MO: Mason-Dixon: McCaskill-Akin dead heat.

[Franzl]

I'm starting to believe Akin will win this. Strong ad attacking Claire - http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/27/akin_unveils_new_attack_ad.html

If this is really a two point race right now, stuff like this and the undecideds being strongly for Romney will push him across the finish line.

Didn't Rasmussen of all people have Akin down by 8% or something? Think there were 1-2 other polls showing similar results too.

Don't see what changed in that short period of time.

But regardless, it's not surprising that Missouri is getting closer. It's Missouri, after all.

[Franzl]

Looking at the crosstabs here - Democrats support McCaskill with 97%, with Akin not even getting 1%. Only 3% undecided. However, with Republicans, 9% remain undecided. Akin leads 42-36 amongst Independents, with Dine getting 9% (unlikely to actually occur), and 13% undecided. Mitt Romney leads with Independents 57-34.

This leads me to think that most undecided voters, almost all who are either Republicans or Independents who support Romney, likely lean to the right, and are currently battling on whether to vote on who they like personally or who they agree with politically. It appears that undecideds should break towards Akin, so I think this race could be close like 2006.

Of course it'll be relatively close. But Akin has a hard path to an actual plurality.