Rank seats in likeliness to flip

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Right now it'd go like this:

1 - MT
2-3 - OH-PA (tie)
4 - RI
5 - MO
6 - NJ
7 - TN
8 - VA
9 - MD
10 - MN
11 - WA
12 - AZ
13 - MI
14-33 - everything else (tie)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who was the last candidate to win PA without winning suburban Philly?

Well from the Atlas....Jimmy Carter in 1976

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In all fairness, based on calculations it is mathematically possible.

In 2000 Santorum won by 327,054 votes. In Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery counties combined, he won by 97,811 votes.

However, Kerry won the counties by almost the same amount, by 97,452 votes. If Ron Klink did the same, we'd get a Santorum victory by 131,791 votes. Still winnable, but only if he does as good as he did in Northeastern Pennsylvania and places like Erie county as he did in 2000. Likely? Probably not.