Canadian Election 2019

[lilTommy]

What's the likelihood of either Wilson-Raybould or Philpotts winning as an independent? I guess that might be relevant to the electoral calculus if Lib + NDP is about the same as Con.

I think, my observation, is that Wilson-Raybould has a better chance of winning then Philpott does.

[lilTommy]

What's the likelihood of either Wilson-Raybould or Philpotts winning as an independent? I guess that might be relevant to the electoral calculus if Lib + NDP is about the same as Con.

I think, my observation, is that Wilson-Raybould has a better chance of winning then Philpott does.

Why are CON and NDP contesting those seats.  Should they not step aside to back these two to highlight their concern and anger over the Lavalin affair ?  Especially when Wilson-Raybould seat it seems neither CON nor NDP has much of a chance anyway.

That generally doesn't happen in Canada; parties generally still want their names on the ballot for party loyalists, polling, etc. Their also use to be a deposit issue up until 2017, if you got under a certain % of the vote you lost your deposit.
By-elections we see smaller parties, like the Greens in particular, that used to bow out (most recently in Burnaby South)
Their has been some un-official campaigning by May for Wilson-Raybould and I wouldn't be surprised if many NDP/Green and even LPC voters were happy if she won. Independents though, don't last very long in Canadian Parliaments from what I remember

[lilTommy]

First "Progressive" candidate to step aside to endorse another. The ABCs have begun.
Greens endorsing the NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/election-2019/edmonton-strathcona-green-party-candidate-quits-endorses-ndp

[lilTommy]

So, I have not been following this election that much beyond the newspapers. This is especially shocking considering how much effort I poured into keeping on top of Quebec and Ontario's elections. Anyway, my question to all the Canadians is: how likely is govt gridlock post-election similar to what happened in Spain? If polls and history is to be trusted, the Libs will more likely than not be positioned to form the next govt, but not without some NDP/Bloc cooperation. In such a situation, Trudeau will no doubt try to stand firm to the history of Canadian minority govts, but Singh seems to want more from the Liberal government than just "not the Tories." So what's the chance we end up with a prolonged coalition vs minority standoff?

I think it depends on which party the LPC can work with, in terms of enough seats to form a "working" majority:
- NDP win more then the BQ; If the Liberals can get by on a minority with the NDP, they may prefer this option. But the NDP has some hard asks that the LPC might not be really excited about, one being MMP PR and the NDPs opposition to TMX. More history here with the two working together, as the NDP says it will not support the CPC which is also historically true.
- BQ wins more seats then the NDP; BQ says they will work with anyone if it works for Quebec, but the BQ always is a tough sell as a "partner" due to their whole raison d'etre being breaking up the country. Having said that, the BQ also is oppose to TMX.

- The LPC needs more then one partner; I don't think we have seen this yet, came close in 2006 (I think) when the three LPC-NDP-BQ started to work to form a minority. The LPC does not want this especially since both the NDP/BQ oppose TMX and this could kill it (yay!)
- long shot - grand coalition. You see this in Europe, and when the LPC was much weaker they did support some Harper budgets. In this climate the LPC and CPC make a big show of being rivals, and have been very negative towards each other, but on things like TMX, taxation, trade, they could work together... but neither would really like the political look of it.

[lilTommy]

In 1997 the Liberals just barely eked out a majority by five seats...but they didn’t just win Ontario that year. They won 101 out of 103 seats in Ontario due to the conservative vote being split down the middle between the PCs and the Reform Party.. I expect the Liberals to get a plurality off seats in Ontario and to likely end up with more seats than the Tories in a minority parliament, but if anyone tunings the Liberals will win all but one or two seats in Ontario like they did in 1997, all I can say is, you’ve gotta be nuts

But they don't have to. The Libs will do significantly better in Quebec than they did in '97, making a clean sweep of Ontario unnecessary to hold a majoriry.

The LPC will also do better in Atlantic Canada, no one thinks (even me) that the NDP can pull 30% in NS again this time.

I think the 1997 comparison is that the LPC will drop from a Majority to a minority (or super close to it)

[lilTommy]

Nanos has the NDP ahead of the CPC in Quebec, sitting third now; 15.5% vs 15.2%
LPC - 34.7%, BQ - 24.5%


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
EKOS
CPC: 31.8% (+0.1)
LPC: 31.2% (+0.7)
NDP: 18.4% (+5.3)
GPC: 6.8% (-6)
BQ: 6.4% (+1)
PPC: 3.4% (-1.3)

EKOS / October 15, 2019 / n=1904 / MOE 2.3% / Telephone/IVR
(% chg w Oct 10)

REGIONALS
BC -> CPC 29%, NDP 27%, LPC 24%, GPC 13%, PPC 4%
AB -> CPC 66%, LPC 19%, NDP 8%, GPC 3%, PPC 3%
SK/MB -> CPC 49%, NDP 22%, LPC 16%, GPC 6%, PPC 5%
ON -> LPC 40%, CPC 30%, NDP 21%, GPC 7%
QC -> BQ 29%, LPC 28%, CPC 18%, NDP 12%, GPC 6%, PPC 4%
AT -> LPC 44%, NDP 19%, CPC 18%, PPC 10%, GPC 6%

[lilTommy]

Wow, the left wing blew dozens of seats by splitting the vote, fdck them.

the Liberal party also isn't really left-wing, no matter what Trudeau makes people think. It's rhetorically center-left but it's historically a centrist/catch-all party and normally governs from the center.

Bang on. The LPC did what it does when it is desperate, and it worked here. Fear monger the CPC (with some legitimacy) and rally this false "vote Strategically" which is code for Vote Liberals. This works well in places like TO, progressives are swingers here. But actually caused some conservative wins and some NDP losses.

NDP and Jagmeet ran a strong campaign, but the polling numbers just did not translate, many progressives held their nose and voted Liberal to stop Scheer. Some very few bright spots for the party like St. Johns East, Nunavut, Winnipeg Centre, holding Edmonton-Strathcona (the ONLY non-CPC seat in Alberta and SASK) and saving most of Vancouver Island. Devastation in Quebec and Saskatchewan, disappointment in Ontario.
The NDP and BQ will have the balance of power which is good, both are arguably progressive left parties who will push the LPC to the left (that's my hope)

Nothing stopping those NDP MPs who lost in QC from staying involved to help re-build the party, like REB, Caron, Dusseault. Sad to see them lose.

[lilTommy]

I'm going to be contrarian, and suggest that this is a very good result for the NDP in that it will be a great opportunity for them.

The result is very similar to Jack's first election in 2004. 4th place, 16% of the vote, Liberal-led minority government. The big difference was the gain in seats, but they only won a paltry 19 seats. Another difference was that the NDP didn't quite hold the balance of power. But, now they do. The NDP has more power now than they did in 2011 when they were opposition.

The minority governments of the 2000s were great for the NDP, and ultimately led to the Orange crush in 2011. The same could happen now.

Not too long ago, the NDP were poised for a single digit election night, but Jagmeet pulled them out from that. Sure, it fell rather short from what we hoped, but it's still a relief. Jagmeet is a great campaigner, he's not going anywhere.

I want to agree with this, but I'm not sure I do. Singh is popular in the abstract, but there is a question of where the votes are going to come from to turn that into seats. It wasn't a good election result in the west or in non-GTA Ontario; in BC the Greens continue to be a threat (both in terms of the NDP base and their chances of winning disillusioned Liberals); the results in Toronto were straight-up disastrous, as voters who had no need to vote tactically for Trudeau did it anyway; and you can't blame him for Quebec's median voter being pretty racist, but it doesn't seem likely to change any time soon and that will dull the NDP's prospects there.

It just feels like people like him because it's safe to do so, but when push comes to shove it doesn't transform into anything meaningful.
[/quote]

I think you're really failing to realize that in Toronto in particular, the strategic voting fear mongering works, and works well sadly. I'd wager that in the core ridings of Toronto (those 8 old city of Toronto seats, more like 7 since Toronto-St.Pauls is much more mid-town feeling then DT except for the 2018 ON election) about 40% of those Progressive voters are swinger voters who will equally vote NDP or LPC. It doesn't matter that many of these voters don't have to vote LPC to stop the CPC, they do b/c it scares them so much, they will vote LPC since they were seen nationally as the strongest Progressive party. That's partly why the NDP swept these ridings provincially as well, Horwath and the ONDP were seen as the best Progressive choice so you saw places like Spadina-Fort York go 50% NDP; in 2015 and 2019 FED this went LPC by 50%. You can see where the NDP can win in TO, you just need to look at ON 2018. It was, frankly not a LPC vote but an anti-CPC vote.
For me it even more clear in the Old suburbs where this strategic vote was the most obvious, places like Humber River-Black Creek, Scarborough Southwest where the NDP have a strong and growing base that the shift was most obvious that this was a strategic vote. The Ford/Scheer smear again worked.
BC might be different, also disappointing especially not picking up Burnaby North-Seymor and losing Port-Moody-Coquitlam (But only by 300 votes or so). While the Green breakthrough did not happen and the NDP saved their seats on the Island, the Greens cost them half a dozen seats in the Lower Mainland.

My take is people were willing to vote NDP until the last few days of massive fear mongering from both the CPC and LPC, you can see it in the pre-election polling of the NDP at 18-20 and the CPC/LPC at around 30-32%. Sadly in Canada it's becoming standard people to vote against someone.

Hatmans point is that Singh is in a better position then Mulcair was in terms of influence and frankly power.

[lilTommy]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

Yup, agreed.

Which is why there is no mass call for him to step down, or a leadership review. The Big difference between Mulcair and Singh, was that Mulcair and his troupe ran a poor campaign, performed "meh" in the debates and the policy book did not really resonate with the membership/base. The opposite of this last election.

[lilTommy]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

Wouldn't it be best for Singh to form an official coalition government with Trudeau? I know this is not as common as in countries like Germany or Italy, but the UK also had a coalition government from 2010 to 2015. I think the Liberal Party and NDP could get some stuff done.

Why would either party even want a coalition?

Singh getting a coalition agreement gives  him something concrete to point to when the NDP gets money and people start whispering that he has to go. Trudeau though has enough seats that his minority can last without an agreement, his total would need to be at least 10 seats lower to make it a possibility.

1. Singh's job is 100% safe. The next NDP convention is a year form now and i would guess that he would get about a 90% confidence vote from delegates. There is literally no one in the party organizing against him. he is now very popular with the members.

2. Coalition is a non-starter - it would be a step towards a merger of the NDP and Liberals into one party with the NDP being totally swallowed up. There is no interest in that and there is no tradition of it in Canada.

The ONLY talk you might see start to bubble up is an NDP-Green merger. I was hearing a lot social media chatter about this when the Greens were about 10% and the NDP 12%.

[lilTommy]

Re-count coming in Port Moody-Coquitlam

https://www.tricitynews.com/news/ndp-zarrillo-granted-vote-recount-in-port-moody-coquitlam-1.23991933?fbclid=IwAR1smWbLJAoYG71-qoPjQBnyo_ndl2Vdf_V61NApmdKgJxXISc1VOF9oZ6k

This is an NDP vs CPC seat, the CPC won by 153 votes but there seem to be some irregularities here.

[lilTommy]

Re-count coming in Port Moody-Coquitlam

https://www.tricitynews.com/news/ndp-zarrillo-granted-vote-recount-in-port-moody-coquitlam-1.23991933?fbclid=IwAR1smWbLJAoYG71-qoPjQBnyo_ndl2Vdf_V61NApmdKgJxXISc1VOF9oZ6k

This is an NDP vs CPC seat, the CPC won by 153 votes but there seem to be some irregularities here.

There is 3 recounts in fact, Bloc also asked for recounts in Québec (Liberal hold by 325 votes) and Hochelaga (Liberal gain by 328 votes).

Validated results still have yet to be posted for Labrador & Nunavut; this makes five ridings outstanding for final figures.

I wonder if it is due to the size and remote character of both ridings? The current vote has both the NDP in Nunavut and LPC in Labrador at 41%, so I don't expect the results to change in terms of who was elected.

But Port Moody-Coquitlam, of the 3 re-counts, could result in a new MP.

[lilTommy]

How come the NDP seems to routine be overrated by the polls? This election, Alberta 2019, Ontario 2018, and arguably the 2015 election all come to mind as examples of the NDP underperforming their poll numbers. It can't all be late swings surely?

Part of it is that the NDP are more reliant on younger voters than other parties, and another part of it is the NDP GOTV infrastructure is a lot weaker than the Liberals or Conservatives. I'm sure there's other reasons too though.

I think in Ontario 2018, the NDP peaked earlier and then failed to capitalize on it, but they were polling about 30-35% in that last few days and got about 33%. I think the party made a few mistakes that last week and many anti-OLP voters who were polling ONDP moved to the OPC. Again strategic voting always hurts the NDP, even when the NDP/ONDP were polling ahead of the OLP, the OLP was pushing strategic voting against the ONDP.
That was a different case then we saw here in Fed2019. Here we did see the NDP peak at a good point, a few days earlier would have been nicer but, the last weekend we saw a massive push to vote strategically, and many Progressive voters who lean NDP voted LPC... you can see that in the cities, particularly in Toronto.

[lilTommy]

How come the NDP seems to routine be overrated by the polls? This election, Alberta 2019, Ontario 2018, and arguably the 2015 election all come to mind as examples of the NDP underperforming their poll numbers. It can't all be late swings surely?

Part of it is that the NDP are more reliant on younger voters than other parties, and another part of it is the NDP GOTV infrastructure is a lot weaker than the Liberals or Conservatives. I'm sure there's other reasons too though.

I think in Ontario 2018, the NDP peaked earlier and then failed to capitalize on it, but they were polling about 30-35% in that last few days and got about 33%. I think the party made a few mistakes that last week and many anti-OLP voters who were polling ONDP moved to the OPC. Again strategic voting always hurts the NDP, even when the NDP/ONDP were polling ahead of the OLP, the OLP was pushing strategic voting against the ONDP.
That was a different case then we saw here in Fed2019. Here we did see the NDP peak at a good point, a few days earlier would have been nicer but, the last weekend we saw a massive push to vote strategically, and many Progressive voters who lean NDP voted LPC...you can see that in the cities, particularly in Toronto.

Which was lolworthy given the poor NDP results in Toronto seats the Tories had no chance of winning. I'd love to know how many people voted tactically when it didn't matter or voted tactically in the wrong direction

You would be surprised! It was infuriating, particularly in the NDP targets that people legit thought they have to vote LPC to stop the CPC... the issue is they did not understand the local vs national polling and voting.