Important question: Are there any further opportunities for Obama to veto a funding bill and force a government shutdown prior to the election? This might be the best chance to get the senate to cave on a fairly liberal nominee. A few weeks of D+10-15 generic ballot polls like we saw during the last shutdown would give Obama state senate R's a lot of second thoughts.
If Obama shuts down the government by vetoing funding bills to force the Senate to approve his nominee, those aren't the poll results you'll be seeing.