2020 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread

[Virginiá]

I really think that Kennedy is going to help kill gerrymandering.

Even if he doesn't, Ohio has an initiative process that Democrats will probably attempt to use (again) if they can't win OH in 2018.

[Virginiá]

Tim Walz said he was "seriously considering" running for Governor at a town hall today.

He should stay in the House, just for the sake of holding down the seat for Democrats.

I would think holding the Governorship is more important than one House seat.

It really depends on a variety of factors. In this case, Walz seems nervous about losing his seat in 2018 considering he just barely scraped by last November. If he vacates his seat, it will be easier for Republicans to pick it up. I feel like MN has plenty of other decent candidates that could run instead, and Walz would be needed more in the House if that was the case.

The House is the Democrats only real shot at being a check on Trump/Republicans in 2019+, so we really can't afford to lose that seat. Odds are he will have a better year in 2018, given the dynamics of midterms.

[Virginiá]

Select overview of races
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DKos: Republicans could see catastrophic losses in 2018's gubernatorial races if Trump sparks a backlash

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/3/8/1638381/-Republicans-could-see-catastrophic-losses-in-2018-s-gubernatorial-races-if-Trump-sparks-a-backlash

[Virginiá]

Done

[Virginiá]

The NC state legislature is probably so gerrymandered that a D+7 lead will not be enough to flip it. The dubious claims made about gerrymandering making it extremely hard for Dems flipping the US House, they are largely applicable in regards to NC's state legislature.

The gerrymanders of VA and WI have not been holding out in these special legislative elections, so there is a good chance the Dems might be able to break them. I think NC voters have just had it with the GOP

I'm really curious what a D+7 result would do to the legislature, but I think I have to agree with TimTurner in that flipping it with just D+7 doesn't seem possible. There is also precedent for this. Michigan's state House didn't flip in 2012 even with an almost D+8 popular vote win. Republicans walked away with a comfortable if not slimmer majority. The only difference between an R+8 pv in 2010 and a D+8 win in 2012 in Michigan was Democrats gaining 4 seats. That's literally all they got with wave-like numbers.

To use a more recent example, in Virginia 2017, Democrats flipped only one or two Trump seats with a 9 point PV win (skewed maybe by more seats w/o GOP candidates). Granted, Democrats flipped 15 seats, but almost all of them were Clinton seats. In order to flip the NC GA, Democrats would have to flip dozens of Trump seats. It's hard to see that happening, tbh.