FL-Quinnipiac: Obama in worse shape after budget deal

[Tender Branson]

The national debt ceiling deal does not rescue President Barack Obama's crashing job approval rating in Florida as he gets a negative 44 - 51 percent score among voters surveyed August 1 - 2, after the deal was announced, compared to a negative 44 - 50 percent score among voters surveyed July 27 - 31, before the deal, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a positive 51 - 43 percent approval rating for President Obama in a May 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.

Florida voters surveyed after the deal say 50 - 42 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, compared to a 47 - 46 percent split before the deal and 50 - 44 percent support for his reelection May 26.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the leading Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race, ties Obama 44 - 44 percent post-deal, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Obama lead pre-deal. Obama has double-digit leads over other top Republicans pre-deal and post-deal, except for Texas Gov. Rick Perry who trails Obama 44 - 39 percent post-deal.

"President Barack Obama's numbers in the key swing state of Florida have gone south in the last two months. The debt ceiling deal is not making any difference in that decline and any bounce he got from the bin Laden operation is long since gone," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The president's drop off is huge among independent voters who now disapprove almost 2-1."

The post-debt deal poll shows little change in Obama's May approval among Republicans and Democrats. But among independent voters he plummets from a 47 - 45 percent split in May to a 61 - 33 percent disapproval today.

Men, who approved 49 - 47 percent in May, disapprove in the post-deal survey 54 - 42 percent. Women go from 53 - 40 percent approval in May to a 46 - 49 percent split today.

From July 27 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 674 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent. August 1 - 2, 743 registered voters were surveyed with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The total survey of 1,417 registered voters surveyed from July 27 - August 2 includes 510 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1632

Obama vs. Romney

[Tender Branson]

Interesting:

Florida Independents approve of the debt deal by double digits, but Obama's margin among Independents over Romney and Perry dropped by 20 points (!!!) after the debt deal. The margin remained mostly steady when matched against Bachmann and Palin.

[Tender Branson]

It seems like the samples were completely different.

Yeah, I wonder what kind of sample this is to produce a Obama vs. Romney tie.

Romney leads 89-4 among Republicans and 46-32 among Independents, while Obama leads 84-9 among Democrats.

A D+10 sample ?

[Tender Branson]

Adjusted for 2010 exit poll data, Romney leads Obama by 8 points.

Adjusted for 2008 data, Romney leads by 5 points.

[Tender Branson]

It must be at least a D+8 sample.

[Tender Branson]

2004 exit poll data has Romney leading 50-40.

[Tender Branson]

If the best Romney can manage is a tie, then he's not as strong as he's being made out to be. I don't see how the sample matters much, seeing as Obama's approval is underwater.

The sample matters a lot. This poll is too Democratic (ca. D+8) compared with historical turnout.

The current registration in Florida is 41% DEM, 36% GOP and 23% Others.

If the poll would have this sample (D+5), the results would be:

46-43 Romney

But usually Republicans have better turnout in FL than Democrats, like in 2004 and 2006. Only in 2008 it was D+3, in 2010 it was even. So it is very unlikely that Democrats will enjoy a 8% turnout advantage next year, when 2008 was one of the most favorable years for them.

[Tender Branson]

If the best Romney can manage is a tie, then he's not as strong as he's being made out to be. I don't see how the sample matters much, seeing as Obama's approval is underwater.

The sample matters a lot. This poll is too Democratic (ca. D+8) compared with historical turnout.

The current registration in Florida is 41% DEM, 36% GOP and 23% Others.

If the poll would have this sample (D+5), the results would be:

46-43 Romney

But usually Republicans have better turnout in FL than Democrats, like in 2004 and 2006. Only in 2008 it was D+3, in 2010 it was even. So it is very unlikely that Democrats will enjoy a 8% turnout advantage next year, when 2008 was one of the most favorable years for them.

But the approval still says a lot here, if there were too many Democrats skewing the sample, wouldn't that equal better approval? And even with an adjustment, the numbers don't shift that dramatically.

It shifts a bit.

In a tied election (36% DEMs, 36% GOPers and 28% Independents turning out) - like in most recent Florida elections - Obama's adjusted approval is down to 42% approve, 54% disapprove, instead of 44-51 in the DEM+8 sample.