Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

"The Russian press has turned on US House Speaker Mike Johnson with insults such as “total scatterbrain”, “brainwashed” & “the look of a traitor.”  Which shows that House approval of the $61bn aid package for Ukraine has struck a raw nerve in Moscow. #ReadingRussia"

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1782661449401463080

[Virginiá]

I think far eastern Ukraine they've silently written off for most of a decade. Crimea, being removed from the Sea of Azov, and some of the Black Sea coastline they've lost is more valuable, but they still have Odessa at least.

Even liberating Southern Ukraine west of Berdyansk would be a major improvement. This makes it marginally more difficult for Russia to harass Ukrainian maritime trade and would give Ukraine some influence in the Sea of Azov. It also allows Ukraine to complicate Russia's long-term presence in Crimea. It's a lever of pressure they desperately need going into the future. I'm not sure they can achieve this anymore, but that should probably be their primary goal for the rest of the war (unless something happens that makes full liberation a reality).

[Virginiá]

https://x.com/archer83able/status/1782797318799970346?s=46&t=ZHeS7rMUpmBPthnMp_vXgQ
👀

I imagine we're going to see a smorgasbord of aid packages over the next couple months, particularly with USAI funds.

[Storr]

Ukraine's corruption absolutely does affect its economy .

That corruption is directly tied to Russia. Like it doesn’t take too much effort to put together that Ukraine having corrupt oligarchs might be related to bordering the biggest corrupt oligarchy country in the world

The corrupt oligarchs actually are far more mixed than you think. Poroshenko is a fairly corrupt oligarch but you can't deny his anti Russian bonafides.  Joining a fairly strong centralized state such as Russia under Putin's rule means that you accept his rule which is something corrupt oligarchs don't want. Putin actually does work with Oligarchs but he also somewhat brought them under control in the early aughts.

It’s still a culture that Russia directly influences onto Ukraine even if you can pick out singular examples, and integrating into the EU would give Ukraine better resources to combat it.

Speaking of corruption: "Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested on suspicion of receiving a bribe."

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1782855305459585119

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1782950029663076642?s=12
https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/1782949611293786491?s=12

[Hindsight was 2020]

Love Ukraine celebrating aid passing with a bang
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1782966462166040771
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1782975339393659240
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1782966103435616721

[Woody]

"The Russian Federation is not changing its approach to creating a “sanitary zone” in Ukraine. – Peskov."

[CumbrianLefty]

What a phrase that is - "sanitary zone".

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that Russians are moving into Krasnogorovka

[Hindsight was 2020]

US aid package is in

[Antonio the Sixth]

US aid package is in

Still no more ATACMS? That's disappointing.

[Virginiá]

we're so back

[Virginiá]

Still no more ATACMS? That's disappointing.

Probably included in the "additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)" line. These announcements have gotten more opaque over time. They didn't specifically list the M39 cluster bomb ATACMS variant they sent to Ukraine in the past either, iirc.

[Hindsight was 2020]

US aid package is in

Still no more ATACMS? That's disappointing.

As Virginia said, Atacms are normally classified under ammo for HIMARS line

[jaichind]

The parts of Krasnogorovka that the Russians have captured, as per pro-Russian sources, seem to be the high ground and fairly ominous for the Ukrainian forces trying to hold the rest of the town

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, excellent news.

[emailking]

US secretly sent long-range missiles to Ukraine after months of resistance

The US delivered long-range missiles to Ukraine earlier this month that the Biden administration had previously refused to send following a directive from President Joe Biden, the Pentagon said Wednesday.

Biden secretly approved the transfer of the long-range ATACMS missiles in February for use inside Ukrainian territory. The ATACMS missiles were then quietly included in the $300 million aid package announced on March 12 and ultimately delivered to Ukraine earlier this month, according to Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Garron Garn.

“It was not announced that we are providing Ukraine with this new capability at the time in order to maintain operational security for Ukraine at their request,” Garn said, deferring questions about their use to Ukraine’s military.

The Biden administration had resisted sending the long-range missiles in part because of readiness concerns. The powerful missiles require time and complex components to produce. Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the ATACMS missiles, is in full-rate production and produces approximately 500 missiles per year, a spokesman for the company said in September.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics/us-secretly-sent-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine/index.html

[Storr]

"The 100th Brigade has been in the Kreminna - Bilohorivka area for some time now. It's also a relatively light formation, having been converted from TDF to mechanized a while ago.

Transferring the 100th to Ocheretyne underlines how difficult the situation is."

https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1783200453078974855

[Storr]

US secretly sent long-range missiles to Ukraine after months of resistance

The US delivered long-range missiles to Ukraine earlier this month that the Biden administration had previously refused to send following a directive from President Joe Biden, the Pentagon said Wednesday.

Biden secretly approved the transfer of the long-range ATACMS missiles in February for use inside Ukrainian territory. The ATACMS missiles were then quietly included in the $300 million aid package announced on March 12 and ultimately delivered to Ukraine earlier this month, according to Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Garron Garn.

“It was not announced that we are providing Ukraine with this new capability at the time in order to maintain operational security for Ukraine at their request,” Garn said, deferring questions about their use to Ukraine’s military.

The Biden administration had resisted sending the long-range missiles in part because of readiness concerns. The powerful missiles require time and complex components to produce. Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the ATACMS missiles, is in full-rate production and produces approximately 500 missiles per year, a spokesman for the company said in September.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics/us-secretly-sent-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine/index.html

ATACMS has been used (at least) twice so far by Ukraine:

"Overnight Tuesday, Ukraine used the longer-range missiles to strike Russian troops in the port city of Berdiansk on the Sea of Azov, the senior U.S. official said...Last Wednesday, social media accounts in Ukraine reported large fires and explosions at a military airfield in Dzhankoi, Crimea, which the senior administration official said was also a long-range ATACMS target.
@EricSchmittNYT

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/24/us/us-ukraine-russia-missiles.html"
 
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783183524121510190

[Hindsight was 2020]

"The 100th Brigade has been in the Kreminna - Bilohorivka area for some time now. It's also a relatively light formation, having been converted from TDF to mechanized a while ago.

Transferring the 100th to Ocheretyne underlines how difficult the situation is."

https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1783200453078974855

Chance andjey is with this group 😕

[jaichind]

It seems Russia can also play this "seisure of assets" game

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems Russia can also play this "seisure of assets" game

Russia should only escalate, if it does, with care.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that the Russians are expanding their breech into  Ocheretino by moving into Soloviovo

[Woody]

Pro-Russian sources say that the Russians are expanding their breech into  Ocheretino by moving into Soloviovo

How did it fall so quickly? Even I didn't expect this.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that the Russians are expanding their breech into  Ocheretino by moving into Soloviovo

How did it fall so quickly? Even I didn't expect this.

There are rumors that some of the Russian units here are former Wagner units who have experience and expertise in storming positions.