COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Sir Mohamed]

Lowest new case numbers since March today. Good work ladies and gents.

Starts to go up again once the lockdown gets lifted or party lifted. Regardless of whether we wait to next week, May or June. Before vaccine hasn't arrived, I don't see how we get out of this without living in a permanent "state of emergency".

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1252808909456203776

Hardly a surprise the virus was spread earlier than expected. Similar to Italy.

What's problematic with reported Covid19 deaths is there can't be made a statistical distinction between deaths from covid19 and deaths in spite of the disease. It's not unlikely some deaths are not the direct result of the disease. On the other hand, some deaths from it could be undiscovered due to a lack of testing and previous symptoms.

[Sir Mohamed]

Bad news: Elizabeth Warren's brother has died from the virus. My deepest condolences

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1253332675315724289

[Sir Mohamed]

A very stable genius.

[Sir Mohamed]

Imagine if the news media displayed at all times the death counts for every other illness. No one would ever leave their home! Absolute fear mongering. Reopen the US economy.

Do Trump supporters understand the connection between death counts, death rate and transmission rate?

Their leader thinks injecting disinfectants could work to cure covid and windmills cause cancer. What do you expect?

[Sir Mohamed]

Your weekly reminder that we still have no plan for the next 12 months.

Does the world? Sure, Mr. Trump and his admin are utterly incompetent, but I don't see other countries with a better crisis management have a detailed plan for the next 12 months either. The whole situation is so volatile, it's next to impossible to plan for a longer period of time. We still don't have enough scientific data about the virus itsself, the disease, medical treatment, vaccine and dynamics of the pandemic. Things that seem impossible today could be discussed tomorrow and be a matter of fact next week. Things that appear to be certain today, could be debunked by a study coming out tomorrow.

I'm afraid we need to figure out a way to live with the pandemic without having too much economic and social damage until a vaccine is ready for full scale use. Unless there is mass immunity through one way or the other, this thing won't go away, even if lockdowns reduce the number of sick people.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not directly related to US, but a huge deal if true: Now there are reports the first Covid19 case in France could be dating back to November 2019. For reference, the PRC informed WHO on December 31. Haven't seen US media picking this up yet, but if confirmed, we may be talking about a much earlier spread in the US and elsewhere.

https://twitter.com/KlimaZen/status/1258424493531430915

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/RepDonBeyer/status/1260691091881369602

It was only sarcasm. We never suggested that. It's a total hoax by the fake news media, orchestrated by Obama /s

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/sfpelosi/status/1263601262567686144

One mask that, if properly fitted like a muzzle, can save many thousands of lives.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1265045009323241472

Trump even retweeted this. Anyways, at least he'd look black instead of orange

[Sir Mohamed]

The question about vaccine is not just "when there is one", but when there is done ready for mass production and use? Where are the production capabilities we need? And who and how pays for that? We must now make sure, everyone in this country, or basically the whole world, gets vaccine regardless of economic status.

Each country should be prepare for this as we speak and not wait until a vaccine is actually there. Because once this happened and it's approved for mass use, each country with the capabilities will produce for their own people they start selling and shipping to others. It would be great to act in concert with our allies to ensure everything works out fine, but as long as Trump is prez, this isn't happening. I'm not even seeing a strategy of his admin for mass production in the US after vaccine is available.

It's not like the problem will be solved the day vaccine is found and approved. Even if this is the case by Christmas (I think spring 2021 is more realistic), it takes more months for mass use. Remember we need billions around the world.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Kevinliptakcnn/status/1271191270434758656

Mr. Trump only pays lawsuits if you punch protesters in the face.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, Florida is reporting +2,581 cases on Worldometer, compared to its previous high yesterday of 1,902. And what is worse, it is a weekend, cases are usually lower on weekends, right? That is quite a large increase and a very worrying uptrend. Alabama also reported its highest case # so far today.

We will have to wait and see what the other states report later in the day, if the other southern/southwestern states show a similar trend, that will mean serious problems going forward. With each passing day at the moment, we are looking more like Iran.

Remember when there were people saying that the coming of hot weather would make the virus fade away?

Tbh, this assumption wasn't that unjustified. People including some scientists at the very beginning thought this virus, just like others, will either fade away or its spread seriously slowed down as a result of warmer weather. It's well known dry air and UV radiation inhibit many viruses from spreading, such as the flu. Back in March, if I remember correctly, first studies revealed this might not be the case with Sars 2. Turned out the be true, obviously, though there is some evidence the summer months have a small effect. Just not nearly enough to get the pandemic under actual control. It may get worse as we move into fall and cause the so-called 2nd wave (despite the 1st not actually over yet).

[Sir Mohamed]

Loong at FL and other states basically confirm some studies that showe temperarure is not having much of an effect to stop the spreading of this virus. It's not like the flu at all.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1282672141394116610

You can always count on Americans to make literally everything, even something so small and easy as wearing a mask during a global pandemic, a partisan issue.

The broader issue here is science. Many at the GOP base don't have a high opinion of science, because they live in their own world. A world, where Hannity and Limbaugh are your "eductator" rather than experts. For years or decades, these figures have preached how horrible "experts" and scientests are and pained them as out of touch elitsts looking down at middle America. Otherwise, they wouldn't have nominated a presidential candidate who, by all objective accounts, had ZERO credentials for the job he was seeking.

[Sir Mohamed]

He is not going to have any coherent answer on that. The pro-lockdown crowd just expects everyone to stay in their homes until every single living organism on planet earth has a coronavirus vaccine. And they are completely dismissive of the negative side effects of that such as mass evictions, starvation, increasing national debt, more mental health crisises, etc. Since their side does not care about those issues I have decided that I do not care if some people die over this. Too bad.

Can't one think the lockdown wasn't long enough, based on the current situation of spiking cases, while not also knowing exactly how long it should have been? I'm not sure anyone knows how long it should have been.

The uncomfortable answer is that a longer lockdown would have prevented cases from spiking today, but only have delay the problem for some weeks or months. Even if we had total lockdown lasting for months, bringing active cases down the a few thousand, numbers would again sharply rise once the lockdown gets partially or fully lifted. Even if cases in the US would disappear at once, one person coming from outside could start a new infection chain that leads to millions of infections in a few months. The problem simply is a lack of sufficient (worldwide) immunity against this virus.

I'm afraid we will have to continue with local lockdowns back and forth for many, many more months unless we want even more cases than we already have. Maybe up 100k a day (we're not too far from that already). Before an effective vaccine is available, we can't return the normalcy without paying a very huge price in human lives. And the saddest part is that we don't know when a vaccine is ready for mass use and how effective it's going to be. It's possible we will never find an effective one and the virus is either here to stay or it will fade away through mutation (what sometimes happens with viruses).

In short: Lockdowns are needed, but they're not the solution. They only buy time. The negative effects are economic problems and social distress.

[Sir Mohamed]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

Seriously? If so, maybe you think otherwise if you grandparents or parents are on intensive care in the hospital. I hope this will never happen to anyone, but think about that. It's also not true only older people die from Covid19.

[Sir Mohamed]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

Talk about lack of empathy. None of those four things are even things explicitly caused by lock downs.

We do not have to shut the economy down to practice social distancing! We have proven effective methods to slow the spread that should be common sense.

Of course I do not want people dying of covid19. I am just frustrated  now that the only solution being thrown out there are full on lockdowns.

Florida should be placed under a stay at home order but they put themselves in this mess

You need to realize the economy can't function with a severe public health crisis. What's the use of opening shops, bars and restaurants if nobody goes there because people are either too sick or afraid to get infected?

[Sir Mohamed]

Scientists identify six different types of coronavirus with increasing severity levels

Analysis of thousands of cases by artificial intelligence software has revealed different "clusters" of symptoms and ranked them in order of severity.

Headache and loss of smell are common to all six groupings, but the range of symptoms varies widely after that.

Scientists at King's College London (KCL) found that patients with the sixth type of Covid-19 are nearly 10 times more likely to end up needing breathing support than patients in the first group.

Are these different strains or just different symptom tracks?  For instance, if person A had the mildest one, would person B get that same version from him/her?  If that's the case, that would be a huge development because it would really make an "intentional and rapid herd immunity strategy" much easier to implement with much less cost.

I wish that that article linked to the full article (or gave enough information to find it), but it seems like it's the "just different symptom tracks" option... I'm guessing they did a factor analysis based on symptoms, which is basically just a way to sort people with different constellations of symptoms into separate groups that could be used to predict later outcomes. So this could be used to predict which cases would get a lot worse, but not to predict disease spread.

The most interesting question here would be how this effect post-infection immunity. If patients from one form are rarely immune to the other types, it would be bad news for vaccines. Earlier in the pandemic, I read that people who were recently infected with another coronavirus might have some level of immunity against Sars II though.

[Sir Mohamed]

COVID-19 patients will be ‘sent home to die’ if deemed too sick, Texas county says

In April, its aggressive and successful approach to beating the coronavirus was spotlighted by NBC News.
...
But after Gov. Greg Abbott issued orders for the reopening of the state, overriding local control and decision-making, COVID-19 cases surged.

Now Starr County is at a dangerous “tipping point,” reporting an alarming number of new cases each day, data show. Starr County Memorial Hospital — the county’s only hospital — is overflowing with COVID-19 patients.

The county has been forced to form what is being compared to a so-called “death panel.” A county health board – which governs Starr Memorial – is set to authorize critical care guidelines Thursday that will help medical workers determine ways to allocate scarce medical resources on patients with the best chance to survive.

Absolutely inhumane. It's not even aiding the economy, because people can't go to work sick. And opening stores and restaurants is useless if nobody goes there out of fear to get infected or because people are too sick.