Ireland General Discussion

[Epaminondas]

Why aren't SF held accountable for their crass incompetence in the North?

They enabled May, and now they're enabling Boris.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why aren't SF held accountable for their crass incompetence in the North?

They enabled May, and now they're enabling Boris.

Well without knowing for sure, likely most of their voters in the "South" approve of abstentionism?

[ObserverIE]

Not a high priority for their voters North or South - I think anyone paying attention views British politics as being beyond redemption by this point.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 29 (-)
FF 25 (-1)
Ind/Oth 15 (+1)
SF 14 (-2)
GP 8 (+4)
Lab 6 (-1)
SP/SWP 1 (-1)
SD 1 (-1)

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 29 (+3)
FF 28 (-1)
SF 16 (-4)
Ind/Oth 11 (-2)
GP 6 (+1)
Lab 5 (+2)
SP/SWP 3 (+2)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-1)
Aontú 0 (-)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 32 (+3)
FF 24 (-4)
Ind/Oth 18 (+2)
SF 11 (-1)
GP 7 (-)
Lab 4 (-2)
SD 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-)
Aontú 1 (+1)
Renua 0 (-1)

RedC habitually overstates FG and understates FF, but this has come in the aftermath of Leo's Brexit Triumph_TM and "Votegate" where a number of FF frontbenchers were found to have pressed electronic voting buttons for other FF TDs who were not in the Dáil chamber at the time.

A large faction of the cabinet are pushing for an early cut-and-run election while Leo's halo is still fresh and before this winter's inevitable health and housing crises spoil the atmosphere.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 30 (-2)
FF 24 (-)
Ind/Oth 17 (-1)
SF 11 (-)
GP 7 (-)
Lab 6 (+2)
SP/SWP 2 (+1)
SD 2 (-)
Aontú 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-)

Four upcoming by-elections on Friday (counting on Saturday) in Dublin Mid West (FG defence), Cork North Central (FF defence) and Dublin Fingal and Wexford (Ind defences).

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times (changes since November):

FG 27 (-)
FF 27 (+2)
SF 20 (+3)
Ind/Oth 11 (-3)
Lab 6 (-)
GP 6 (-)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
SD 1 (-1)

[Epaminondas]

If no coalition appears viable, how long before new elections are called?

Could Higgins do that of his own volition or would it have to be at the behest of the largest party in the Dáil?

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe time to revive this thread?

Latest poll puts SF miles ahead, and Irish Labour on a risible 3%.

[Continential]

Maybe time to revive this thread?

It's a shame that ObserverIE left this forum and now only posts on AAD.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe time to revive this thread?

It's a shame that ObserverIE left this forum and now only posts on AAD.

Agreed.

But contributions from others are welcome!

[YL]

OK, most recent polls by each of the three regular pollsters.  The RedC one dates from 23 October, the  other two from 13 November.

Ireland Thinks: SF 32, FG 24, FF 17, Soc Dem 5, Greens 5, Lab 4, Solidarity/PBP 3, Aontú 3

Behaviour & Attitudes: SF 37, FG 21, FF 20, Green 5, Soc Dem 3, Lab 3, Solidarity/PBP 1, Aontú 1

RedC: SF 33, FG 25, FF 12, Soc Dem 6, Lab 5, Greens 4, Solidarity/PBP 3, Aontú 2

[Frodo]

It isn't just Sweden and Finland that have moved towards joining NATO after decades of neutrality: 

Poll: More Irish want to join NATO in wake of Ukraine invasion
Russian attack tests Ireland’s neutral posture – and casts a spotlight on weak Irish defenses.

[LabourJersey]

It isn't just Sweden and Finland that have moved towards joining NATO after decades of neutrality: 

Poll: More Irish want to join NATO in wake of Ukraine invasion
Russian attack tests Ireland’s neutral posture – and casts a spotlight on weak Irish defenses.

Interesting thought, but I imagine the Irish preference towards neutrality is going to remain pretty strong (especially given how dominant the UK has been in NATO recently)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It isn't just Sweden and Finland that have moved towards joining NATO after decades of neutrality: 

Poll: More Irish want to join NATO in wake of Ukraine invasion
Russian attack tests Ireland’s neutral posture – and casts a spotlight on weak Irish defenses.

Interesting thought, but I imagine the Irish preference towards neutrality is going to remain pretty strong (especially given how dominant the UK has been in NATO recently)

Russia's actions have doubtless considerably increased the number of Irish supportive of NATO membership. But I'm not so certain the numbers will stay there. Out of sight, out of mind - Russia's in sight, it's now in mind.

[Mike88]

Leo Varadkar has been elected as the new Taoiseach, following the 2020 FG-FF agreement. Micheál Martin is now the Tánaiste.

https://twitter.com/PresidentIRL/status/1604116515564945408

[President Johnson]

Leo Varadkar has been elected as the new Taoiseach, following the 2020 FG-FF agreement. Micheál Martin is now the Tánaiste.

https://twitter.com/PresidentIRL/status/1604116515564945408

Now both the United Kingdom and Ireland have a prime minister of Indian descent. It's actually three in all of Europe, I think Antonio Costa of Portugal also has some Indian anchestors.

[Mike88]

Now both the United Kingdom and Ireland have a prime minister of Indian descent. It's actually three in all of Europe, I think Antonio Costa of Portugal also has some Indian anchestors.

Yes, Costa's grandfather was from India, Goa to be precise.

[ObserverIE]

Leo Varadkar has been elected as the new Taoiseach, following the 2020 FG-FF agreement. Micheál Martin is now the Tánaiste.

https://twitter.com/PresidentIRL/status/1604116515564945408

This is why I never bothered updating my signature image.

[Epaminondas]

Joe Kennedy III will be named Special Envoy to Northern Ireland.

Biden handing JK a political lifeline after his Senate run went up in smoke.

What are the odds he can sway Westminster to bring the DUP to heel and restart Stormont?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Leo Varadkar has been elected as the new Taoiseach, following the 2020 FG-FF agreement. Micheál Martin is now the Tánaiste.

https://twitter.com/PresidentIRL/status/1604116515564945408

How tall is Higgins? He looks like a hobbit.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Leo Varadkar has been elected as the new Taoiseach, following the 2020 FG-FF agreement. Micheál Martin is now the Tánaiste.

https://twitter.com/PresidentIRL/status/1604116515564945408

How tall is Higgins? He looks like a hobbit.

5’4 according to Google.

[LabourJersey]

Joe Kennedy III will be named Special Envoy to Northern Ireland.

Biden handing JK a political lifeline after his Senate run went up in smoke.

What are the odds he can sway Westminster to bring the DUP to heel and restart Stormont?

Minimal, probably. I also don't see this as particularly helpful to Kennedy's political career unless he's present for some major NI agreement (or even a border poll) and even then I don't see that helping him much

[CumbrianLefty]

Joe Kennedy III will be named Special Envoy to Northern Ireland.

Biden handing JK a political lifeline after his Senate run went up in smoke.

What are the odds he can sway Westminster to bring the DUP to heel and restart Stormont?

Not great.