Electoral College problems for Republicans

[IceSpear]

What percentage of the white vote is Hillary's floor?

I'd guess it's pretty low. The thing to keep in mind is that Obama got 39% under favorable circumstances (Incumbent running for reelection during a recovering economy, credited for a strong response to Hurricane Sandy.)

Obama's 43 percent in 2008 was the Democrat's third-best showing with the group in the last twelve elections (Carter got 48 percent in 1976 while Clinton got 44 percent in 1996.)

34 percent seems like a plausible floor for HRC.

That sounds like revisionist history to me. Back during 2012, everyone was talking about how the sluggish economy was hurting Obama's chances.

[IceSpear]

To win in 2016 the GOP needs a candidate that can get Romney numbers with whites and Bush 04 numbers with non-whites. Good luck with that.

Ding ding. The GOP's demographic problem in a nutshell. The fact that they have to try to hold Hillary Clinton, who dominated among working class whites in the 2008 primary, to a lower share of the white vote than John f'ing Kerry perfectly sums up the problems the GOP will have in 2016.

Not that it can't be done, but the "muh Democratic fatigue" sweeping the GOP into the White House like many blue avatars seem to think will happen won't be quite so easy.