UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Blair]

I really can't see the Lib Dems doing it; everyone keeps mentioning that Whitney voted remain but so did many other tory seats of a similar nature (e.g Richmond Park) and I don't think there's a clear connection between voting Remain=Lib Dems, in the same way Leave= UKIP doesnt always happen

[Blair]

They won't- but the Greens and Labour should stand down

[Blair]

I was going to bet on Labour holding Copeland last week when the odds were really good, but they've been cut now.

I'd put money on Labour holds in both- with UKIP even coming 3rd in Stoke. Both campaigns have had a lot thrown at them, and Copeland has been turned in a referendum on the NHS. The biggest danger is the Lib-Dems surging in either seat, and costing Labour the seats.

On brexit it's worth noting that if every Remain voter in Stoke voted Lib Dem they'd win the seat

[Blair]

The interesting thing is that Copeland had a lot of Labour-Tory switchers, who were screaming that they were doing it as a protest against Corbyn. A seat that voted for Miliband in 2015 is generally (outside of metro areas) a sign that the traditional Labour vote will put up with anything, but with Corbyn there really is just a general feeling he needs to go.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/24/the-view-from-copeland-lifelong-labour-voters-want-corbyn-out

[Blair]

Momentum's contribution to the cause in Copeland was to... er... arrange a screening in the constituency of I, Daniel Blake. Further comment is entirely superfluous.

Tbh my thoughts watching that film where 'didn't Labour introduce the sanctions'

[Blair]

Tbh we might as well just have another leadership election after Conference; if Jeremy is still at 24-26% in the polls, and we spend a lot of time working on the bid we might as well go down in a hail of glory.

The problem with the 2016 leadership election was that it appeared a stitch up- the resignations/cutting off voters created the idea it was rigged- Owen Smith's head of data confirmed that as the main reason why they lost. Along with the fact the two 'unity' candidates- Owen Smith and Angela Eagle both had massive flaws+ the lack of the trade union support+ the fact it was rushed.

One interesting thing that is left out- Owen's campaign raised over £1 million which is unheard of in Labour leadership elections (the campaign was handing out rail tickets to phone bank stuff like confetti)

Basically TL:DR; we have a 20% chance of getting rid of him

[Blair]

I'm almost starting to wonder if a pre-election primary for a "prime ministerial candidate" couldnt be a way to dilute the Corbynites.

I see the reverse offered- let the PLP elect a leader in the commons, and the party elect the 'Chairman;

[Blair]

I'm almost starting to wonder if a pre-election primary for a "prime ministerial candidate" couldnt be a way to dilute the Corbynites.

The registered supporters scheme is already going in that direction, and they seem to be even more pro-Corbyn than the membership.  (Which suggests that they're not representative of Labour voters who aren't members.)

I would agree with Blair (the poster, not the ex-PM) that the restrictions on voting were interpreted as a stitch-up and damaged Smith.  But I also didn't think Smith was a brilliant candidate: you could tell a Corbyn supporter last summer that Corbyn wasn't the candidate to win a General Election, and they wouldn't dispute this but would just say that Smith wasn't either.

So, who would be a likely candidate if Corbyn were to be challenged again?  (As opposed to a normal election after a Corbyn resignation.)

Clive Lewis is imo the only person who could win- although I know a fair few moderates who would vote for Corbyn, as they see Clive as basically a younger, savvy Corbyn (something that is terrifying for the right of the party)

Other than that it would have to be Keir Starmer, Lisa Nandy or Dan Jarvis. I'd like Chukka or Hillary Benn to have a go- but both are off limits for the membership

[Blair]

Also worth noting we'll have another by-election after Gerald Kaufman passed away- I can't remember the name of the seat but it's a 16,000 Labour majority, but was only 6,000 back in 2010 due to the high lib dem vote.

If Labour lose this seat then we should just give up

[Blair]

It's a bit of a mixed bag of a constituency; solidly working class and frankly outright poor for the most part, but with a big student population and general university influence. Substantial Asian population though not to the extent as is often assumed. Gorton CLP is a notorious basket case and is currently suspended.

If the CLP is suspended does that allow the NEC to pick the candidate?

[Blair]

 JC would resign if he lost in 2020; when a 2016 autumn election looked likely last summer it would have been possible for him to remain, but if he somehow stays until 2020 and loses 40-50 seats (in the best case) he'd face a challenge within hours if he didn't step down

[Blair]

JC would resign if he lost in 2020; when a 2016 autumn election looked likely last summer it would have been possible for him to remain, but if he somehow stays until 2020 and loses 40-50 seats (in the best case) he'd face a challenge within hours if he didn't step down

Don't be so sure, his true believers will likely continue to blame Tony Blair for all of Labour's setbacks no matter what (It doesn't matter to them that he's been gone for 10 years)

Oh of course- tbh in copeland a lot of them are just calling the voters stupid, and saying they're not enlightened enough etc

But after Corbyn lost he'd be challenged- the trade unions wouldn't allow that (there's talk that the unions will be the ones who sit him down eventually)

[Blair]

George Galloway is running in the by-election; really doesn't help his reputation as a shameless self promoter, and general idiot.

Labour candidate looks likely to be Azhal Khan MEP- has the support of Unison/GMB and has a big pool of support. Although I've heard that the selection process is still getting people nervous as lots of the other candidates have their own block votes

[Blair]

I've been reading that the Lib-Dems are getting rather excited about the campaign; and whilst not expecting to win are expecting to cut Labour's majority down to 5,000-6,000.

IIRC the by-election is happening on the same day as the locals meaning that hopefully Burnham's campaign, along with the local machine can pull out a good result.

There's been virtually no coverage; and whilst it's completely different I've got a worry this by-election may be similar to Heywood and Middleton in 2014

[Blair]

I've been reading that the Lib-Dems are getting rather excited about the campaign; and whilst not expecting to win are expecting to cut Labour's majority down to 5,000-6,000.

Given the likely level of turnout and Galloway's candidacy, a majority in that ballpark wouldn't be a disaster.

A by-election in Liverpool Walton is likely to be held soon, is it not? The Lib Dems would be more than happy to repeat their performance in the last one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Walton_by-election,_1991

Leigh is another likely one. This is assuming that huge upsets aren't produced in the mayoral elections.

If we lost Manchester, or somehow Liverpool then well we'd up a creek without a paddle.

I heard Nutall was going to run in Leigh; in both by-elections it will be of more interest who wins the internal selection as the North-East is a stronghold for Corbyn+both Burnham/Rotheram voted against the motion of no-confidence last summer.

I think Leigh has a Labour majority of 10,000 or so, and Liverpool Walton has one of 27,000

[Blair]

Times article saying the Lib Dems expect to surge, and do better than they did in Whitney

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There's still the real danger that a lot of activists will be focused on the locals, and I'm not sure how much heavy lifting Burnham's campaign is doing in Gorton. But turnout should be higher than previous by-elections

[Blair]

Rumours Heidi Alexander may be resigning.

Her seat Lewisham East has a 17k labour majority, and is the one of the last CLPs where the right of the party are firmly in control.

[Blair]

A fun return to labours internal war.

Ofc the right will argue the NEC will stack the shortlist with Corbynites, but the most likely result is that the trade unions will throw their weight behind a councillor.

However parliamentary selections are filled with rumour/petty arguments/factional panics. Could easily be someone relatively unknown.

[Blair]

There's also the added complication that most members at selection meetings don't base their decisions off factional alignment as a rule...

Lewisham East has been hailed by a lot of people in Labour First as being the last bastion of the Labour Right in South London, so it's the best chance to see just how much organisational strength they have. (but yes I agree it's not as straight forward as right v left)

FWIW, the days are gone in Labour of candidates being openly Corbynsceptic. From the internal elections I've seen since last summer, you seen a lot of language about being a 'Broad church' and 'supporting the single market to let us be anti-austerity'.

The ideal candidate would have been Damien Egan; but he's just became mayor of Lewisham.

Al, what are the rules about AWS for by-elections?

[Blair]

Interestingly, Dan Jarvis doesn't seem to be resigning as MP, despite being elected as Sheffield regional mayor.

The NEC tried to pass a rule that would have forced him to resign as an MP (or withdraw) but virtually all of the Labour MPs/Councillors in the region kicked up a fuss, and Jarvis was allowed to remain an MP.

[Blair]

I read that the shortlist will be done by next week; so everything is moving quite quickly.

Everyone and their dog seems to be running; most likely because most people where hoping to stand in Lewisham West in 2020 when Jim stepped down (then 2017 happened).

As long as Claudia Webbe doesn’t get picked, I’ll be happy. I know some of the people standing and regardless of their various views on JC they’re all perfectly decent people.

Will be interesting to see how fair the shortlist is.

[Blair]

Out of curiosity, what makes a particular CLP more "left" or "right" wing traditionally? I wouldn't have thought the kind of person joining the party would vary much from one constituency to another.

Is it just down to the profile of who is an active member / the clique in charge?

From personal experience, yes to the second question.

As with all Labour politics, there's a lot of variation. Some 'right' wing CLP's in the North-East, and Midlands are much more from the old Right, and would be dominated by 5-10 people who've been there for years. These are the CLP's who nominated Andy Burnham in 2015, and then supported Corbyn.

On the other hand some of the London CLPs (like mine) tended to be dominated by Cllrs, MPs and the people who'd stayed in Labour throughout the last government, so they tended to be on the 'modernising right'.

The big thing you have to remember is that before 2015 even the biggest CLPs had only 400-500 members; under Corbyn some have doubled, or tripled. When you have such volatile membership changes (including old members rejoining) it's hard to work out the nature of CLPs.

 

[Blair]

Phyll Opuki-Gyimah, the current frontrunner drops out. She founded black Pride in the UK, and at least seemed very different (as a black working class Lesbian) to the usual crop of MPs. Wouldn't have minded her as an MP.

She was also backed by UNITE the union (who have a huge influence over both the NEC, and the leadership) so will be interesting to see what happens.

https://twitter.com/MsLadyPhyll/status/995638463897710592

[Blair]

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/corbyn-ally-claudia-webbe-favourite-for-lewisham-east-by-election-as-labour-drafts-its-first-ever-all-women-all-bame-shortlist_uk_5af9b396e4b09a94524ac7ea?fvn

Shortlist announced. They're all BAME women, and three of them are Councillors in Lewisham. The biggest surprise is that Claudia Webbe has been nominated; she's a Corbynite member of the NEC, with some questionable views.

All comes down to the selection meeting on Saturday (where we have no idea what will happen).

[Blair]

I'm aware this appeals to at best about 5 people but serious, and hilarious news from the Selection Meeting.

One of the front-runners, and Momentum backed Sakina Shiekh has allegedly been involved in another political party which ran candidates against Labour in 2016. Would mean that she should have been barred from standing (Labour have the very draconian rules about supporting other parties).

https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/997773908697845760

Edit: And she's gone. Been formally kicked off the shortlist by Jim Kennedy.

Edit 2: She's back on the shortlist after a U-Turn by the NEC. God this is a farce.