PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Obama+9

[Tender Branson]

Remember, this is the only poll that J.J. trusts in Pennsylvania, so this is important:

52-43 Obama (likely voters)
50-39 Obama (registered voters)

Obama led by 6 percentage points in an August F&M poll of registered voters.

Casey led Republican Senate nominee Tom Smith by a 46 percent to 34 percent margin. Among likely voters, Casey's lead narrowed to 48 percent to 38 percent. In the same August F&M poll, Casey also led Smith by 12 points among registered voters.

Pennsylvanians see both Democrats more favorably. Half of voters surveyed (50 percent) said their opinion of Obama was strongly or somewhat favorable with more than two in five voters (42 percent) saying they view him strongly or somewhat unfavorably.

Only about a third (34 percent) had a favorable view of Romney compared to more than half (53 percent) who have an unfavorable view.

Almost two in five voters (37 percent) had a favorable view of Casey with less than a third (29 percent) having an unfavorable view.

Only a fifth (20 percent) had a favorable view of Smith with about the same number (18 percent) having an unfavorable view. His bigger problem is more than three in five voters (62 percent) are still undecided or don't know enough about him.

The poll surveyed 632 registered voters between Sept. 18 and Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The sample of 392 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points.

http://republicanherald.com/news/pa-voters-displeased-with-job-performance-of-obama-casey-but-prefer-them-to-rivals-1.1378892

[NVGonzalez]

PA is losing its swing state status.

[Eraserhead]

PA is losing its swing state status.

It never had it this year.

[sg0508]

Keep in mind, there was a very small chance Romney was going to carry PA anyhow.  Actually, I'm not even sure why anyone really considers it a toss-up to begin with.  It hasn't gone to the GOP since '88 and outside of maybe '04, it wasn't that close in any other year.

[J. J.]

It is probably the best poll for PA, but they are noted for not pushing, and getting a high undecided (that breaks down the same way).  My guess is 44% to 56%.

[Badger]

Keep in mind, there was a very small chance Romney was going to carry PA anyhow.  Actually, I'm not even sure why anyone really considers it a toss-up to begin with.  It hasn't gone to the GOP since '88 and outside of maybe '04, it wasn't that close in any other year.

It was close in 2000 also. This is the first time in 40 years the state isn't seriously contested.

[J. J.]

Keep in mind, there was a very small chance Romney was going to carry PA anyhow.  Actually, I'm not even sure why anyone really considers it a toss-up to begin with.  It hasn't gone to the GOP since '88 and outside of maybe '04, it wasn't that close in any other year.

It was close in 2000 also. This is the first time in 40 years the state isn't seriously contested.

Well, in all fairness, McCain in 2008 shouldn't have been contesting it.  It was not close in 1992 and 1996.

[Wisconsin+17]

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It's a good thing we didn't select this man, eh?

[J. J.]

Remember, this is the only poll that J.J. trusts in Pennsylvania, so this is important:

Only university poll that I trust for PA.  They do get it right.  I believe them.

[Craigo]

Remember, this is the only poll that J.J. trusts in Pennsylvania, so this is important:

Only university poll that I trust for PA.  They do get it right.  I believe them.

There aren't any university polls I distrust in PA, and I'm a former Pennsylvania pollster (who's never worked for a university).

[Craigo]

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It's a good thing we didn't select this man, eh?

The guy who lost by 18 his last time out? Yeah, probably a good thing.

[Franzl]

Keep in mind, there was a very small chance Romney was going to carry PA anyhow.  Actually, I'm not even sure why anyone really considers it a toss-up to begin with.  It hasn't gone to the GOP since '88 and outside of maybe '04, it wasn't that close in any other year.

It was close in 2000 also. This is the first time in 40 years the state isn't seriously contested.

Well, in all fairness, McCain in 2008 shouldn't have been contesting it.  It was not close in 1992 and 1996.

Says the person that insisted Obama would win Pennsylvania by 1%.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

F&M is a good pollster. The school's a good one and only about 15 minutes from where I live; it's one of my top colleges that I'd like to attend.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Franklin and Marshall College on 2012-09-24

Summary: D: 52%, R: 43%, I: 2%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[J. J.]

Keep in mind, there was a very small chance Romney was going to carry PA anyhow.  Actually, I'm not even sure why anyone really considers it a toss-up to begin with.  It hasn't gone to the GOP since '88 and outside of maybe '04, it wasn't that close in any other year.

It was close in 2000 also. This is the first time in 40 years the state isn't seriously contested.

Well, in all fairness, McCain in 2008 shouldn't have been contesting it.  It was not close in 1992 and 1996.

Says the person that insisted Obama would win Pennsylvania by 1%.

I thought it would be less, but not quite by one point.

[J. J.]

F&M is a good pollster. The school's a good one and only about 15 minutes from where I live; it's one of my top colleges that I'd like to attend.

Terry Madonna, the guy who does it, it a great pollster.  He was at Millersville until the mid 2000's but he was always good.  If he'd switch to another school, that would be the best uni poll for PA.

[Franzl]

Keep in mind, there was a very small chance Romney was going to carry PA anyhow.  Actually, I'm not even sure why anyone really considers it a toss-up to begin with.  It hasn't gone to the GOP since '88 and outside of maybe '04, it wasn't that close in any other year.

It was close in 2000 also. This is the first time in 40 years the state isn't seriously contested.

Well, in all fairness, McCain in 2008 shouldn't have been contesting it.  It was not close in 1992 and 1996.

Says the person that insisted Obama would win Pennsylvania by 1%.

I thought it would be less, but not quite by one point.

You remember (or want to remember?) incorrectly:

I'm predicting Obama, but by 1.5 points, in PA.

[ajb]

Keep in mind, there was a very small chance Romney was going to carry PA anyhow.  Actually, I'm not even sure why anyone really considers it a toss-up to begin with.  It hasn't gone to the GOP since '88 and outside of maybe '04, it wasn't that close in any other year.

It was close in 2000 also. This is the first time in 40 years the state isn't seriously contested.

Well, in all fairness, McCain in 2008 shouldn't have been contesting it.  It was not close in 1992 and 1996.

Says the person that insisted Obama would win Pennsylvania by 1%.

I thought it would be less, but not quite by one point.

You remember (or want to remember?) incorrectly:

I'm predicting Obama, but by 1.5 points, in PA.

To be fair, that's "not quite by one point."

[J. J.]

Keep in mind, there was a very small chance Romney was going to carry PA anyhow.  Actually, I'm not even sure why anyone really considers it a toss-up to begin with.  It hasn't gone to the GOP since '88 and outside of maybe '04, it wasn't that close in any other year.

It was close in 2000 also. This is the first time in 40 years the state isn't seriously contested.

Well, in all fairness, McCain in 2008 shouldn't have been contesting it.  It was not close in 1992 and 1996.

Says the person that insisted Obama would win Pennsylvania by 1%.

I thought it would be less, but not quite by one point.

You remember (or want to remember?) incorrectly:

I'm predicting Obama, but by 1.5 points, in PA.

A month out, but the polling showed Obama was winning it.

[Franzl]

You kept insisting that margin until Election Day. Remember...Bradley Effect!!!

[Landslide Lyndon]

You kept insisting that margin until Election Day. Remember...Bradley Effect!!!

It's easier to make Pope renounce his infallibility than JJ.

[Franzl]

You kept insisting that margin until Election Day. Remember...Bradley Effect!!!

It's easier to make Pope renounce his infallibility than JJ.

And the Pope is right more often.

[Ty440]

Krazen oh Krazen, where art thou?


I must admit i miss reading his lunacy....lol

[J. J.]

You kept insisting that margin until Election Day. Remember...Bradley Effect!!!

No, but I did think it would be lower than the polling in PA, and expressed surprise when they were right on.  I've made the point that they were dead on in PA many times since.

[Mister Twister]

Does anyone who lives in Pennsylvania know why Obama appears to be polling better than Casey all of the sudden?