2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[Blackacre]

Time to take a stab at this, in tandem with my Senate ratings.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (4)
OR, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
CO, MN, WI, MI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
GA, NV

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (5)
AK, CT, RI, IA, OH

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
FL, AZ

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (3)
KS, OK, VT

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, TN, SC

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, NE, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 21 Governorships
Republicans: 24 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+7.4, R-6.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+7.3, R-6.8
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+7.5, R-7.0
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+2, D-1

two quick notes: one, tossup is yellow here because of independents in KS and AK which get green. Second, I am on principle opposed to moving any race into Safe that is currently held by the party that I consider the underdog. This is why IL and NM, for instance, will never go above Likely D.

edit: one party is gaining more than the other is losing because of Alaska. It is currently held by an independent who I am COMPLETELY writing off at this juncture

[Blackacre]

FL is tilt D and SD, ID, and OK are competetive

Im keeping FL at Tilt R because Im kinda bullish on FL Dems messing up the nomination. FL, OK, and a couple other states are primary-dependent.

OK is Leans R, which is in what I understand to be the competitive window. SD at Likely R also seems about right for now. I dont really see why ID is competitive enough to move into Likely, but I'll at least give it the "safe with an asterisk" rating along with MA and WY. Thanks!

[Blackacre]

Time for an update and an adjustment.

First the adjustments. Connecticut moves to Tilt D because Malloy isn’t on the ballot and Lamont is strong. Rhode Island, however, stays a pure tossup. Minnesota moves to Likely D, due to a very strong state Democratic Party and the state’s natural leanings. Colorado will follow suit due to its leanings and Hickenlooper’s popularity. In exchange, however, Oregon moves from Likely D to Lean. Also Vermont goes to Likely R. I jumped the gun on Scott because of, well, guns, but I should have waited for more info.

The update, IE changes based on new data, is in a single state. Thanks to Emerson, Tennessee moves from Likely R all the way to Tilt R.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, WI, MI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
CT, GA, NV

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
AK, RI, IA, OH

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
TN, FL, AZ

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
KS, OK

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, VT, SC

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, NE, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 22 Governorships
Republicans: 24 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: Coming tonight
Leans-only Expected Result: Coming tonight
Tilts-only Expected Result: Coming tonight
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

[Blackacre]

Another update so soon? Well, dfwlibertylover brought Nebraska to my attention as a competitive state, so it goes from Safe R to Likely.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, WI, MI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
CT, GA, NV

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
AK, RI, IA, OH

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
TN, FL, AZ

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
KS, OK

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (6)
NH, MD, SD, VT, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (6)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 22 Governorships
Republicans: 24 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+7.9, R-7.4
Leans-only Expected Result: D+7.8, R-7.3
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8, R-7.5
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

[Blackacre]

I did this kind of thing in the 2018 Senate Rankings thread (link here) because it was fun, so here are five distinct scenarios for the the 2018 Midterms at the Gubernatorial level based on my current rankings! They're meant to correlate with the scenarios in the other thread.

edit: updated to reflect my August 15th Rankings, available in my signature.

Scenario 1: LimoLiberal Was Right

Aside from a horrendous performance at the Congressional level, Democrats also had a bad night because of the golden opportunity they blew in the states. So many opportunities to regain what they lost in 2010 and 2014, but as the Blue Wave fizzled out, their opportunities slipped away, one by one. It was a long and cruel night. Despite a Democratic pickup in New Mexico, the GOP actually made a net gain and increased their strangehold on state governments. Alaska went back into their hands, they made gains in Oregon, Cordray went down in flames, freaking Scott Walker survived, and to top it all off, another freaking Johnson won as a midwestern Republican. As Wisconsinites can tell you, Johnsonitis is a disease and Minnesota has it now. Even liberal New England was left without a single Democratic Governor. The only way it could have been worse is if Rauner survived too, but Pritzker's win was surprisingly narrow.

Dreams of protecting voting rights, restoring union power, resisting Trump, and stopping another decade of GOP gerrymandering all died in a single night.


TL;DR: The parties split the Likely Democratic states; everything Lean D or lower goes Republican.

Scenario 2: Democratic Disappointment

Democrats made a net gain of governors, but this was one of many hollow victories in a rough night. I mean, the GOP’s slim House majority of 4 will make governing impossible, and Democrats did well in the Senate given the horrible map, but come on. They had so many opportunities to take seats, and they ended up with only 2 more than they started with. New England had only a single Democratic Governor. Stacy Abrams came up just short. FL Dems FL Dem’d. The GOP routed in Nevada. Even Walker survived; that one really hurt. But they did technically walk away with a gain, thanks to states they never had any business giving up like New Mexico and Michigan and Maine. Oh well. All Democrats could do now is lick their wounds and get ready for the next battle.


TL;DR: The parties split the Leans Democratic states, everything Tilt D or lower goes Republican.

Scenario 3: A Return to Par

When historians look back and ask if 2018 was a good night for Democrats, the answer will be a resounding Yes, and also No. The battle for the House and Senate were both extremely close, and the Gubernatorial front was similarly ambiguous. For while Democrats walked away with an impressive net gain of 8 seats, they did not walk away with more Governor’s Mansions than the Republicans. They did, however, go from a massive deficit to an exact tie with the GOP, a strange consolation that's neither victory or moral defeat. A few key races that would have put them over the top slipped through their fingers. Tribalism worked for the dominant parties in Connecticut and Oklahoma, but not in Rhode Island and Kansas. Elsewhere, Arizona had too many split ticketers to go fully blue, and FL Dems did what they do best. Finally, Bill Walker’s presence on the ballot ultimately screwed over Mark Begich.

But despite the losses, there were still legit gains to be celebrated. 9 GOP-Held governorships changes hands, and 5 of them were in the Midwest. Down with Walker, up with Cordray!! Gains in blue Maine, Nevada, and New Mexico were nice too, but the crowning achievement came down South: Stacey Abrams became the first African American woman governor-elect in the nation’s history.


TL;DR: The parties win everything they’re favored in and split the tossups.

Scenario 4: The Wave Comes Through

Even the most optimistic Democrats in January 2017 wouldn’t have expected Dems to hit 30, and the naysayers and Republicans remain in shock. Pelosi and Schumer are celebrating, sure, but the Blue Wave was felt most acutely in the states. Every vulnerable Democratic seat stayed firm, and GOP losses transcended regional differences. Not even Florida Dems could mess up the wave! The Midwest swung left wholesale, dragging Walker down to heck where he belongs. Tennessee elected Karl Dean along with Bredesen. Begich pulled through in Alaska. But the most significant victory here was the Democratic wins in ruby-red Oklahoma and Kansas, which might have been GOP holds if they didn't shoot themselves in the foot on primary day.

With a mandate in the states, newly empowered Democrats got to work on issues from education and taxes to voting rights and labor rights. And it’s safe to say the 2022-2032 House map won’t be nearly as bad for Democrats.


TL;DR: The parties split the Leans Republican states, everything Tilt R or higher goes Democratic.

Scenario 5: Nut

The Republican Party spent 8 years building up its power in Congress and in the states. It was a lot of work for a very large payoff. However, it evidently wasn’t built to last. Everything the GOP worked so hard to achieve vanished overnight. Their state legislative majorities, their bench of candidates, their ability to gerrymander. Everything they had been counting on, in one night, disappeared.

As for the Democrats. They more than doubled their number of governors.

It happened everywhere. No category of states or governors were completely safe from the Blue Tsunami. The newly Republican Midwest washed the red off its hands completely. The Ruby-Red South? There’s shades of blue now. Every state south of Maryland that touches the Atlantic now has a Democratic governor. The Republican-friendly Southwest got a lot less friendly, with Democratic pickups in New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. Not Texas, though Sen.-elect Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) is enough to satisfy Texas Dems for now. In the heavily Republican plains states was the biggest bloodbath of all, with Democratic gains in all four applicable red states directly north of Texas, plus Alaska. The gain in NE is important for redistricting, as it could make NE-02 more Democratic later.

It was a night beyond the wildest hopes and dreams of all but the most hackish Democrats. (And dfwlibertylover) Today, they celebrate. But come January, it will be time to put their 18 new governors and hundreds upon hundreds of new state legislators to work on every liberal priority under the sun.


TL;DR: The parties split the Likely Republican states, everything Leans R or higher goes Democratic.

[Blackacre]

Alright, we just had a crop of primaries, so it's time for some updates! Because governor whatshisface conceded to Kobach, Kansas moves from Leans Republican to aPure Tossup. On the other side of things, Vermont moves to Safe R now that Phil Scott easily won renomination, showing that he was never in any electoral trouble.

One more thing. Connecticut. Connecticut will tentatively move to Leans D. The GOP nominee seems bad and Ned Lamont is a legend but the state is going against the national environment, so this was a tricky call to make. However, though it's a weak lean, candidate strength still matters, so while Rhode Island remains tossup, Connecticut seems to settle slightly more firmly in Democrats' hands.

And.... that's it. Minnesota and Wisconsin are both where I want them to be even in light of primary results, so we're good!

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, WI, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
GA, NV

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (5)
AK, RI, IA, OH, KS

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
TN, FL, AZ

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
OK

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 22 Governorships
Republicans: 23 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.9, R-8.1
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

Democrats' position improved by quite a bit. This is especially so in the Tilts-only model, which considers anything out of the Tilts window to be safe. This algorithm thinks Democrats just got 90% of a governor's mansion just from the results of the primaries!

[Blackacre]

Just a quick correction to my last update: Tennessee moves into the Leans Republican column.

Also, I'll be switching how the Safe races are listed. From now on, at least here, races in italics are ones I feel will never become competitive, while the ones without italics might rejoin the map at a future date.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, WI, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
GA, NV

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (5)
AK, RI, IA, OH, KS

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
FL, AZ

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
TN, OK

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 22 Governorships
Republicans: 23 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.0, R-7.5
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.0, R-7.5
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.5, R-8.0
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

Wyoming is liable to leans the Safe delegation if Freiss wins on Tuesday. That is all.

[Blackacre]

Okay, it's time for a big update!

On the one hand, Arizona and Oklahoma move to Tossup on account of the matchups being pretty good for Democrats. Garcia won in Arizona, and Stitt won in Oklahoma. On the other hand, Florida moves to Leans R due to Graham losing the primary.

So now we have seven tossups. Holy Stitt. Just for the sake of cleaning up the category, I'll move two races out of the tossup column that I don't actually think are tossups: Iowa, with its massive special election swings towards Democrats and its elasticity, will move to Tilts Democratic. Rhode Island, with its unpopular Democratic governor, moves to Tilts Republican.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, WI, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
GA, NV, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (5)
AK, OH, KS, OK, AZ

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
RI

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
TN, FL

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.7, R-8.2
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

[Blackacre]

Okay, it's time for a big update!

On the one hand, Arizona and Oklahoma move to Tossup on account of the matchups being pretty good for Democrats. Garcia won in Arizona, and Stitt won in Oklahoma. On the other hand, Florida moves to Leans R due to Graham losing the primary.

So now we have seven tossups. Holy Stitt. Just for the sake of cleaning up the category, I'll move two races out of the tossup column that I don't actually think are tossups: Iowa, with its massive special election swings towards Democrats and its elasticity, will move to Tilts Democratic. Rhode Island, with its unpopular Democratic governor, moves to Tilts Republican.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, WI, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
GA, NV, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (5)
AK, OH, KS, OK, AZ

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
RI

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
TN, FL

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.7, R-8.2
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

Oklahoma more likely to flip than Florida? Rhode Island at Tilt R? Lmao wtf is this

A poster putting way too much emphasis on percieved candidate quality.

I am of the opinion that candidate quality matters heavily in gubernatorial races...

[Blackacre]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (7)
AL, TX, AR, WY, ID, MA, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 6 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.7
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.7
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.2
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

Also I'm not 100% sure what to make of the fact that the GOP only has one race that tilts their way and one that leans their way, but 5 races that are likely to be in their column and 7 that are Safe. We could see some of those likely races enter the Leans window later, or we could be already near the ceiling of Democratic performance in these elections

[Blackacre]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

This list is a joke! The fact that you think Iowa is more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than WISCONSIN (when Iowa is REDDER than Wisconsin, voted for Trump at a much higher margin, has much less urbanization than Wisconsin, and has 2 Republican U.S. senators) pretty much discredits your entire list. WI is a state that has had three seats flipped this year and a Trump approval rating of only 41 percent (compared to Iowa's 45 percent), while there is virtually no proof of a blue wave occurring in Iowa, yet you think Iowa will lean more Democratic just because WI's most unpopular/polarized incumbent has some sort of "incumbency advantage."

I'm not saying Walker will win, for sure, but thinking Iowa tilts more D in this election than WI is very comical. Evers obviously has more of an advantage than Hubbell and is leading in the polls thus far. Hubbell hasn't lead in any.

Okay. Okay okay okay.

First of all, I don't have Iowa as more Democratic than Wisconsin. I have them at the same rating: Tilts D. Both of them are more likely than not to elect a Democratic governor. Both are less likely than Michigan to do the same, however. Actually, if you read my analysis I said that Wisconsin is somewhere between Iowa and Michigan, which means that, gun to my head, I do believe Wisconsin is more likely to go D than Iowa, mainly on account of the strength of Evers as a candidate.

Second, I don't buy the notion that Iowa is a redder state. It's more elastic. It went for Trump harder, sure, but both states voted for Obama twice, and while Wisconsin had some strong special elections, Iowa has had an even larger swing in its direction in the special elections. Take a look, it's insane! That's basically the sole reason I'm giving Ds an advantage in Iowa, because of how much the electorate snapped to the Ds in special elections. It happened in Wisconsin too, but to a lesser extent. There is ABSOLUTELY a blue wave in Iowa right now, it's not exactly Florida or Connecticut in that regard.

As to your argument about Iowa having 2 Republican senators, well, both states had GOP wins in 2010 and 2014. Wisconsin's D senator is a product of luck more than anything else; it's the state that had a senate election in the D-friendly 2012.

My point is, calm down. If you have Iowa as likely r and Wisconsin as likely d, that's your opinion. I'm sharing mine. We can discuss, debate, and compare/contrast, but I'd appreciate it if you didn't go for the throat next time

[Blackacre]

So... I made some mistakes with my last rating updates that I'm going to have to fix now.

First, Wisconsin. Grouping it with Michigan and Connecticut isn't all that fair, because Walker actually has a legitimate shot. He's still the underdog against Evers, however. Iowa is Tilts Democratic because the popular Republican incumbent is fighting powerful headwinds. Michigan is Leans Democratic because the headwinds are still there (if not as strong as in Iowa) but the race is an open seat. Wisconsin is somewhere in between the two, but incumbency advantage is a hell of a drug so I'm going to err on the side of grouping it with Iowa rather than Michigan. Hence, it's Tilts D.

Second, Rhode Island. What was I thinking? This is a tossup, nothing less, and nothing more. Third, while I have my strong biases toward the Democratic candidate in Alaska, I have to admit that the vote splitting is helping the GOP. So I'm moving that one to Tilts Republican.

Finally, Florida. I was really down on Gillum, but after hearing the cases made in his favor by friends, I understand why he isn't considered just FL Dems throwing the race away. So I'll move the race to tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.3, R-7.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

This list is a joke! The fact that you think Iowa is more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than WISCONSIN (when Iowa is REDDER than Wisconsin, voted for Trump at a much higher margin, has much less urbanization than Wisconsin, and has 2 Republican U.S. senators) pretty much discredits your entire list. WI is a state that has had three seats flipped this year and a Trump approval rating of only 41 percent (compared to Iowa's 45 percent), while there is virtually no proof of a blue wave occurring in Iowa, yet you think Iowa will lean more Democratic just because WI's most unpopular/polarized incumbent has some sort of "incumbency advantage."

I'm not saying Walker will win, for sure, but thinking Iowa tilts more D in this election than WI is very comical. Evers obviously has more of an advantage than Hubbell and is leading in the polls thus far. Hubbell hasn't lead in any.

Okay. Okay okay okay.

First of all, I don't have Iowa as more Democratic than Wisconsin. I have them at the same rating: Tilts D. Both of them are more likely than not to elect a Democratic governor. Both are less likely than Michigan to do the same, however. Actually, if you read my analysis I said that Wisconsin is somewhere between Iowa and Michigan, which means that, gun to my head, I do believe Wisconsin is more likely to go D than Iowa, mainly on account of the strength of Evers as a candidate.

Second, I don't buy the notion that Iowa is a redder state. It's more elastic. It went for Trump harder, sure, but both states voted for Obama twice, and while Wisconsin had some strong special elections, Iowa has had an even larger swing in its direction in the special elections. Take a look, it's insane! That's basically the sole reason I'm giving Ds an advantage in Iowa, because of how much the electorate snapped to the Ds in special elections. It happened in Wisconsin too, but to a lesser extent. There is ABSOLUTELY a blue wave in Iowa right now, it's not exactly Florida or Connecticut in that regard.

As to your argument about Iowa having 2 Republican senators, well, both states had GOP wins in 2010 and 2014. Wisconsin's D senator is a product of luck more than anything else; it's the state that had a senate election in the D-friendly 2012.

My point is, calm down. If you have Iowa as likely r and Wisconsin as likely d, that's your opinion. I'm sharing mine. We can discuss, debate, and compare/contrast, but I'd appreciate it if you didn't go for the throat next time

I'm very sorry. I did come off as a little harsh. My apologies. I realized that I made a mistake once Zaybay clarified, and now that you've clarified your stance, it makes a lot more sense now.

I wasn't trying to go down your throat, I just worded it in a way in which it did seem that way. I'm a nice person, I promise. You can always message me anytime.

I really appreciate that! I'm sorry we had to start off on the wrong foot like this, but hey, first impressions aren't everything, right? Feel free to message me anytime as well

[Blackacre]

I'm sorry, I can't leave this thread alone!! But I figure I could take a deeper dive into how I come to the conclusions that I do, and just for fun, mix a few things around and see what we get

Basically, there are 5 factors that determine how I rate a race:

• A state's partisan lean in statewide elections, which is different from a Presidential vote.
• The broader political environment in the state. Or in other words: how hard is the Blue Wave hitting there?
• What's the sitting governor up to? Is it an open seat or is there an incumbent running, and if the latter, is the incumbent running? If the incumbent isn't running, there is no additional info for this category that the above point doesn't already cover.
• What's the difference in quality between the candidates?
• What do the polls say? Especially at this point in the cycle, this doesn't count as much as the other categories. It serves more as a recalibration, questioning how much the above four factors weigh into the result.

For an example of this multi-step process in action, let's take a look at two races that have the same rating (Tossup) but different factors under the hood: Rhode Island and Oklahoma. Let's do Rhode Island first.

• Rhode Island is super elastic and arguably GOP-leaning in gubernatorial races. 2014 was the first time RI voters elected a Democratic Governor since 1994, and if you discount Sundlun because he was elected after his GOP predecessor proved insanely corrupt, the freshly broken streak goes back to 1984. Then again, the streak WAS just broken -- in 2014 of all years. No advantage.
• There was one special election in Rhode Island that I could find. Not strong enough of a data point, so we're using the national political environment, which is very solid for Democrats. Moderate Democratic advantage.
• The incumbent Democratic governor is running for re-election, giving Dems an incumbency advantage. However, that's offset by her middling and even slightly negative approvals. 44/46 is pretty bad. This is actually my only tossup with an incumbent on the ticket, but Raimondo is not exactly strong. Slight Republican advantage.
• Assuming Allan Fung wins the chance for a rematch, this one is tricky. He lost to Raimondo before, but I've heard from a lot of people that he's actually pretty decent, if nothing outstanding. Raimondo... we've gone over her already. Slight Republican advantage.
• The last poll was... when, exactly? No advantage.

Add that all together and you have two factors that slightly work in the GOP's favor and one that works more so in the Democrats' favor. Overall, it's a tossup. Now let's look at Oklahoma.

• Oklahoma has gone back and forth between Democratic and Republican governors in the past... but let's not kid ourselves, this is an extremely red state. Fallin won by >20 points and almost 15 points in her two victories, and the Dem win in 2002 was a fluke based on conservative vote splitting. This is one of the most Republican states in the union, and it shows. Overwhelming Republican Advantage
• Special elections have been BRUTAL for Republicans in Oklahoma, with a 32 point average leftward swing over 8 specials. Gov. Fallin is also very unpopular, there were a lot of corruption scandals that caused those specials in the first place, and there were teacher protests. The Blue Wave is hitting Oklahoma HARD. Strong Democratic Advantage.
• The incumbent is not on the ballot. Fallin's unpopularity is accounted for above. No Advantage.
• Edmonson was hyped well before any special elections or protests. He's apparently amazing. Stitt is also seen as a really bad choice for the Oklahoma GOP. About as big a differential as you could get without major scandals. Strong Democratic Advantage.
• There was one poll, and it showed a race within 1 point. No Advantage.

With Oklahoma, almost everything working here is working strongly to the Democrats' advantage. However, the state's partisan lean is so strong that it cancels out with everything else, leaving us with a tossup. The reason why I listed this though is to show something interesting: you could exchange some of these variables and get radically different ratings for the two states. For instance, switch the special election performances between Rhode Island and Oklahoma, and they'd become Likely D and Likely R, respectively, though maybe you could make the case that they'd be Leans instead.

And so this calculus goes into every state. Georgia has seen dour results for Democrats in special elections, but Democrats put up a good fight in 2014 and it trended D in 2012 and 2016, plus the seat is open and Abrams is a much stronger candidate than Kemp, adding up to a Tilts D race. Alaska has been known to be purple and weird in state races and the national environment is strong, but Walker's presence inherently saps Begich's candidate quality and it's still a red state, so it Tilts R here. And Ohio... oh man, Ohio. The national environment is strong for Democrats, but Ohio goes in with a bit of a red tinge at the state and federal level. The seat is open and candidate quality is strong on both ends. Without any recent polling to work with, this is as pure a tossup as we can get.

Well, that's all. Hopefully somebody enjoyed this nonsense of mine xD

[Blackacre]

Alright, another update!

First up is a pair of states, New Hampshire and Maine. I was way too bullish on both states, and I realized this mistake by looking at the states through the four part examination above. New Hampshire still has a popular Republican Governor, but look at the special elections there. There’s been a lot, and they all show the blue wave is hitting it pretty hard. So Sununu gets downgraded to Leans Republican. Meanwhile in Maine, while the medicaid expansion vote indicates a promising national environment, even when averaged with the only other special, which was less positive for Dems, it remains a very strange and independent-friendly state and there isn’t IRV in state races yet. Hence, it goes from Likely Democratic to Lean, within the competitive window.

I have another adjustment to make in Connecticut, but for a different reason. There’s been lots of quality polls (read: not Gravis) in the state, and they’re showing Lamont with a double-digit lead. That’s enough for me to move the state to Likely Democratic, out of the Leans window. The GOP seems to have really blown this opportunity. Now if only they did the same in Massachusetts...

Finally, Massachusetts until now was in the “potentially might later become competitive” category of the Safe Republican rating. Now that Baker has defeated Lively, the only condition for this race to leave the Safe R rating is gone.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, CT, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, MI, ME

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (4)
GA, NV, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (6)
RI, OH, KS, OK, AZ, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
NH, TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (4)
MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (7)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA ID, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 23 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 6 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.5, R-7.9
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.6, R-8.0
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.2
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+16, R-15
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

The Democrats’ reasonable ceiling would now double their number of Governors. That’s… certainly something! The GOP did avert a massive own-goal in Massachusetts, however.

[Blackacre]

Last post-primary update! Not waiting at all because NY is Safe D no matter whether Cuomo or Nixon takes the W. So sit back, because we have a doozy coming up. (Rhode Island remains a tossup)

First, a pair of states leave the Leans Window on either side: Michigan and Tennessee. This is due to the frontrunner on each side pulling away in the polls. Marist could be an outlier on the TN end of things but honestly my priors have the state straddling the line between Lean and Likely so Marist is enough to shift that rating. And Michigan is frankly almost entirely gone for the GOP.

Second, Nevada moves from Tilts Democratic to Leans. Polling will never be reliable in Nevada this cycle, Laxalt is too far to the right for the state, and Sisolak is buoyed by Rosen in the Senate race.

It will be joined by Florida, something I’m saying with a mouthful of crow. All the energy in this race is with Gillum, all of the gaffes are with DeSantis, and while quality polling is sparse, it does show Gillum with a decent lead. This is a Leans Democratic race.

Finally, I’m removing the “might be competitive in the future” clause entirely from the Safe ratings. Now that primary season is over, Safe is Safe. With that, some of the Safe ratings I had previously no longer belong there without that caveat. There were three states that had it: Pennsylvania, Idaho, and Vermont. PA can stay where it is due to the overwhelming polling advantage he has and the strength of the national environment in the state. However, Vermont moves down to Likely due to a clause that allows the legislature to choose the Governor if no majority is reached on election day, which gives Phil Scott a potential lose condition. As for Idaho, there’s enough uncertainty in that race for me to be uncomfortable giving it a perfectly certain rating, so down to Likely it goes as well.

edit: Holy Stitt, I forgot to look at any new polls! That Fox News poll showing Ducey with a clear lead is enough for me to move Arizona from Tossup to Leans Republican.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
MN, CO, CT, NM, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, ME, NV, FL

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
GA, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
RI, OH, KS, OK

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
NH, AZ

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (7)
MD, SD, SC, NE, TN, ID, VT

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (5)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.8, R-8.2
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.7, R-8.1
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+9.2, R-8.6
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+22, R-21
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+1, R+0
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

Because the Safe rating is now absolute, I have included the Absolute Ceilings for each party for the lulz. Notably, the Reasonable Republican Ceiling does not include a net pickup for the party. We also have a situation where, for the first time in any of my rankings ever, the Leans-only formula is better for Republicans than the pure Uncorrelated formula.

In addition, now that 538’s Senate model is up, I will be retiring my Senate ratings. They’re incredibly outdated by now anyway, and I wish to focus entirely on 2018’s Gubernatorial contests.

[Blackacre]

It's time to talk about Oregon. Initially I was bearish on Kate Brown because of polling that showed her tied or even behind her Republican opponent. However, two things have happened that caused me to change my mind. First, I made a deliberate effort to banish all junk polls (everything rated C+ -- the rating of lolgravis -- and below on 538) from my consideration, which removed everything in Oregon except a 17 point lead Brown had in January. But now a credible poll has just come out showing Brown up by 10. As such, Oregon exits the Leans window.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (7)
MN, CO, CT, OR, NM, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
ME, NV, FL

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
GA, IA, WI

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
RI, OH, KS, OK

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
NH, AZ

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (7)
MD, SD, SC, NE, TN, ID, VT

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (5)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.0, R-8.4
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.0, R-8.4
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+9.2, R-8.6
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+22, R-21
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+2, R+1
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

Leans-Only and Uncorrelated are aligned once again, and the Reasonable Republican Ceiling has gotten a little worse for the GOP. It's actually not that much worse for Dems than some of the actual predictions I've seen, so...

[Blackacre]

Time for this week's Rating Change Roundup!! Today, I have four changes for your viewing pleasure.

Let's get the bad news for Democrats out of the way. Colorado is entering the Leans window, leaving the Likely D category, I'm doing this because now the polls are mattering more than my priors, and polling in Colorado doesn't show Polis running away with this race. To the contrary, his leads are in the mid single digits. A future poll could upend this race completely, but for now, I have to acknowledge that this is indeed a real contest.

Next up, South Carolina. Similar change (Likely R to Lean R) and the same reasoning: polls don't show a McCaster walk. Actually polls are kind of all over the place. There's an R+11 and an R+4, which averages to R+7.5, which is sort of the border of Lean and Likely given SC's inelasticity and partisan lean. However, there is one factor here that plays to Democrats' advantage: special elections. South Carolina has had 7 of them, with an average swing of >17 points leftward. That is huge. In fact, it's better than specials in some Likely D races like Michigan and Minnesota.  Like with Iowa, I feel like Special elections are an underrated factor and that ignoring it causes people to overestimate the GOP.

Now, it's Wisconsin time. Walker hasn't led a poll since August. But that was true already, and those leads included a Walker+4, so what gives? Here's what gives: the only polls showing a tie or Walker lead among B- or higher rated polls (as per 538) were Marquette University Law School polls. The latest Marquette shows Evers up by 4 or 5. So there is now a much clearer consensus on the direction of the race. As such, I am now comfortable moving Wisconsin from Tilts D to Leans D.

Finally, Rhode Island. This one.... is tricky. It's not a tossup anymore, thanks to a Fleming & Associates poll that shows Raimondo up by 7. Their previous poll was a D+2, and the only other pollster I care about here is a SocialSphere poll from June that showed a tie. So that averages to D+3.5, which should be either a tilt or a lean. On one hand, Fung is not up in any poll I care about. On the other, the Fleming & Associates poll was 43 to 36, indicating a lot of undecided voters. This creates uncertainty, which kinda sucks. So I'm moving the race for now to Tilts Democratic, pending further data.

edit: I'm sorry, there's one more change: Georgia gets a long-overdue move to Tossup.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
MN, CT, OR, NM, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (5)
CO, ME, NV, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
RI, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
OH, KS, OK, GA

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
AK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (3)
SC, NH, AZ

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (6)
MD, SD, NE, TN, ID, VT

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (5)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.1, R-8.6
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.1, R-8.6
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+9.6, R-9.1
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+22, R-21
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+16, R-15
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+1, R+0*
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

*I calculated this wrong last time

[Blackacre]

Okay, as we move into October, it’s time for two updates with a common theme: polling takes priority now over priors, (except in Nevada) and lack of polling indicates uncertainty. Both South Dakota and Maine have a severe lack of polling. The most recent poll from Maine shows a tie, and from South Dakota, it shows a Democratic lead of 3 points. These were either old polls or internals so they don’t get face-value treatment but they do help convey uncertainty. Therefore, while Maine is still Dem-favored and SD is still GOP-favored, they move to their respective Tilts categories until we get new decent public polling to work with.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me. I am altering the Leans rating to be 75%/25% odds rather than the weirder 75.4% to 24.6% that mimics Pokemon. As it stands right now this will benefit Republicans by 0.6% of a Governor’s mansion, which is such a small number that I doubt it will be noticed.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
MN, CT, OR, NM, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
CO, NV, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
RI, ME, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
OH, KS, OK, GA

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
AK, SD

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (3)
SC, NH, AZ

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
MD, NE, TN, ID, VT

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (5)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.3, R-8.7
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.4, R-8.8
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+9.6, R-9.1
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+22, R-21
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+17, R-16
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+1, R+0
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

We’re really going to need good public polling in, not just those 2 states, but Georgia, Oklahoma, and Kansas as well. Also, I should point out that Nebraska has ZERO polling of any quality, and neither does Vermont or Wyoming. Someone needs to get on that. I’d even take a GRAVIS if it was the only game in town.

[Blackacre]

Alaska moves to Leans Republican, and Spenstar cries himself to sleep.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me. I am altering the Leans rating to be 75%/25% odds rather than the weirder 75.4% to 24.6% that mimics Pokemon. As it stands right now this will benefit Republicans by 0.6% of a Governor’s mansion, which is such a small number that I doubt it will be noticed.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
MN, CT, OR, NM, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
CO, NV, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
RI, ME, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
OH, KS, OK, GA

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
SD

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (4)
AK, SC, NH, AZ

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
MD, NE, TN, ID, VT

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (5)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.10, R-8.35
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.20, R-8.45
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+9.20, R-8.20
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+22, R-21
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+17, R-16
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+1, R+0
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

The Expected Results are now rounding to the nearest .01 instead of the nearest .1 because of Alaska. Dems have a 25% chance of winning there as per the Lean rating, so outside Tilts-only all R losses will be .75 lower than the D gain.

[Blackacre]

God, it's been AGES since I've updated this map. In that time, a lot of races have shifted, 538 put out their model, and Kav has come and gone. Unlike my Senate maps, which were invalidated by 538, my gubernatorial maps will stay alive, mainly because I have some disagreements with 538's predictions.

So how have things changed since September? Let's go through every single adjustment I've got.

First, we're basically cleaning out the Leans Republican ranking. Of the four states in that category before, three no longer belong there. In Arizona and New Hampshire, it's become very clear the Republican incumbent is holding on to his job, so they move to Likely. Alaska, however, is more interesting. The race is officially two-way, which means no more vote-splitting, which means it goes back to the Tilts Republican rating it had before. Dulvaney is still favored, but Begich has a real, strong, fighting chance.

On the other side of things, the Tilts Democratic rating is also shedding its former membership. Maine moves to Leans Democratic, the only ratings change I have that's primarily due to 538. Since September, Rhode Island has gone the way of Arizona, but in the other direction. It moves to Likely Democratic alongside its sister state Connecticut. Speaking of former tossup states moving toward one party, Oklahoma is going from Tossup to Tilts Republican.

Next up we have a few races moving towards the middle due to uncertainty, whether that be because of lack of polling or the state's own, um, issues. Nevada goes from Leans D to Tilts, and South Dakota goes from Tilts R to Tossup and Vermont goes from Likely R to Leans.

Finally, two states will join the Safe category, one for each party. The first is Maryland. Ben Jealous really does not have a prayer and Hogan has been leading by 15+ points again and again. The other actually breaks one of my longtime rules. I have always been against rating a state as a safe flip, but seeing where this particular race is going, I am making a lone exception for Michigan. Illinois is open to being in the Safe camp, but Pritzker has a hard time hitting 50 whenever someone polls the state, which creates uncertainty.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (5)
CA, NY, HI, PA, MI

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
MN, CT, OR, RI, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
CO, ME, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
NV, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
OH, KS, SD, GA

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
AK, OK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
SC, VT

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NE, TN, ID, NH, AZ

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (6)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA, MD

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
lmao

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.4, R-8.4
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.5, R-8.5
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+10.00, R-9.0
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+21, R-20
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+16, R-15
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+2, R-1
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+5, D-4

Looks like things improved overall for Dems, probably mainly because of the shift in Rhode Island. Most of everything else is canceled out by a different change. (SD and Oklahoma traded spots, Maine and Nevada traded spots, Michigan and Maryland moved from likely to safe, etc) The biggest improvement came from the tilts-only calculation, which makes sense because the Tilts D category got cut in half while the Tilt R one actually grew. Also, because the number of Tilt D and Tilt R races are the same, Tilts-only is literally the outcome that would happen if both parties won everything they were favored in and split the tossups: D+10.

Edit: I am an idiot regarding Alaska. No matter what, because Alaska is neither D held nor R held, the party that makes overall gains in governorships will have one more gain than the other party loses. The only way to avert that would have been a Bill Walker victory, but he dropped out.

[Blackacre]

I apologize for the quick ratings change and the double post, but a new poll from a B ranked pollster gives Polis a 12 point edge in Colorado. The state hasn't had much quality polling, and already was on the borderline between Lean D and Likely D, so  this is enough to move the state in my view to Likely Democratic. Notably, Colorado was the only Democratic-held governorship in the Leans window before now. For the first time, every race in the Lean Window is a potential Democratic pickup. (ie the only opportunities the GOP have to pick up Dem-held seats are outside that window. Alaska, held by an independent, does not count.)

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (5)
CA, NY, HI, PA, MI

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (7)
MN, CT, OR, RI, CO, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
ME, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
NV, IA

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
OH, KS, SD, GA

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
AK, OK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
SC, VT

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NE, TN, ID, NH, AZ

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (6)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA, MD

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
lmao

Democrats: 24 Governorships
Republicans: 22 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.55, R-8.55
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.75, R-8.75
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+10.00, R-9.0
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+21, R-20
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+16, R-15
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+3, R-2
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+5, D-4

Democrats' gubernatorial hopes are looking better and better. This is not due to tossups shifting in their favor -- the number of tossups is the same as usual and Ohio hasn't budged once since these ratings began. (Georgia's staying right where it is, too) Nor have Republican-favored seats suddenly gotten more competitive. South Dakota has, but that's the only super-notable one, and indeed states like Arizona and New Hampshire have gotten worse for Dems. Instead, Democrats are doing better because they're shoring up the states they're already favored in, such as Rhode Island and now Colorado. Dems how have almost as few Leaning seats as the GOP, only one fewer safe seat, and exactly as many tilts, but in exchange they have a ton more Likely states, which is a lot more valuable for them. I'm going to heavily anticipate more polling from Iowa and Maine, two states that I think Dems could also shore up. Each race moving toward Dems by one category would put them past D+10 on both the Leans-only and Tilts-only formulas, and dangerously close on Uncorrelated. Maine is borderline as is, with solid high single digit leads in the last 3 polls. The main thing holding it back, in fact, is that two of those polls were by pollsters that didn't have 538 rankings. Give us that same kind of result from a Quinnipiac or a CNN or something and I will give it another look.

However, I'm also keeping an eye on Oregon. Its Likely D rating is very fragile and one more poll showing Brown with a narrow lead would be enough to shift it down and reverse this trend. And speaking of Likely window states, SOMEONE PLEASE POLL NEBRASKA!!!

[Blackacre]

Alright, with 3 days left to go until the midterms, I'm ready to put out my final gubernatorial predictions. This will be my last map update. It's been a wild ride, so thanks everybody for sharing it with me.

First, I think I jumped the gun in Michigan, so I'm moving it back to a "mere" likely Democratic. Next, Oregon and Maine are trading places. I'm also moving Connecticut back down to Leans Democratic, making this the only time Connecticut is rated less Democratic than Rhode Island. This is because of tightening polls, and one other race is also shifting due to tightening polls: New Hampshire. It moves to Leans Republican because of a late shift in most polls away from Sununu.

Alright, it's time for my final ratings change. And it involves the creation of a new category. Probable Independent will be replaced with Probable Runoff. This is for races where I can be fairly confident that we will not actually know the victor after election night has come and gone. I will not say anything about who would be favored in the follow-up election. And yes, of course, this rating is reserved for Georgia. (however, for purposes of calculating expected results, I will be treating Georgia as though it is a tossup)

edit: whoops! I was made aware of recent polling changes in a pair of states. Ohio is moving more in Cordray's direction, and Alaska is tightening. Accordingly, they have now changed to Tilts D from tossup and to Tossup from Tilts R respectively.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (7)
MN, RI, CO, NM, ME, IL, MI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, CT, FL, WI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
NV, IA, OH

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (3)
AK, KS, SD

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
OK

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (3)
SC, VT, NH

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (4)
NE, TN, ID, AZ

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (6)
AL, TX, AR, WY, MA, MD

Probable Runoff: It is more likely than not that this race will not be decided on election night. (1)
GA

Democrats: 25 Governorships
Republicans: 21 Governorships
Pure tossup: 3 Governorships
Advancing to Runoff: 1 Governorship
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+9.65, R-8.65
Leans-only Expected Result: D+9.95, R-8.95
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+10.20, R-9.20
Absolute Democratic Ceiling: D+21, R-20
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+17, R-16
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: D+2, R-1
Absolute Republican Ceiling: R+6, D-5

Nobody ever did poll Nebraska-gov...

My final takeaway is this: Democrats are in a really strong position to regain a lot of what they lost under Obama, and then some. They're favored to pick up 8 seats, with 4 more potential gains as tossups. However, everything is on shaky ground. Democrats continue to have a problem with locking in the places they're favored in, but Republicans started to have that problem too later on. It's easy to see a scenario where Democrats come up painfully short, or a scenario where the dam breaks and Democrats gain a metric ton of seats.

Pay attention to the polls, and also pay attention to fundraising and past special election performances. That's why Republicans aren't gigantic favorites in New Hampshire or in South Carolina, compared to say Arizona or Tennessee. And above all, have fun. I'll probably be wrong about the topline result in a few places at least, (hey thats why there's a lot of races that I don't have as Safe) and that's okay.

But if you want something to quote me on for posterity, to either rub in my face or use to boost my cred, then here it is: I expect Democrats to gain on net 9 to 11 seats.