the three-day tracker to not move over that time, well I think you're a loon.

there is no reason why results outside the MOE can't be clustered.  In fact, clustering should be expected.

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i didn't think these number were reversed engineered, I thought they came from someone with a subscription into Ras...no?

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I'm not saying your estimate is wrong, I'm just saying that the variation is suspiciously large. I recognize I only have 6 points to deal with, so this set can be a statistical fluke. However, I think the occurrence of three points outside the 95% range, when I expect less than one gives me reason to raise a question.

but this is statistics, clustering is always a possibility.

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This sample was exceptionally good for Obama, even better than the one that replaced it - based on my math Obama +10 or so.

huh?  there was no change to the 6% Obama lead, so doesn't that mean it has to be within +/- 1.5% of the one that dropped off?

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This sample was exceptionally good for Obama, even better than the one that replaced it - based on my math Obama +10 or so.

huh?  there was no change to the 6% Obama lead, so doesn't that mean it has to be within +/- 1.5% of the one that dropped off?

Internally, Obama gained.  I'll post the number later.

I'm basing my educated guess off of the internals of the one-day sample used to test the economy and national security question, both of whose internals allowed me to isolate the sample quite nicely this time.  Somewhere around 53-43 is my number.

all right, but I still don't understand.  seems to me in a 3 day rolling average, if the rounded outcome doesn't change, then the new average has to be < +/- .5% of yesterday's average, which would make the new sample within +/- 1.5% of the sample that dropped off.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Thursday-October 2, 2008
Obama 51%(nc)
McCain 44%(-1)

sounds around right