OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[BuckeyeNut]

You definitely should not feel that way.

Who's Kasich's candidate?

He has publicly backed Taylor, his LG, in the run up to the race, I dont believe hes formally endorsed, the majority of Kasich's "team" appears to be backing Mike DeWine.

Worth noting that happened after Taylor betrayed Team Kasich when she voted for the new, Trump-approved OH GOP chair, Jane Timken, over long-time Kasich ally, Matt Borges.

In fairness dewines campaign manager is a long time Kasich operative and he was hired prior to that

It's funny, though, given Kasich ran DeWine's people out of OH GOP leadership back in 2010.

Different Dewine. Kevin DeWine was the party chair in 2010, in 2012 Kasich had him ousted, but he wasn't a Mike Dewine loyalist

He's Mike DeWine's second cousin.

Yes... they were hardly politically connected.

You're kidding, right?

[BuckeyeNut]

Interesting profile of new OH GOP chairwoman, Jane Timken.

[BuckeyeNut]

Things have been strangely quiet for the past couple of weeks. I went to an event a while back where both Pillich and Schiavoni spoke. Second time seeing Schiavoni. He's definitely the better speaker, but Pillich is fine. They were both able to get the crowd going. Spoke to some muckety-mucks and they gave Kucinich 80:20 odds on getting in, which is disturbing. Whaley is still quiet, but she certainly seems to be building toward an announcement. Why she's waiting, I don't know. Meanwhile, Jerry Springer is headlining a Democratic dinner in Fremont next week.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jon Husted, who hasn't announced he's running for governor, received an endorsement from the Ohio University College Republicans.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/conservative_group_throws_its.html

If it was the College Republicans of Ohio, that might mean something. But there are probably all of 10  college Republicans at OU. The only school they probably do worse at is Oberlin.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jon Husted, who hasn't announced he's running for governor, received an endorsement from the Ohio University College Republicans.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/conservative_group_throws_its.html

If it was the College Republicans of Ohio, that might mean something. But there are probably all of 10  college Republicans at OU. The only school they probably do worse at is Oberlin.

It appears from their Facebook to be a fairly large and active chapter.

Sure. Hyperbole aside, Athens is not a place to look to for predicting Republican success.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jon Husted, who hasn't announced he's running for governor, received an endorsement from the Ohio University College Republicans.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/conservative_group_throws_its.html

If it was the College Republicans of Ohio, that might mean something. But there are probably all of 10  college Republicans at OU. The only school they probably do worse at is Oberlin.

It appears from their Facebook to be a fairly large and active chapter.

Sure. Hyperbole aside, Athens is not a place to look to for predicting Republican success.

Rep. Edwards says hi.

That was a fluke. The Ohio House Democratic Caucus really screwed up interfering in the primary on behalf of Sarah Grace and asking Eddie Smith to step down. Smith would have most likely won.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jon Husted, who hasn't announced he's running for governor, received an endorsement from the Ohio University College Republicans.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/conservative_group_throws_its.html

If it was the College Republicans of Ohio, that might mean something. But there are probably all of 10  college Republicans at OU. The only school they probably do worse at is Oberlin.

It appears from their Facebook to be a fairly large and active chapter.

Sure. Hyperbole aside, Athens is not a place to look to for predicting Republican success.

Rep. Edwards says hi.

That was a fluke. The Ohio House Democratic Caucus really screwed up interfering in the primary on behalf of Sarah Grace and asking Eddie Smith to step down. Smith would have most likely won.

I was teasing a bit, fluke? Not with his big margin, she also spent a bit more. Athens is in general a more liberal area, but to call it a flukes a bit premature. They did vote for Jimmy Stewart too in the mid 2000s.

Grace was a terrible speaker and her margins inside the Athens County part of the district were sub-par. Between heavy right wing shifts in most of Appalachia, her ineptitude, and anti-establishmentarianism, maybe Edwards would have won regardless, but it's still not a county to extrapolate Republican headwinds from. The state legislative districts in Ohio are almost as bad as they are at the Congressional level, but if there's a seat to take back in '18, it's the 94th.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jon Husted, who hasn't announced he's running for governor, received an endorsement from the Ohio University College Republicans.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2017/04/conservative_group_throws_its.html

If it was the College Republicans of Ohio, that might mean something. But there are probably all of 10  college Republicans at OU. The only school they probably do worse at is Oberlin.

It appears from their Facebook to be a fairly large and active chapter.

Sure. Hyperbole aside, Athens is not a place to look to for predicting Republican success.

Rep. Edwards says hi.

That was a fluke. The Ohio House Democratic Caucus really screwed up interfering in the primary on behalf of Sarah Grace and asking Eddie Smith to step down. Smith would have most likely won.

I was teasing a bit, fluke? Not with his big margin, she also spent a bit more. Athens is in general a more liberal area, but to call it a flukes a bit premature. They did vote for Jimmy Stewart too in the mid 2000s.

Grace was a terrible speaker and her margins inside the Athens County part of the district were sub-par. Between heavy right wing shifts in most of Appalachia, her ineptitude, and anti-establishmentarianism, maybe Edwards would have won regardless, but it's still not a county to extrapolate Republican headwinds from. The state legislative districts in Ohio are almost as bad as they are at the Congressional level, but if there's a seat to take back in '18, it's the 94th.

I actually don't agree with you about the state districts being heavily gerrymandered, they are some but not to the level everyone likes to blame them for. Quite a bit of it is bad campaigning and bad candidates (3rd district, 43rd district, 89th, and 37th come to the top of my head where the democrats have run bad candidates in winnable districts, and that's without really looking)

Edwards being a local football star helped as well.

It certainly did.

Sure, there have been recruiting flubs, but similarly, I don't think you're giving the gerrymander enough credit. I'm trying to find the report, but the Dayton Daily News did a piece back in 2011 or so about the state legislative districts and found a startling lack of competition. I believe it was less than ~30 seats in the state house and less than 10 in the Senate.

I will keep looking for that piece.

[BuckeyeNut]

2016 was obviously a sh**t year for Democrats around the nation. I don't think Pepper's been around enough to really deserve blame. Though we'll see how '18 goes.

Not the Dayton piece, but there were roughly 20 competitive elections last year, according to the Dispatch. Certainly, we need more Lou Gentiles.

Pepper wasn't the best candidate from 2014 (dark horse vote for Carney, not Pillich), but the wasn't the worst by any means. You're not wrong about him being on the ticket to help raise money, but that doesn't mean down ticket office holders are bad candidates. Hamilton County was purple when Pepper got on the Board of Commissioners.

[BuckeyeNut]

Worse attempts, maybe. But worse recruit?

1: 2014 was a worse year than 2010, especially in Ohio.
2: David Yost was an easier man to beat than Mike DeWine.

[BuckeyeNut]

2016 was obviously a sh**t year for Democrats around the nation. I don't think Pepper's been around enough to really deserve blame. Though we'll see how '18 goes.

Not the Dayton piece, but there were roughly 20 competitive elections last year, according to the Dispatch. Certainly, we need more Lou Gentiles.

Pepper wasn't the best candidate from 2014 (dark horse vote for Carney, not Pillich), but the wasn't the worst by any means. You're not wrong about him being on the ticket to help raise money, but that doesn't mean down ticket office holders are bad candidates. Hamilton County was purple when Pepper got on the Board of Commissioners.

By my count there's been 4 statewide elected officials in 40 years who ran from a local office state wide and won. In general they tend to be bad choices.

Qualify "local" office? Husted was in the state legislature and when Mary Taylor was elected Auditor, she was also a state representative. Yost was a County Prosecutor. Cordray was County Treasurer. Jennette B. Bradley launched from Columbus City Council. And Joe Deters was also a County Prosecutor. That's at least 4 in the last decade and a half. That can't be it.

[BuckeyeNut]

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/04/14/jim-renacci-fires-campaign-manager-after-less-than-a-month/100467516/

The link doesn't work

Works for me... You have Adblock on?

I do, and it still worked... Pretty surprised he hired the guy behind Greitens win.

[BuckeyeNut]

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/04/14/jim-renacci-fires-campaign-manager-after-less-than-a-month/100467516/

The link doesn't work

Works for me... You have Adblock on?

I do, and it still worked... Pretty surprised he hired the guy behind Greitens win.

and fired him

Gosh, I'm on auto-pilot today. That's what I meant.

[BuckeyeNut]

Butler County area State Rep. Candice Keller compared Planned Parenthood to the Holocaust last night on her Facebook and backlash is building fast.

[BuckeyeNut]

Politico feature on Cordray & the race

Another benefit to Cordrey running would be that at least some folks like Schiavoni, Sutton, Pillich, etc would probably drop down to row offices (although the Treasurer nomination is probably Leland's *if* he wants it). 

On a different note, the ODP needs to find a new a AG candidate.  Much as I hate to admit it, I was wrong about Diettelbach.  He got off to a very promising start extremely early, but he seems to have already fizzled out.  However, Dave Yost is a decidedly "meh" Republican recruit and as a result, OH AG remains a great pickup opportunity if we can recruit a solid candidate.

What makes you say this? If you ask him if he's in, he'll tell you, but it technically isn't official yet.

Speaking of the Governor's race, though: If one googles "Nan Whaley" the first result to come up is an ad from her political committee that encourages visitors to respond to a survey that Whaley is needed in state level politics and should run for governor. When asked about the ad, Whaley said a decision was coming "soon."

[BuckeyeNut]

Politico feature on Cordray & the race

Another benefit to Cordrey running would be that at least some folks like Schiavoni, Sutton, Pillich, etc would probably drop down to row offices (although the Treasurer nomination is probably Leland's *if* he wants it). 

On a different note, the ODP needs to find a new a AG candidate.  Much as I hate to admit it, I was wrong about Diettelbach.  He got off to a very promising start extremely early, but he seems to have already fizzled out.  However, Dave Yost is a decidedly "meh" Republican recruit and as a result, OH AG remains a great pickup opportunity if we can recruit a solid candidate.

What makes you say this? If you ask him if he's in, he'll tell you, but it technically isn't official yet.

Speaking of the Governor's race, though: If one googles "Nan Whaley" the first result to come up is an ad from her political committee that encourages visitors to respond to a survey that Whaley is needed in state level politics and should run for governor. When asked about the ad, Whaley said a decision was coming "soon."

Do you mean Diettelbach or Cordrey?

Dettelbach.

[BuckeyeNut]

Politico feature on Cordray & the race

I think he should go for it. At the end of the day, Trump is going to get to name his successor at the CFPB regardless. If he misses the governor race, he'll have to wait until 2022 to have another shot at that or a Senate seat, and circumstances by then might even preclude that.

Agreed. It's time for Cordray to accept his destiny and become the governor of Ohio and make his way to the White House in 2024.

Is Mr. Cordray charismatic enough to win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? Is he too white? Maybe. A Cordray-Ossoff ticket in 2024 would be good or a Warren-Cordray ticket, but it would be too "intellectual" for the same white working class voters Cordray is trying to court as Ohio governor in 2018.

Charisma comes in different forms and can be learned to a certisn extent.

Too white? Most Democratic leaders are white and white people make up a majority of Democrats and people who lean Democrat. (Source.)

No one with half a brain is worried about an Ohio Democrat being white.

ION: State Rep. Wes Retherford, who was found passed out drunk with a gun in a McDonald's parking lot, will not be facing felony charges. If he had, he would have been automatically evicted from office, and the OH GOP would have gotten to choose his successor.

Between Retherford and Keller, Butler County GOP needs to get it's sh**t together.

[BuckeyeNut]

Schiavoni has resigned as Senate Minority Leader to more actively pursue campaigning.

[BuckeyeNut]

Hearing a rumor former Congressman Zack Space is considering running for Auditor.

[BuckeyeNut]

Politico feature on Cordray & the race

Another benefit to Cordrey running would be that at least some folks like Schiavoni, Sutton, Pillich, etc would probably drop down to row offices (although the Treasurer nomination is probably Leland's *if* he wants it). 

On a different note, the ODP needs to find a new a AG candidate.  Much as I hate to admit it, I was wrong about Diettelbach.  He got off to a very promising start extremely early, but he seems to have already fizzled out.  However, Dave Yost is a decidedly "meh" Republican recruit and as a result, OH AG remains a great pickup opportunity if we can recruit a solid candidate.

Do I get to say I told you so?

I'd give it two more months, but if the situation remains unchanged then yeah, I suppose you do.  Fair is fair, after all  

I still think AG is a prime Democratic pickup opportunity if we can recruit a solid candidate.  Yost is a paper tiger at best.

Dettelbach still isn't officially in yet. And his Q1 numbers were pretty great for 2 months of fundraising and not actually being in. I wouldn't count him out until he's officially in.

ION: Husted really ramping up staff.

[BuckeyeNut]

State Rep. Heather Bischoff is resigning as she and her husband plan a move to California. A bit surprising, as she was viewed as something of an up-and-comer who could run for the State Senate in '18. The House Democratic Caucus will be picking a replacement soon.

Also, to loop back to gerrymandering, Bischoff won the closest State House race of 2016 with a six-point win.

[BuckeyeNut]

Renacci is reporting over $2 mil. raised since he launched his campaign.

In Local News: Cincinnati and Columbus are both having municipal primaries today. Two WFP candidates running for Council are expected to get crushed in Columbus, while there's a very ugly Mayoral election building up in Cincinnati.

[BuckeyeNut]

Renacci is reporting over $2 mil. raised since he launched his campaign.

In Local News: Cincinnati and Columbus are both having municipal primaries today. Two WFP candidates running for Council are expected to get crushed in Columbus, while there's a very ugly Mayoral election building up in Cincinnati.

2 million in Pledges, not actual money

I'd take him at his word. As it mentions in the article, he doesn't have to release any fundraising reports until January of '18.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mmmm. Perhaps. I think the Cincinnati Mayoral primary is the most interesting thing happening this month by a long shot. Unless Whaley/Cordray/Kucinich do pull the trigger. But I'm doubtful.

[BuckeyeNut]

I was hoping she'd decide against it. Oh well. This is why all elections need run-offs. It'd be a real shame for whoever wins the primary to squeak by with 35% of the vote.

ION: Things looking bad for Cranley. Richardson and Simpson should have split the black vote putting Cranley on top but with 96% of the vote in, Simpson's beating Clark 45% to 34%. Richarson's at 20%.