Reasonable 2008 maps?

[No more McShame]

I don't see Hillary winning Nevada.  It would be close though.

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I don't see Hillary winning Nevada.  It would be close though.

That was me being generous to the Dems and I don't think a Santorum candidacy will go over all that well in Nevada. He would probably still take the state though.

You're probably right about Santorum not going over well in Nevada, I just think Hillary would go down worse.   NOTA would poll very strongly there .

I disagree on your analysis of Wisconsin, Phil. I'm not so sure that social issues are as important there as you make out. Even if they were, Santorum wouldn't have much of an advantage in a state that tends to favor liberals (e.g. Kohl and Feingold).

Also, out of interest, why would Santorum not go down well in Nevada?

I've spent a lot of time in Wisconsin, and it doesn't strike me as a state that would take Hillary well.  Joe farmer isn't going to trust her as far as he could spit tobacco  There is strong pockets of Catholism in Wisconsin, which would suit Santorum well.

On the flip side, Nevada has the lowest percentage of church going population.  This is why Bush hasn't done as strongly as past Republicans there even though he did win the state twice.  Santorum's image (which will be played over and over again by the Democrats if he is the nominee) will not help him there.  However, they tend to like less government in Nevada and will not fall for Hillary's "repositioning" herself as a moderate.

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In keeping with the spirit of the thread, something like this:

Santorum 270
Bayh 268



My guess would be more like this:

Bayh 326
Santorum 212

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1) Santorum is likely to carry PA in a Presidential election. Against Evan Bayh - probably not. Against most others - yes. I strongly advise people not to follow someone like Flyers' opinion on this matter. He is convinced that Santorum is despised in this state and that is not the case at all.
2) Bayh vs. Santorum would look a lot like your map except I think Santorum would keep Missouri and Bayh would probably win PA.
3) To address Joe Republic's point, in such a heavily conservative Catholic state like WI, Santorum would be more welcomed and accepted. If Bush can make it that close, Santorum can tip it to the GOP.

You may be right.  You know a hell of a lot more about the political climate in PA, but home turf advantage is hard to overcome.  Only a handful of nominees have lost their homestate in a presidential election.  Obviously if Santorum was despised as much as Flyers says he is, he would have been tossed out of office by now.

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Plus being Catholic will help him in Wisconsin. 

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Opebo, if you think the economy will still be a problem in 2008, you really have no idea how economics work in the real world.  Economies go up and down, it's a fact of life and no macroeconomic policy will ever change that.  Barring another 9-11 style attack, the economy will be much stronger in 2008 than it was in 2004.  It's just the way things go.  Maybe one of your Thai hookers could give you a lesson because I'm sure they feel the effects of a down economy