Ireland General Discussion

[Хahar 🤔]

It's hard to imagine Fine Gael not leading the next government.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It would be a FG-Labour minority on those figures. The thing to remember is that we have STV and FG and Lab would transfer to each other strongly while FF and SF don't and won't (and the others are a very mixed bag). So those numbers in a general election would mean FG+Lab would have quite a few more seats than FF+SF. A deal with a gaggle of independents could be done in such circumstances. Although such a government would hardly be stable.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Rumours are flying about that there is soon to be an announcement of a new centre-left party with 3 TDs and 1 Senators forming it.

Now, at present in the Dáil, there are 3 ex-Labour TDs sitting as independent and 1 ex-Labour Senator sitting as independent, who has been openly declaring he is interested in forming a new party "to stop Sinn Fein". Now I don't want you to jump to conclusions....

(oh ftr, this party is certain to be a flop)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Okay scratch that the party is different to what I expected with only one of the four aforementioned forming it

New party to be headed by Murphy, Donnelly and Shortall

The Three TDs:
Catherine Murphy, Independent TD for Kildare North former Democratic Left recently got noticed for raising a fuss in the Dáil over the government's relationship with a certain Maltese tax exile and billionaire and dealings concerning the former Anglo-Irish Bank, the accursed body that won't stay buried of Irish politics.
Stephen Donnelly, Independent TD for Wicklow wonk and policy orientated figure, is seen a bit more to the right on economics than the other members of the party but perceived as a strong champion of Government reform and a liberal.
Roisin Shortall, Ex-Labour now Independent TD for Dublin North West resigned from the Labour party over its perceived lack of opposition to austerity, as that description suggests She was one of the more left Labour members. Likes talking about the need for a "new politics" a lot.

There are also two not one Senators considering joining - Katherine Zappone and Jillian Van Turnhout.  Both were nominated to the Seanad by the Taoiseach (each Taoiseach nominates 11 members to the Seanad, this is usually a mix of party hacks and the great and the good, Zappone and Van Turnhout are the latter). Zappone is a theologian and LGBT activist who was very prominent during the referendum and made it very, very obvious she was planning to run for the Dail. I know nothing about Van Turnhout - wikipedia says she was once commissioner of the Irish Girl Guides and has extensive experience working in EU institutions.

In short this will be a Liberal party probably full of talk about the need for REFORM and will try to give themselves something of the palest pink platform. My cynical reaction about hearing the news was "At last, a party dedicated to the most pressing issue of Ireland today: Seanad Reform". I suspect my cynicism will not be misplaced.

[ObserverIE]

Roisin Shortall, Ex-Labour now Independent TD for Dublin North West resigned from the Labour party over its perceived lack of opposition to austerity, as that description suggests She was one of the more left Labour members. Likes talking about the need for a "new politics" a lot.

More specifically, she was a junior minister in the Department of Health responsible, among other things, for the roll-out of a network of Primary Care Centres with the ranking of where the centres should be located being determined by a set of demographic criteria. She then found that her senior minister, James Reilly, had modified the list to ensure that towns in his own constituency, in the constituency of another government minister (the delightful Phil Hogan) and in the constituency of a vulnerable FG backbencher were placed ahead of more deserving locations. She protested but got nowhere and found her own party leadership backing Reilly (who they viewed as an ally on abortion) over their own minister. She then resigned as a minister and from the Labour Party.

(Personally, the Shortall resignation was my "ah, fyck that" moment with Labour.)

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She was chair of the Children's Rights Alliance before being appointed to the Seanad. Her husband was chairperson of the FG organisation in Dublin South/Rathdown and she was perceived in 2011 as being a FG appointee (with Zappone being a Labour appointment) but being from the rump (stump?) Garret FitzGerald/"social democratic" wing of the party rather than its dominant economic right.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Okay Van Turnhout has now denied involved in this new party.

[ObserverIE]

In short this will be a Liberal party probably full of talk about the need for REFORM and will try to give themselves something of the palest pink platform. My cynical reaction about hearing the news was "At last, a party dedicated to the most pressing issue of Ireland today: Seanad Reform". I suspect my cynicism will not be misplaced.

To be fair, given the presence of Shortall and Murphy, I'd expect it to be economically to the left of the "Liberal party... with the palest pink platform" which is currently acting as FG's doormat in government and pretending to be somehow social democratic.

Van Turnhout struck me as being too much genepool FG to be involved in a left-of-Labour vehicle. I hope they'll have the sense not to touch Averil with a bargepole.

[ObserverIE]

First post-[REDACTED] poll, Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

Ind/Oth 25 (-)
FG 24 (-3)
FF 21 (+4)
SF 19 (-1)
Lab 9 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
Renua 1 (-)

[Oakvale]

HISTORIC COMEBACK FOR FF

[ObserverIE]

HISTORIC COMEBACK FOR FF

It's All About Averil.

[Oakvale]

Typically expert analysis from P.ie incidentally -

[ObserverIE]

Someone *cough* pointed out that Renua was on 1% in the internals.

Lucinda shot herself in the foot when she brought Hobbs into the frame. Without him she could have plausibly presented herself - in the era of REDACTED - as representing a more principled version of FG.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 28 (-)
Ind/Oth 24 (+6)
FF 20 (+1)
SF 18 (-3)
Lab 7 (-3)
GP 2 (-1)
Renua 1 (-)

Millward Brown/IMS for the Sunday Independent:

FG 29 (+4)
FF 23 (+4)
SF 21 (-3)
Ind/Oth 16 (-1)
Lab 6 (-2)
SP 2 (-)
GP 1 (-2)
Renua 1 (-1)
SWP 1 (+1)

Elsewhere, the Sunday Times reports that [REDACTED] tried to prevent one of his client newspapers (which was not at that time under his total control but which has since been assimilated) publishing an embarrassing story about a minister of his client political party. The said minister was responsible for the roll-out of water meters, a lucrative contract for the installation of which was given to a company controlled by [REDACTED] and which had earlier been purchased at a knock-down price by [REDACTED] from Zombie Anglo at a loss of about €100 million to the taxpayer.

Happy days.

https://twitter.com/FrankSunTimes/status/614903998961831936

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol, I notice Haughey Jr. lost the selection battle for new seat Dublin bay North.

[ObserverIE]

Lol, I notice Haughey Jr. lost the selection battle for new seat Dublin bay North.

Yes, to a long-standing female councillor (and either of them would have been selected ahead of Adorable Averil on the popular vote, which is why she wanted her selection as the only candidate imposed on the local organisation and stormed off when HQ wouldn't oblige).

Haughey Jr. will still probably be added as a second candidate on an inland/coastal split (the lower-middle/working class areas inland are where he'll poll well). FG have also fycked up their selection there, being obliged to run three candidates so as to stop the Minister for Jobs being the victim of an accidental deselection.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Thinking about Dublin Bay North next time around makes me want to invest in popcorn shares.

[ObserverIE]

Announced retirements by government TDs:

Pat Rabbitte (Lab - Dublin South West), because isn't that what you do when you don't want to face an angry electorate again?
Michael Conaghan (Lab - Dublin South Central), first-timer, over 70, doomed.
Jack Wall (Lab - Kildare South), makes things more difficult for Labour in one of their (relatively) better chances of a hold.
Frank Feighan (FG - Roscommon-South Leitrim), bowing to the inevitable.
Liam Twomey (FG - Wexford).

In other news, Donnelly, Shortall and Murphy are to announce a new political venture on Wednesday. socialdemocrats.ie has been registered by someone living in Greystones (Donnelly's electoral base) which may mean something or nothing.

Update: And they're live.

With an interesting social media strategy.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Dunno if anyone noticed, but Ireland just passed one of the most progressive trans rules worldwide into law. Who would have thought in 2011 that the Kenny government would be an lgbt rights bonanza?

[ObserverIE]

Dunno if anyone noticed, but Ireland just passed one of the most progressive trans rules worldwide into law. Who would have thought in 2011 that the Kenny government would be an lgbt rights bonanza?

If you want me to be very cynical here, I would point out that FG are happy to oblige the SJW wing of Labour with stuff like this as long as Labour acquiesce in right-wing economic policies such as tax cuts skewed towards FG's middle and upper-middle class supporters (as well as having Labour take the hit for service charges and cuts to benefits for working lone parents). It's one of the reasons why Labour are absolutely screwed at the next election.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh yes, that is the downside. Next time some idiot chirps they're 'fiscal conservative, but socially liberal' I'll tell them to go to Ireland or something.

[ObserverIE]

Oh yes, that is the downside. Next time some idiot chirps they're 'fiscal conservative, but socially liberal' I'll tell them to go to Ireland or something.

It's not significantly different to the relationship between the Osborne wing of Toryism and the more starry-eyed Orange Bookers before last May.

Median earnings may be static or slightly declining, large swathes of the country beyond London and the South-EastDublin and its hinterland may be being left to rot, one in seven twentysomethings may have left over the last seven years, there may be increasing numbers of beggars and junkies on the streets as society polarises geographically and socially but, hey, you can change your official gender just by means of a declaration.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Dude, you don't have to convince me that the coalition sucks. I think the oddest thing is why Labour decided to jettison its economic left so readily. Wasn't that the whole point of the Democratic Left?

[ObserverIE]

Dude, you don't have to convince me that the coalition sucks. I think the oddest thing is why Labour decided to jettison its economic left so readily. Wasn't that the whole point of the Democratic Left?

[snark]Actually, the point of Democratic Left was to get from Brezhnev to Blair along the shortest route possible.[/snark].

Labour, then under the leadership of ex-Sticky Pat Rabbitte, spent the 2007 election trying to undercut FF and FG on income tax rates. Generally, DL then => uber-Blairite now. And even "old" Labour always had a large middle-class membership who were more interested in secularism than socialism.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dude, you don't have to convince me that the coalition sucks. I think the oddest thing is why Labour decided to jettison its economic left so readily. Wasn't that the whole point of the Democratic Left?

Mostly Democratic Left just stood for cultural cringe. Think of that as being like repentant ex-Commies but with an added touch of unintentional clownishness.

[ObserverIE]

Dude, you don't have to convince me that the coalition sucks. I think the oddest thing is why Labour decided to jettison its economic left so readily. Wasn't that the whole point of the Democratic Left?

Mostly Democratic Left just stood for cultural cringe. Think of that as being like repentant ex-Commies but with an added touch of unintentional clownishness.

It's not even that they were repentant. The whole period prior to 1992 - the Official IRA, the "solidarity" with the "People's Democracies", the trips to Pyongyang - just vanished down the memory hole as if they had never existed, helped in no small part because of the party having a lot of journalistic sympathisers who could be relied upon not to ask awkward questions.