GA HD-132 - Spry Strategies/Georgia House Republican Caucus (R): Trump +6%, Trammell losing

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On one hand, Trammell was always in trouble; his state House primary margin was only 51.5% versus the GOP, the worst of all the Dem-held seats. He's had enough crossover appeal to survive even as the top-of-ballot margins have become increasingly GOP-friendly, but I wonder if his time is running out. I know this is a GOP internal, which means that caution is always warranted, but the outcome it paints isn't outlandish.

For those unaware, HD-132 is a district that's Dem at the ends (Newnan and LaGrange) but ancestral Dem/GOP-leaning in the middle (Moreland, Hoganville, and much of northern Meriwether County). In the past, Newnan+LaGrange+Meriwether County was enough to keep Dem incumbents in control here, but as Meriwether (like most ancestral Dem counties in this state) has moved right, it means that any Dem who wants to win this district is increasingly reliant on getting solid turnout and support at the "ends". There could be enough support at the "ends" this year to earn Trammell reelection in spite of the disappearance of Dem support in the "middle", but that will really be put to the test.

Now, this is one of the few Dem-held state House seats where Dems are really, really vulnerable (none of their state Senate seats are anything less than Safe D). There are a bunch of marginal seats in the north metro, but a combination of the increasingly Dem-friendly environment there and residual state legislative incumbency effects (i.e. it's hard to dislodge an incumbent state legislator unless the top-of-ballot swing is truly awful - see what will happen to Republican Brett Harrell in his Abrams+15 HD-106 this year - the incumbent is truly controversial, or the margin is extremely tight to begin with AND local trends are unfavorable to the party holding the seat - HD-109 will be a good test on this point) means that all the metro area Dems should survive, even those like Robichaux (HD-48), Clark (HD-108), and Frances Williams (HD-37).

Of course, losing Trammell would make the already slim Dem chances of winning the state House even smaller, because they need a net gain of 16 seats. Losing Trammell would mean that they would need to gain 17 seats from the GOP, which is not impossible, but Biden would need to have an unbelievable night, so unbelievable that it drags a whole bunch of districts (I'm talking the likes of those in HD-44 or HD-110) over the line with him.

It's quite possible that Biden could win a majority of state House seats versus Trump, but his coattails (and whatever Ossoff can get) aren't enough to bring enough state House candidates over the line with him.

I still think Dems will have a net gain of seats in both chambers, but they're almost certainly going to be condemned to another round of horrible state legislative maps for another decade.