Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[dax00]

You can check my predictions in the appropriate thread. I don't do games, I really think she is as likely to win 3 states as she is likely to win 2 states!

I agree! She is as likely to win 3 states (0%) as she is to win two states (0%).

[dax00]

What does everyone think will be the final delegate total for the day by itself?  Don't think of all the prior contests or super delegates, but just today.

I will trust my Google Trends prediction and say Bernie 99, Hillary 43.

[dax00]

The delegate haul becomes 80% Bernie, 20% Hillary if this is true.

Did the undecided switch or something? 45-18 & 4-1 is strange!

The undecided would not be viable. 63 viable votes. 5(45/63)= 3.57; 5(18/63)= 1.43; 5 is a greater first decimal than 4, so Bernie gets the remaining delegate.

So what I'm getting is that my Google Trends prediction of Bernie getting 71.8% of the vote in Washington is about right on the money.

[dax00]

14 hours ago, I predicted Bernie would get about 72% in Washington. I see no reason to have my prediction deviate anyhow from 72%.

[dax00]

If he can make margins this big in these states + CA + most of the remaining states -MD and NY, then we might be onto something.

No-way he is making these margins other places. And honestly does not need to either. He needs 60%+ in CA & he will still get 6-7 big wins.

I don't think he can win but theoretically he has to beat her (maybe narrowly - not lose) in NY, PA, NJ, PR, MD which I don't see happening

https://www.change.org/p/the-young-turks-dnc-debate-on-the-young-turks
If somehow the candidates get an April debate on The Young Turks, Bernie's popular vote could easily increase by over 5% in all the states thereafter.

[dax00]

Ok I'm lost with this election system, so every precinct elects delegates for what? are they all gonna elect the 101 delegates later on?

This stage (tier 1) elects ~27000 precinct delegates. The 27000 precinct delegates get together later (tier 2) to elect ~1400 district delegates. The 1400 district delegates get together after that to elect the 67 actual delegates. And after that (at the Congressional District Caucuses), 34 more are chosen based on today's popular vote, to round off the 101 total.

[dax00]

Why do these wealthier precincts vote clinton when sanders is less religious?

Religion is a non-issue, until crazy far-right wing people try to enforce it.

[dax00]

Does anyone know if anybody has live splits of the Washington caucus results by CD? If so, where?

[dax00]

Sorry if this was mentioned before, but does Alaska have a 15% threshold?

Clinton will get to keep whatever district delegates she has now, even if she does fall below 15%. If she doesn't have 15% on May 14 (State Convention), all 16 pledged delegates in Alaska would go to Sanders.

At least that's how I interpret Alaska.

[dax00]

I'm prepared to hold my nose and vote for either candidate in November, but let's dispel with this fiction that Clinton is more electable than Sanders. The polls simply prove that wrong. The only two things Hillary has going for her in GE electability are support from neocons (who are starting to openly endorse her) and the fact that her reputation among independents is so damaged that even the dirtiest attacks from Trump cannot make it any worse. (which is actually quite a compelling argument in her favor, but still)

You are joking, right? Those polls don't mean sh*t as Sanders has never been attacked from Hillary or the Republicans.

wow... absolutely incorrigible - my first ignore on this forum.

[dax00]

Well, I don't know how they're dividing up the precincts, because according to NYT, King county only has 17 precincts to report, which is way fewer than in general elections. Usually, my precinct number is 36-1813, but if it's by zip code, then it's 91899.

By precinct, they mean caucus location. I've been scouring the net for precinct info - no luck.

[dax00]

CNN has Alaska 100% reporting, with Sanders winning 80.7% to 19.3%.

So not one Atlas prediction was right (nobody has Bernie >80%)

My prediction on page 1 of the prediction thread had him at 81% in AK lol

[dax00]

Could Hawaii be any slower?

yeah, give 'em all chichis and play mellow steel drum music - you bet it could be slower. sanders reddit says official results around top of next hour.

[dax00]

I predicted a 73-28 split last night ... although I hope it's 74-27, which is still possible.

[dax00]

Maybe if you do a vote dance, the results will come quicker -.-

[dax00]

But asians hate Bernie?!? Amirite?

Asians are less disenfranchised than white people. They're also more reasonable, from what I can tell. The only more reasonable minority group is Native Americans.

[dax00]

Is Hawaii just going to stay at 88% in?

The last 12% was supposed to come in an hour ago. Who knows?

[dax00]

The rest of Hawaiʻi's numbers are in:
Sanders 69.8%, 23,530 votes, 17 delegates
Clinton 30.0%, 10,125 votes, 8 delegates
(33,716 total, 100%)

So Sanders got less than 68.75% in HI-1?