Coalitions today had Nixon won 1960 and push through CRA and VRA?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Probably basically the same. Southern realignment had specific elections (1964, some congressional elections in 64 and 66) in which race was a big issue, but it wasn't primarily or even significantly race driven. Republican gains in the South stuck with Eisenhower when he was pro civil rights as President (in fact, they expanded on a absolute basis 56 and on a relative basis in 1960) and it's unlikely that they would have not also stuck with Nixon had he done the same.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The 1960 election trend map is actually a great example of this, especially when combined with the



1952 trend map mins Thurmond 48's banner states (SC, GA, AL, MS, and LA)



the 1948 swing map



and the 1944 swing map



as well as graphs of GOP vote share from specific states, like Alabama, where the Dem vote share fell in every election from 1940 to 1960

In fact, this is a bit of a broader point, but portrayals of Dems losing Southern voters because of the 1964 Civil Rights Act miss that the truth is almost entirely the opposite: Dems passed the 64 CRA because they were already losing Southern voters, and needed to look elsewhere for support.