Edge of your seat 2016
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Author Topic: Edge of your seat 2016  (Read 271 times)
JA
Jacobin American
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 06, 2016, 11:54:25 PM »

The following is a huge "what if" and its likelihood of happening is incredibly slim, but not entirely implausible. I'm not some expert at creating things like this, so if my numbers don't entirely line up with what the wonks would know to be accurate, please don't attack me for it. Treat this for what it is: purely hypothetical and for "fun." Imagine if this is what you watched occurring on Tuesday, November 8th as the election results come in...

Polls Closing at 7pm

At 7pm the first of the polls (save the ones in Indiana and Kentucky that close at 6:30pm) and the first round of states are able to be counted and declared by the media agencies. The first state of the 2016 Presidential General Election to be called is Kentucky, which is a win for Donald Trump (C - 0, T - 08). The second state to be declared, minutes after Kentucky, is Indiana, which is another state won by Donald Trump (C - 0, T - 19). They are then able to declare the winner of the great state of Vermont, which is called for Hillary Clinton (C - 3, T - 19). Following Vermont is South Carolina, which is called uncomfortably early for Donald Trump (C - 3, T - 28). Currently behind in the electoral vote count, Clinton is quickly able to start making up this deficit by clinching Virginia just before 7:30pm (C - 16, T - 28). Georgia is too close for the media outlets to call by the time the next round of state polls close.

As it stands as of 7:29pm

Georgia - Too close to call (50% Trump / 48% Clinton - 12% reporting)
Indiana - Trump (54% Trump / 40% Clinton - 22% reporting)
Kentucky - Trump (66% Trump / 31% Clinton - 23% reporting)
South Carolina - Trump (53% Trump / 45% Clinton - 13% reporting)
Vermont - Clinton (66% Clinton / 28% Trump - 16% reporting)
Virginia - Clinton (54% Clinton / 44% Trump - 11% reporting)

Polls closing at 7:30pm

Immediately upon polls closing in this next round of states, Trump clinches another victory with the declaration of West Virginia for the Republican nominee (C - 16, T - 33). By 7:59pm neither North Carolina nor Ohio could yet be called for either candidate as the race remains too close. Georgia also remains too close to call.

Georgia - Too close to call (51% Trump / 48% Clinton - 18% reporting)
North Carolina - Too close to call (49% Trump / 49% Clinton - 6% reporting)
Ohio - Too close to call (49% Trump / 47% Clinton - 5% reporting)
West Virginia - Trump (70% Trump / 27% Clinton - 8% reporting)

Polls closing at 8pm

The polls closing at 8pm altogether account for 172 electoral votes. Upon initial reports, the following states could be declared for Donald Trump: Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Tennessee; the following states could be declared for Hillary Clinton: Delaware, Maine 1, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Washington DC (C - 48, T - 76). The next state to be declared, at 8:10pm, is New Jersey for Hillary Clinton (C - 62, T - 76). Following New Jersey is the triumph of Clinton in Connecticut (C - 69, T - 76). Those are all of the states the networks are willing to declare before the next round of poll closings at 8:30pm. The following states are too close or too early to call: Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maine 2, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.

Alabama - Trump (62% Trump / 37% Clinton - 4% reporting)
Connecticut - Clinton (54% Clinton / 42% Trump - 7% reporting)
Delaware - Clinton (56% Clinton / 41% Trump - 12% reporting)
Florida - Too close to call (50% Trump / 48% Clinton - 4% reporting)
Georgia - Too early to call (52% Trump / 46% Clinton - 24% reporting)
Illinois - Too early to call (54% Clinton / 44% Trump - 7% reporting)
Maine - Too early to call (54% Clinton / 43% Trump - 10% reporting)
Maine 1 - Clinton (56% Clinton / 40% Trump - 11% reporting)
Maine 2 - Too early to call (50% Trump / 44% Clinton - 8% reporting)
Maryland - Clinton (68% Clinton / 30% Trump - 5% reporting)
Massachusetts - Clinton (64% Clinton / 32% Trump - 6% reporting)
Mississippi - Trump (53% Trump / 46% Clinton - 6% reporting)
Missouri - Trump (59% Trump / 37% Clinton - 4% reporting)
New Hampshire - Too close to call (48% Clinton / 48% Trump - 9% reporting)
New Jersey - Clinton (54% Clinton / 43% Trump - 8% reporting)
North Carolina - Too close to call (49% Clinton / 48% Trump - 13% reporting)
Ohio - Too close to call (50% Trump / 47% Clinton - 13% reporting)
Oklahoma - Trump (78% Trump / 20% Clinton - 5% reporting)
Pennsylvania - Too early to call (52% Trump / 44% Clinton - 6% reporting)
Rhode Island - Clinton (58% Clinton / 38% Trump - 10% reporting)
Tennessee - Trump (66% Trump / 33% Clinton - 7% reporting)
Washington, DC - Clinton (93% Clinton, 1% Trump - 10% reporting)

Polls closing at 8:30pm

At 8:30pm, polls close in the state of Arkansas and with their closing, the state is called for Donald Trump (C - 69, T - 82). Prior to the next round of poll closings, two more states were called. First, Illinois is called for Hillary Clinton only a few minutes after Arkansas (C - 89, T - 82). Second, following Illinois, is the state of Maine for Hillary Clinton (C - 91, T - 82). Every other state is either too close or too early to call.

Arkansas - Trump (71% Trump / 24% Clinton - 6% reporting)
Florida - Too close to call (49% Trump / 48% Clinton - 9% reporting)
Georgia - Too early to call (51% Trump / 46% Clinton - 32% reporting)
Maine - Clinton (52% Clinton / 43% Trump - 21% reporting)
Maine 2 - Too early to call (51% Trump / 43% Clinton - 20% reporting)
New Hampshire - Too close to call (49% Trump / 47% Clinton - 16% reporting)
North Carolina - Too close to call (49% Trump / 49% Clinton - 18% reporting)
Ohio - Too early to call (50% Trump / 45% Clinton - 19% reporting)
Pennsylvania - Too close to call (49% Trump / 47% Clinton - 16% reporting)
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JA
Jacobin American
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 11:56:14 PM »

Polls closing at 9pm

The second largest number of electoral votes will be available at this time. Soon after the poll closing in these states, Donald Trump is declared the winner in the following: Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, Nebraska 1, Nebraska 3, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming; Hillary Clinton is declared the winner in the following: New York (C - 120, T - 109). Finally, the state of Georgia is able to be declared for Donald Trump (C - 120, T - 125). After Georgia, the state of New Mexico is declared to have been won by Hillary Clinton (C - 125, T - 125). However, Clinton's celebration is short lived as Donald Trump is declared the winner of Maine's 2nd District (C - 125, T - 126). While still holding the lead, the races remain tight in the states of Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin.

Arizona - Too close to call (48% Trump / 47% Clinton - 10% reporting)
Colorado - Too close to call (49% Clinton / 43% Trump - 11% reporting)
Florida - Too close to call (49% Clinton / 49% Trump - 20% reporting)
Georgia - Trump (52% Trump / 46% Clinton - 48% reporting)
Kansas - Trump (58% Trump / 38% Clinton - 12% reporting)
Louisiana - Trump (57% Trump / 40% Clinton - 11% reporting)
Maine 2 - Trump (51% Trump / 43% Clinton - 52% reporting)
Michigan - Too close to call (48% Clinton / 48% Trump - 18% reporting)
Minnesota - Too close to call (49% Trump / 45% Clinton - 15% reporting)
Nebraska - Trump (61% Trump / 33% Clinton - 19% reporting)
Nebraska 1 - Trump (60% Trump / 33% Clinton - 18% reporting)
Nebraska 2 - Too early to call (50% Trump / 44% Clinton - 20% reporting)
Nebraska 3 - Trump (73% Trump / 22% Clinton - 19% reporting)
New Hampshire - Too close to call (48% Clinton / 47% Trump - 43% reporting)
New Mexico - Clinton (55% Clinton / 34% Trump - 11% reporting)
New York - Clinton (61% Clinton / 36% Trump - 12% reporting)
North Carolina - Too close to call (49% Clinton / 49% Trump - 38% reporting)
North Dakota - Trump (65% Trump / 28% Clinton - 16% reporting)
Ohio - Too early to call (50% Trump / 46% Clinton - 42% reporting)
Pennsylvania - Too close to call (48% Trump / 48% Clinton - 38% reporting)
South Dakota - Trump (58% Trump / 35% Clinton - 15% reporting)
Texas - Too early to call (50% Trump / 46% Clinton - 10% reporting)
Wisconsin - Too early to call (51% Clinton / 44% Trump - 19% reporting)
Wyoming - Trump (70% Trump / 21% Clinton - 14% reporting)

Polls closing at 10pm

At 10pm, one more state was able to be declared as the polls close in four states. Donald Trump is declared the winner of Montana (C - 125, T - 129). After Montana is declared, the state of Utah is also called for Donald Trump (C - 125, T - 135). Within the 10pm hour, an additional four states and one congressional district are called. By 10:30pm, Donald Trump is declared the winner of Texas (C - 125, T - 173). Fifteen minutes later, Trump is also declared the winner of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district and the state of Ohio, which is a must win for Trump (C - 125, T - 192). Hillary Clinton receives two states just before the 11 o'clock hour, when she is declared the winner of Colorado and Wisconsin (C - 144, T - 192). All the other states remain too competitive for an official call to be made.

Arizona - Too close to call (47% Trump / 47% Clinton - 24% reporting)
Colorado - Clinton (49% Clinton / 43% Trump - 33% reporting)
Florida - Too close to call (50% Clinton / 48% Trump - 38% reporting)
Iowa - Too early to call (52% Trump / 42% Clinton - 16% reporting)
Michigan - Too close to call (48% Trump / 48% Clinton - 40% reporting)
Minnesota - Too close to call (48% Clinton / 45% Trump - 34% reporting)
Montana - Trump (58% Trump / 33% Clinton - 12% reporting)
Nebraska 2 - Trump (50% Trump / 45% Clinton - 43% reporting)
Nevada - Too early to call (51% Clinton / 43% Trump - 16% reporting)
New Hampshire - Too close to call (48% Clinton / 48% Trump - 59% reporting)
North Carolina - Too close to call (49% Clinton / 49% Trump - 50% reporting)
Ohio - Trump (50% Trump / 46% Clinton - 58% reporting)
Pennsylvania - Too close to call (48% Clinton / 47% Trump - 52% reporting)
Utah - Trump (42% Trump / 28% Clinton - 13% reporting)
Wisconsin - Clinton (51% Clinton / 44% Trump - 36% reporting)

Polls closing at 11pm

All of the states whose polls closed at 11pm were called within minutes of the poll closings. The first state to be declared is California for Hillary Clinton (C - 199, T - 192). The next two states to be declared are Hawaii and Idaho, the former declared for Hillary Clinton and the latter for Donald Trump (C - 203, T - 196). Within ten minutes the states of Oregon and Washington are declared for Hillary Clinton (C - 222, T - 196). Then, another swing state is declared; Iowa is called for Donald Trump (C - 222, T - 202). By midnight there is no definitive winner as several important states are still too close or too early to call. But then at 12:15 the state of Minnesota is called for Hillary Clinton (C - 232, T - 202). At 12:30 another state is called, this time it is Arizona for Donald Trump (C - 232, T - 213). Then, Nevada is finally called for Hillary Clinton after a prolonged period of cautious restraint (C - 238, T - 213). No other state is called before the final poll closing at 1am.

Arizona - Trump (48% Trump / 45% Clinton - 53% reporting)
California - Clinton (71% Clinton / 24% Trump - 13% reporting)
Florida - Too early to call (51% Clinton / 48% Trump - 53% reporting)
Hawaii - Clinton (67% Clinton / 28% Trump - 18% reporting)
Idaho - Trump (54% Trump / 34% Clinton - 22% reporting)
Iowa - Trump (50% Trump / 45% Clinton - 41% reporting)
Michigan - Too close to call (48% Trump / 47% Clinton - 68% reporting)
Minnesota - Clinton (49% Clinton / 45% Trump - 71% reporting)
Nevada - Clinton (50% Clinton / 45% Trump - 49% reporting)
New Hampshire - Too close to call (48% Trump / 48% Clinton - 80% reporting)
North Carolina - Too close to call (49% Trump / 48% Clinton - 72% reporting)
Oregon - Clinton (54% Clinton / 39% Trump - 17% reporting)
Pennsylvania - Too close to call (48% Clinton / 48% Trump - 76% reporting)
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JA
Jacobin American
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2016, 11:56:49 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2016, 12:11:00 AM by Jacobin American »

Polls closing at 1am

The final poll to close is in the great state of Alaska. However, no call for the state could immediately be made as the race appeared too close. It wouldn't be until 3:30am that the next state would be called; at that time, North Carolina is called for Donald Trump (C - 238, T - 228). The polls remain tight in the remaining states throughout the night. It is not until 4am that the next state could be called; at this time Florida is called for Hillary Clinton (C - 267, T - 228). Clinton needs to win only one of the remaining states in order to become the next President of the United States. By 4:30am another state is called, this time it is Michigan for Donald Trump (C - 267, T - 244). At 5am, Alaska is called for Donald Trump (C - 267, T - 247). Only two states remain - New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Then, at 5:30am the state of Pennsylvania is finally called. If Clinton clinches this state, she will be declared President-elect. The announcers declare that Pennsylvania has been called for Donald Trump (C - 267, T - 267). At this point, whomever wins New Hampshire wins the election. At 7am the results from this incredibly close state are able to be called. After counting the ballots throughout the night, New Hampshire is ready to inform the nation as to whom our next commander-in-chief shall be. With much anticipation, the news breaks that New Hampshire is ready to be called for Hillary Clinton (C - 271, T - 267).

Alaska - Trump (48% Trump / 44% Clinton - 78% reported)
Florida - Clinton (50% Clinton / 47% Trump - 98% reported)
Michigan - Trump (48% Trump / 48% Clinton - 99% reported)
New Hampshire - Clinton (48% Clinton / 47% Trump - 99% reported)
North Carolina - Trump (49% Trump / 48% Clinton - 99% reported)
Pennsylvania - Trump (48% Trump / 48% Clinton - 99% reported)

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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2016, 11:59:49 PM »

#AKFTW
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2016, 12:21:13 AM »

Doesn't that map give Trump 271 EV's?
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JA
Jacobin American
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2016, 12:46:35 AM »

Doesn't that map give Trump 271 EV's?

Nope. I'm not sure if you saw the first map with AK Democratic and NH Republican (which would have been 270 Clinton), but I meant to switch that so I edited that post to fix it and now Clinton has 271.
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