Florida will no longer be a Swing-State...

[RINO Tom]

Good.  It's one of the worst run states in America.  We don't need them deciding Federal elections.

Have you seen California?

What's the beef with CA? 

Has the strongest and most robust economy in the country, huge budget surplus, tiny covid infection rates.  If CA and FL were their own countries they'd be classified in entirely different leagues.

Their poverty rate, homeless rate and violent crime rate are above the national average, and it’s so expensive that it’s pricing out good, well meaning people out of even being able to live there.  This isn’t some right wing talking point, it’s backed up by statistics and by my VERY left leaning friends who live there complaining about it.  This is made all the more disappointing because a Democratic controlled state with all of the advantages you listed theoretically shouldn’t have those problems.

[David Hume]

Voter registration matters nothing compared to actual voting, or NH would be a red state and KY would be a blue one.

True, but change in voter registration does.

[Non Swing Voter]

Good.  It's one of the worst run states in America.  We don't need them deciding Federal elections.

Have you seen California?

What's the beef with CA? 

Has the strongest and most robust economy in the country, huge budget surplus, tiny covid infection rates.  If CA and FL were their own countries they'd be classified in entirely different leagues.

Their poverty rate, homeless rate and violent crime rate are above the national average, and it’s so expensive that it’s pricing out good, well meaning people out of even being able to live there.  This isn’t some right wing talking point, it’s backed up by statistics and by my VERY left leaning friends who live there complaining about it.  This is made all the more disappointing because a Democratic controlled state with all of the advantages you listed theoretically shouldn’t have those problems.

Right wing talking point stated by right winger. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Good.  It's one of the worst run states in America.  We don't need them deciding Federal elections.

Have you seen California?

What's the beef with CA? 

Has the strongest and most robust economy in the country, huge budget surplus, tiny covid infection rates.  If CA and FL were their own countries they'd be classified in entirely different leagues.

[Non Swing Voter]

Good.  It's one of the worst run states in America.  We don't need them deciding Federal elections.

Have you seen California?

What's the beef with CA? 

Has the strongest and most robust economy in the country, huge budget surplus, tiny covid infection rates.  If CA and FL were their own countries they'd be classified in entirely different leagues.

LOL @ "Cost of living adjusted."  The fact that cost of living is high just tells me that people want to live there.  The fact that cost of living is low in red states tells me people who settle live there.  Aren't you guys all about letting the free market decide? 

Part of the problem with blue states being "unaffordable" is that blue states have to funnel so much money to red states, which literally get almost half their budgets from the federal government.  We are literally running a welfare state that transfers money from blue states to red states.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Good.  It's one of the worst run states in America.  We don't need them deciding Federal elections.

Have you seen California?

What's the beef with CA? 

Has the strongest and most robust economy in the country, huge budget surplus, tiny covid infection rates.  If CA and FL were their own countries they'd be classified in entirely different leagues.

LOL @ "Cost of living adjusted."  The fact that cost of living is high just tells me that people want to live there.  The fact that cost of living is low in red states tells me people who settle live there.  Aren't you guys all about letting the free market decide? 

Part of the problem with blue states being "unaffordable" is that blue states have to funnel so much money to red states, which literally get almost half their budgets from the federal government.  We are literally running a welfare state that transfers money from blue states to red states.

Wrong the reason red states are more affordable is cause they don’t have extremely stupid zoning laws which limits housing supply . Also Texas and Florida grew faster than California over the past decade so that point is completely false as well

[Non Swing Voter]

Good.  It's one of the worst run states in America.  We don't need them deciding Federal elections.

Have you seen California?

What's the beef with CA? 

Has the strongest and most robust economy in the country, huge budget surplus, tiny covid infection rates.  If CA and FL were their own countries they'd be classified in entirely different leagues.

LOL @ "Cost of living adjusted."  The fact that cost of living is high just tells me that people want to live there.  The fact that cost of living is low in red states tells me people who settle live there.  Aren't you guys all about letting the free market decide? 

Part of the problem with blue states being "unaffordable" is that blue states have to funnel so much money to red states, which literally get almost half their budgets from the federal government.  We are literally running a welfare state that transfers money from blue states to red states.

Wrong the reason red states are more affordable is cause they don’t have extremely stupid zoning laws which limits housing supply . Also Texas and Florida grew faster than California over the past decade so that point is completely false as well

CSB, if red states are doing so well, why don't they pay their fair share in taxes?  why are they such a small percentage of the GDP relative to size?  Why are blue counties 70%+ of the US GDP?

Why do red states have such low life expectancies?  Why is obesity rampant in red states?  If they are so well run.  But yeah, tell me more about zoning laws.

[EastwoodS]

Voter registration matters nothing compared to actual voting, or NH would be a red state and KY would be a blue one.

Kentucky Democrats aren’t real Democrats

[Schiff for Senate]

Voter registration matters nothing compared to actual voting, or NH would be a red state and KY would be a blue one.

Kentucky Democrats aren’t real Democrats

Of course, and KY is a titanium red state. Elliott County gave Trump 75% but is still only 10% registered Republican (maybe more like 15% now). But that's my point - voter registration can be very misleading, as some 'Democrats' may be Republicans in practice, and vice versa. Actual voting is what matters. Otherwise Elliott would be a very blue county, not a very red one like it is in real life.

[RINO Tom]

Good.  It's one of the worst run states in America.  We don't need them deciding Federal elections.

Have you seen California?

What's the beef with CA? 

Has the strongest and most robust economy in the country, huge budget surplus, tiny covid infection rates.  If CA and FL were their own countries they'd be classified in entirely different leagues.

Their poverty rate, homeless rate and violent crime rate are above the national average, and it’s so expensive that it’s pricing out good, well meaning people out of even being able to live there.  This isn’t some right wing talking point, it’s backed up by statistics and by my VERY left leaning friends who live there complaining about it.  This is made all the more disappointing because a Democratic controlled state with all of the advantages you listed theoretically shouldn’t have those problems.

Right wing talking point stated by right winger. 

This is hardly a response.  California is a great state, hence why my aforementioned friends made it a point to move there.  It also has a lot of problems, which shouldn’t be as bad as they are given one party (who claims to stand for equality) has dominant control of the government.

That’s not a talking point, it’s a painfully obvious observation that a lot of (normal) Democrats would acknowledge.

[MarkD]

"Florida will no longer be a Swing-State ... if current trends continue."

But current trends do not always continue. Things change, such as the FL Dem Party getting more organized than it currently is, with new leadership.

[Chips]

The fact Florida voted Republican by more than 3 points in a year where the Democratic candidate got 300+ EV shows it already isnt a swing state.

I'd still consider any state within less than five points a swing state. State results don't exactly shift with the national popular vote. I could see a Republican winning 2024 nationally and winning Florida by less than Trump under certain circumstances.

[Non Swing Voter]

"Florida will no longer be a Swing-State ... if current trends continue."

But current trends do not always continue. Things change, such as the FL Dem Party getting more organized than it currently is, with new leadership.

Yeah but why focus on FL when TX is a far bigger prize and the trendiness are much more favorable?

[Roll Roons]

"Florida will no longer be a Swing-State ... if current trends continue."

But current trends do not always continue. Things change, such as the FL Dem Party getting more organized than it currently is, with new leadership.

Yeah but why focus on FL when TX is a far bigger prize and the trendiness are much more favorable?

Because FL still has 30 Electoral Votes and two Senate seats up for grabs?

[Non Swing Voter]

"Florida will no longer be a Swing-State ... if current trends continue."

But current trends do not always continue. Things change, such as the FL Dem Party getting more organized than it currently is, with new leadership.

Yeah but why focus on FL when TX is a far bigger prize and the trendiness are much more favorable?

Because FL still has 30 Electoral Votes and two Senate seats up for grabs?

And there are 508 electoral votes elsewhere?  what's the point?  Each party has limited resources and should use them strategically.  FL is going the opposite way.  It's a fairly poorly educated state with a ton of old people.  It's not what the Dem coalition is moving towards (except for the fact that it's diverse but the diversity is based on groups that are less Dem friendly than other states).

[Roll Roons]

"Florida will no longer be a Swing-State ... if current trends continue."

But current trends do not always continue. Things change, such as the FL Dem Party getting more organized than it currently is, with new leadership.

Yeah but why focus on FL when TX is a far bigger prize and the trendiness are much more favorable?

Because FL still has 30 Electoral Votes and two Senate seats up for grabs?

And there are 508 electoral votes elsewhere?  what's the point?  Each party has limited resources and should use them strategically.  FL is going the opposite way.  It's a fairly poorly educated state with a ton of old people.  It's not what the Dem coalition is moving towards (except for the fact that it's diverse but the diversity is based on groups that are less Dem friendly than other states).

It's more about the Senate. I have a hard time seeing Democrats get more than 50 Senate seats without at least one from Florida.

[Non Swing Voter]

"Florida will no longer be a Swing-State ... if current trends continue."

But current trends do not always continue. Things change, such as the FL Dem Party getting more organized than it currently is, with new leadership.

Yeah but why focus on FL when TX is a far bigger prize and the trendiness are much more favorable?

Because FL still has 30 Electoral Votes and two Senate seats up for grabs?

And there are 508 electoral votes elsewhere?  what's the point?  Each party has limited resources and should use them strategically.  FL is going the opposite way.  It's a fairly poorly educated state with a ton of old people.  It's not what the Dem coalition is moving towards (except for the fact that it's diverse but the diversity is based on groups that are less Dem friendly than other states).

It's more about the Senate. I have a hard time seeing Democrats get more than 50 Senate seats without at least one from Florida.

Didn't Biden win 25 states in the last election?  They could easily net another seat or two next cycle by holding their seats and winning PA/WI. 

Plus, they are loaning that Maine Senate seat right now.  The GOP can't hold onto that after Susan Collins retires.

[Non Swing Voter]

For the Senate long term, Dems need to solidify their gains in AZ and hold the NE + solidify PA (which is more than doable).

West/SW + Northeast = 40 senators.

(WA, OR, CA, HI, NV, AZ, NM, CO + ME, NH, VT, RI, CT, MA, NY, NJ, MD, DE, VA, PA).

Then add very urban states (IL, GA, MN) = 6 senators.

Then they need to compete elsewhere (MI, WI, NC) = 6 senators.

If it's a judgment call between TX and FL they should devote more resources to TX long term.

The above isn't "fair" because the low hanging 46 senators already gets Dems to 276 electoral votes, which shows how skewed the senate is to Republicans, but it's certainly doable for Dems to get over 50.

[Roll Roons]

For the Senate long term, Dems need to solidify their gains in AZ and hold the NE + solidify PA (which is more than doable).

West/SW + Northeast = 40 senators.

(WA, OR, CA, HI, NV, AZ, NM, CO + ME, NH, VT, RI, CT, MA, NY, NJ, MD, DE, VA).

Then add very urban states (IL, GA, MN) = 6 senators.

Then they need to compete elsewhere (MI, WI, NC) = 6 senators.

If it's a judgment call between TX and FL they should devote more resources to TX long term.

The above isn't "fair" because the low hanging 46 senators already gets Dems to 276 electoral votes, which shows how skewed the senate is to Republicans, but it's certainly doable for Dems to get over 50.

The first group actually only accounts for 38 senators, unless you forgot to include PA.

[Non Swing Voter]

For the Senate long term, Dems need to solidify their gains in AZ and hold the NE + solidify PA (which is more than doable).

West/SW + Northeast = 40 senators.

(WA, OR, CA, HI, NV, AZ, NM, CO + ME, NH, VT, RI, CT, MA, NY, NJ, MD, DE, VA).

Then add very urban states (IL, GA, MN) = 6 senators.

Then they need to compete elsewhere (MI, WI, NC) = 6 senators.

If it's a judgment call between TX and FL they should devote more resources to TX long term.

The above isn't "fair" because the low hanging 46 senators already gets Dems to 276 electoral votes, which shows how skewed the senate is to Republicans, but it's certainly doable for Dems to get over 50.

The first group actually only accounts for 38 senators, unless you forgot to include PA.

I did forget to include PA.  I will add that in thank you.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is a visual of the senate map I think Dems should focus on.  Blue should be their base states going forward.  Red are states where they should be competitive.  I think over time GA should be converted to blue.  And I could see Alaska becoming red.

[TodayJunior]

This is a visual of the senate map I think Dems should focus on.  Blue should be their base states going forward.  Red are states where they should be competitive.  I think over time GA should be converted to blue.  And I could see Alaska becoming red.

What about the states in gray that still have Dem seats? Ohio and Montana certainly come to mind. I’d agree WV is gone with or without Manchin. It would be good to have one or two backups.

[Roll Roons]

This is a visual of the senate map I think Dems should focus on.  Blue should be their base states going forward.  Red are states where they should be competitive.  I think over time GA should be converted to blue.  And I could see Alaska becoming red.

What about the states in gray that still have Dem seats? Ohio and Montana certainly come to mind. I’d agree WV is gone with or without Manchin. It would be good to have one or two backups.

Also just looking at the states in blue, several are still theoretically winnable for the GOP (AZ, NV, PA, arguably ME, MN and NH) and others may become more competitive over time.

[All Along The Watchtower]

That depends heavily on how Trumpist the Republican Party continues to be.