2016 Senate: Republicans maintain it?

[Mister Mets]

The problem for Republicans in 2016 is the limited number of pick-up opportunities (Nevada and maybe Colorado) so they'd have the run the table just to stay even.

One major factor in whether Democrats would take back the Senate is the size of the Republican win. It's one thing if Republicans eke out a narrow 51-49 majority. It's another if Republicans run the table and pick up Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota and West Virginia. In that case, Democrats would have to pick up eight seats (one of which is the office of Vice President).

The mood of the electorate two and a half years from now will also be important. If Hillary Clinton has a nine point win against Rand Paul, it's likely to come with coattails for Democrats. If a Republican wins by more than five points, it seems unlikely that Democrats will pick up any seats.

[Mister Mets]

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Hilary is gonna spend a lot of time trying to win over the New York Snow birds that vacation in Florida during  Christmas. Florida is more winnable to us cause it might be an open seat should Rubio opt to run for prez. Patrick Murphy should beat any GOPer not named Rubio. Clinton is gonna spend a lot of time def Johnson , Kirk and Toomey.
[/quote]I don't think Democrats are likely to nominate Murphy for Senate. He's one of the more vulnerable incumbents in the House, and there were early reports that he wanted to join the Republicans.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/democrat-who-beat-allen-west-in-2012-discussed-flipping-to-gop-according-to-report/

That said, in a large swing state with 27 congressional districts, the Democratic party should be able to find a plausible candidate.

[Mister Mets]

Democrats seem unlikely to take back the House any time soon, due to a combination of gerrymandering and geographic sorting. Their best bet is winning state legislatures and governorships in 2018 and 2020, which might not happen. So anyone ambitious has few incentives to stick around in the House.

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Hilary is gonna spend a lot of time trying to win over the New York Snow birds that vacation in Florida during  Christmas. Florida is more winnable to us cause it might be an open seat should Rubio opt to run for prez. Patrick Murphy should beat any GOPer not named Rubio. Clinton is gonna spend a lot of time def Johnson , Kirk and Toomey.

I don't think Democrats are likely to nominate Murphy for Senate. He's one of the more vulnerable incumbents in the House, and there were early reports that he wanted to join the Republicans.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/democrat-who-beat-allen-west-in-2012-discussed-flipping-to-gop-according-to-report/

That said, in a large swing state with 27 congressional districts, the Democratic party should be able to find a plausible candidate.

The current FL maps may be redrawn because of the redistricting court case and Murphy may get a more favorable seat as a result.
[/quote]Could it be done it time to change anything for 2014?

[Mister Mets]

There is an argument that the races are clustered so a small change in the national mood would be the difference between Republicans falling short of taking back the Senate, and Republicans having an advantage of several seats.

If the latter occurs, the party would probably be favored to keep the Senate in 2016, although recent Senate elections have demonstrated the party's ability to lose in states that shouldn't have been competitive.

The party would likely have mostly incumbents in 2016, with a few being particularly vulnerable. But an open race in Florida (if Rubio's on the national ticket) would be problematic, since the conservative base would seem happy nominating a poor candidate (Allan West.)

[Mister Mets]

I think the consensus is that unless the Republican Party runs a Reagan-like landslide this year, they will, at most have a 1 or 2 seat advantage coming into 2016.  My prediction is that if they keep the Senate in 2016, they are probably going to win the presidency by at least the margin that Obama or Clinton did.

That's not necessarily true.

Some poll numbers show Republicans having similar numbers in states like Alaska, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa. It's possible that a difference of one percent is the difference between Republicans falling short of the majority, or gaining three.