OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Brittain33]

Hmm. O'Connor has the facebook enthusiasm, surprisingly, considering Balderson is an established state senator. 4.3K likes to Balderson's 1.6K. Moving this race from Safe R to Likely R in my ratings.

In what way was this ever Safe R?

[LimoLiberal]

Hmm. O'Connor has the facebook enthusiasm, surprisingly, considering Balderson is an established state senator. 4.3K likes to Balderson's 1.6K. Moving this race from Safe R to Likely R in my ratings.

In what way was this ever Safe R?

Balderson led early polls by double-digits.... I consider a 10+ point margin Safe R. 7-10 point margin is more Likely R.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/dannyoconnor1/status/1019983711813689347

O'Connor says he has a new poll showing him only down 45-43.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hmm. O'Connor has the facebook enthusiasm, surprisingly, considering Balderson is an established state senator. 4.3K likes to Balderson's 1.6K. Moving this race from Safe R to Likely R in my ratings.

In what way was this ever Safe R?

It's Limo, duh!

[Tender Branson]

This race might end up closer than I expected, despite Balderson having high favourable ratings and being a solid Republican candidate ...

I think O'Connor's latest internal (D-2) could be about right in the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its the early vote that's showing improvement for Dems. But in the end, it may happen

[BuckeyeNut]

This race might end up closer than I expected, despite Balderson having high favourable ratings and being a solid Republican candidate ...

I think O'Connor's latest internal (D-2) could be about right in the end.

Agreed, for now. It looks like what needs to be happening is happening for O'Connor to win, but we'll see. Polling average is still Balderson +6%. Polling for July is down to Balderson +4%. (Before any weights.)

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/dannyoconnor1/status/1019983711813689347

O'Connor says he has a new poll showing him only down 45-43.

Wow, already? Didnt he just release another poll a couple of days ago?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not surprised, Dems are energized, primed for the upset.

[LimoLiberal]

Moving this from Likely R to Lean R. Feels like an upset in the making. Anybody have some more early voting data to chew on?

[Ebsy]

Woops, did not realize there was a megathread for this race, had been posting these in the results thread:

Early voting update, now with all 7 counties:

[Zaybay]

Woops, did not realize there was a megathread for this race, had been posting these in the results thread:

Early voting update, now with all 7 counties:

What is the optimal early vote percentage needed for the Dems to win the seat?

[Ebsy]

I do not profess to know enough about Ohio or this district to have an answer to that question.

[CapoteMonster]

Woops, did not realize there was a megathread for this race, had been posting these in the results thread:

Early voting update, now with all 7 counties:

What is the optimal early vote percentage needed for the Dems to win the seat?

60-40 about. Dems almost always lose the election day in Ohio but they can get a decent win with EV totals around that number.

[BuckeyeNut]

Woops, did not realize there was a megathread for this race, had been posting these in the results thread:

Early voting update, now with all 7 counties:

What is the optimal early vote percentage needed for the Dems to win the seat?

60-40 about. Dems almost always lose the election day in Ohio but they can get a decent win with EV totals around that number.

60-40 at a minimum. The dynamic of a special will keep it interesting, but O'Connor will lose the vote on E-day quite badly.

[Zaybay]

Woops, did not realize there was a megathread for this race, had been posting these in the results thread:

Early voting update, now with all 7 counties:

What is the optimal early vote percentage needed for the Dems to win the seat?

60-40 about. Dems almost always lose the election day in Ohio but they can get a decent win with EV totals around that number.

60-40 at a minimum. The dynamic of a special will keep it interesting, but O'Connor will lose the vote on E-day quite badly.

Woops, did not realize there was a megathread for this race, had been posting these in the results thread:

Early voting update, now with all 7 counties:

What is the optimal early vote percentage needed for the Dems to win the seat?

60-40 about. Dems almost always lose the election day in Ohio but they can get a decent win with EV totals around that number.

Alright, this is rather promising news. The "other" vote getting 10% so far is also promising news, as they could allow us to get less than 60% and still win. Im actually starting to see an O'Connor win as a pure tossup. Impressive.

[136or142]

Alright, this is rather promising news. The "other" vote getting 10% so far is also promising news, as they could allow us to get less than 60% and still win. Im actually starting to see an O'Connor win as a pure tossup. Impressive.

I wouldn't read much in to this. It's less than 10,000 votes.

[Zaybay]

Alright, this is rather promising news. The "other" vote getting 10% so far is also promising news, as they could allow us to get less than 60% and still win. Im actually starting to see an O'Connor win as a pure tossup. Impressive.

I wouldn't read much in to this. It's less than 10,000 votes.

Yeah, getting a bit ahead of myself. But it seems to me that O'Connor has closed the gap, and that this race will be down to the wire. I also think that the E-day vote will be more Democratic, due to the nature of the race, and so, even if O'Connor gets to 57%, I still think he would be able to pull off a win.

Then again, as you pointed out, these are really early, but from the elections I've analysed, the percentages for Early vote dont really fluctuate wildly.

[LimoLiberal]

Guys, we don't get actual election results until the night of August 7th. The numbers just show who is voting, not who they are voting for. The vast majority of Democrats are probably voting for O'Connor, the vast majority of Republicans for Balderson, and the Republican and Democrat combined take up most of the votes from Others. It's impossible to gauge what level of support the third party candidates are getting. Just because one is an Other does not signify that they support a third party candidate.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1019960903767293953

[Ebsy]

Other simply means that the absentee ballot was cast by someone who has not voted in a party primary or voted in a minor party primary (there has been one Green party absentee voter).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I wouldn't read too much in early voting numbers at this point. EV looked great for Democrats in both 2014 and 2016, and we all know how it ended.

[Pericles]

LimoLib being optimistic on this may actually be a bad sign-after all he's a terrible predictor. Or what if he's trying to make Atlas Dems more disappointed if the Democrats lose this race?

[😥]

Lean R.

Balderson wins 51-46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a tilt GOP race; however, I wouldnt write off Dems in these red districts, if its close. 2-3 points, an upset is possible