Why did Bush win Ohio?

[electionsguy259]

Although Ohio would be the critical state in the 2004 presidential election, I'm curious about its role in the 2000 election. Bush won the state by 3.51%, a larger margin than he would win it by four years later- despite the fact that he lost the popular vote in 2000 and won it in 2004.

[Sumner 1868]

A combination of good margins for Bush in suburbia and a bad showing for Gore in the southern part of the state. Democrats also wrote off the state in mid-October after believing unreliable polls showing Bush with a massive lead.

[TDAS04]

Ohio has consistently voted more Republican the nation as whole going back through 1924, with a small number of exceptions. As one of those exceptions, 2004 was more of an outlier than 2004.

As for why the 2004 vote in Ohio was unusually Democratic relative to the NPV, I’m not completely sure, but I remember the media placed an intense focus on the state. Pundits seemed to think that Ohio and the rustbelt in general were Kerry’s best opportunity deny Bush an EV victory, due to economic concerns in the region. Then of course, Kerry campaigned hard in Ohio and many people believed he had the edge in the state going into Election Day. I remember commentators predicting that Bush would lose Ohio, but make up for it and win the election by flipping Wisconsin and Minnesota!

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Exit polls showed it was gun owners that gave the edge to Bush, according to CNN coverage.

[wnwnwn]

Hamilton County still leaned republican. Clinton won the state with support of southern counties which have voted republican since 2000.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Breaking it down demographically, it was overperforming with white men that really gave Bush the edge. Bush won white women 50-47, not nearly enough to help carry a state with such a decently sized black population. On the other hand Bush won white men 61-34. Compare that to four years later when white men swung heavily Democratic in OH, Bush only winning 56-43, but the "security mom" vote saved Bush as he won white women 55-45.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

The gay marriage referendum

Edit: That was in 2004

[TheTide]

Ohio was pretty solidly seem as being in the Bush column in 2000 and the surprise if anything was how close it was. The drunk driving revelations are said to have narrowed the gap.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

John Edwards didn't have natl security expertise in aftermath of 911.  If he selected Gephardt, Graham or Mark Warner or Wes Clark it would improved him Kerry on the margins even with SSM